Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom Yes I like bdev, but fave is psn, �1.2Bn cash! Also worth a look rdw, bwy, bkgh, and possibly csp. BoL

Hi Johnson Great article, psn and tw my biggest investments and also hold bdev. Have to have a look at purp but not sure I want to invest in that type of business. BoL

Hi NInvestor You are about to discover a new strategy if you compare fundamentals of BP, BT, Vod � with builders - look at debt Margins, Eps and Sp growth in comparison. Only one winner. BoL

Hi Camboy Great company, my only worry is the power behind it SM must be getting old, and last time he took a back seat the company went backwards. He sorted it out, but now is trying to take a back seat again. Hope he has replaced himself with a cluey guy. There must always be a compromise between Divis and growth - ie if you can use profits to increase earnings you will grow faster, but shareholders get less. Little bit worried about cash held in comparison to other builders. I hold bkgh, bdev, bwy, psn, rdw and tw and move a float between them as RNS's/Divis come up. At the moment Divis from bdev, tw and psn so good, just don't need much sp growth. BoL

Hi TommyR Either Brokers don't believe tw numbers or they are fools. Personally I think they have their own agenda, and truth is not part of it, so I ignore them. The lower the price falls the greater the yield and I am quite happy picking up the divis - particularly if over 10%. BoL

Hi Owls As you say having 80% in 1 sector sounds risky, but not really - they can' go bust cos they have so much cash, if the Sp goes down just hold (or buy more) and pic up divis (already almost 10%, sp goes down then over 10%). So safe as houses! Or are they famous last words? BoL

Hi Tom and Sean Charts etc say tw should be 260+ now, because that is what they are worth. Market sentiment is so -ve that is why they are sub 200 now. Where do they go now? Either they could hover around 190 to 210 over the summer (in which case I will just hold) or there will be a gradual rerating, based on the last RNS promising a yield of almost 10%, or something between the two. Or, they might stay the same or go up a bit or if Bash is right go down a lot. Think I've covered all eventualities. Sp in 2 weeks is no more than a guess, say 196. BoL

Hi Bamps Almost 40 years since I was in building and obviously things have changed a lot since then. No doubt 2008 will have put out of business a lot of builders suppliers, so now we have to Import more. I read one of the big Builders (almost sure it was psn) have made their own Brick works. Mexican concrete, French cement? ****potical really, at least the bulk materials will be produced in this country even if owned by foreigners. BoL

Nother Nutcase, should get together with Bash and create the revolution! Dangerous if they have more than 1 brain cell between them. Nice to see some support on this board - cos its my biggest investment at the moment (best builder). BoL to holders.

Hi Owls You paint a bleak picture. Brexit (for no reason!) hit builders more than any other Sector, and now a possible trade war. British houses are built by British people by British Companies for British people, with very little imported materials. The companies now have loads of cash (unlike 2008), Per's at all time lows, while Margin, Eps and Divis at all time highs. As the � decreases in value, we will get even more foreign buyers, so Govt cannot afford to repatriate foreign (subcontract) workers. All political parties promise to build more houses, and who is going to build them? Cash cushion means they can't go bust, and increase in house building by Govt will increase profits - if it ever happens. Govt says they want small builders to build the new housing after driving ?? % (can't remember) into bankruptcy 10 years ago. Safe as houses and I suggest you look at psn, rdw, tw, bwy and bdev and possibly bkgh, csp, crst and bvs (based in London/SE which is suffering a bit at the moment). Rather than looking at Sp have a look at Eps, and find some reason Sp does not reflect Eps - then we could have a good argument! That's why my Port is 80%+ builders, and doing very nicely since 2013. Look forward to hearing from you and BoL

Hi TommyR There doesn't seem to be any fixed plan, many people have suggested that the Sp would do better if the special divi was spread over the Int and final. Psn div last year Int 25, Final 110, this year Int 125, final 110 so no idea really. BoL

Hi Tom Where do we go from here? Last year sp took 14 weeks to recover (not 7 as I think I said previously - can't read my own graphs!) Year before it didn't really recover but coincided with Brexit. Hope this year back to 205 in 5 weeks, 210 (the price I need) in 10 weeks. Great to see Helena and Ice are back - just hope they have time to send a few messages, and also good to see so many comments, almost 100 today. BoL

Hi TommyR All the Divis I have mentioned are Historic. Perspective Divi/Yield depends on future trends and we don't know what they are yet. Psn kept to their initial statement (and actually exceeded it), but this doesn't mean tw will. I am a great fan of psn and bwy (which has been struggling recently - opportunity?) BoL

Hi Bamps After XDivDt (14/06/18) psn will fall by the Divi amount 110, but since PreInt results out shortly after (04/07/18 I think) the recovery time will be short as it has been historically, so for this reason I intend to hold on to psn until I see a negative trend emerge. Incidentally, my system says I should have sold on 18/05/18 (2798) and buy back 22/06/18. When I override my system it has usually been correct, but holding for Divi now and about 7% up (average float) so can hardly go wrong. BoL

Hi TommyR Thanks for prompt reply. So what you are talking about is prospective yield, and yes I am talking about historic yield, the yield I get for this year after XDivDt. I agree the figures after that policy announcement look compelling, and the result will no doubt be a gradual increase in Sp over the next few months (years?) Don't agree previous years yield is meaningless cos they form a positive trend, which is encouraging. This is exactly what psn did about 5 years ago. Company Refs states Yield 2017 2.41, 2018 6.53, 2019 7.23 (last 2 estimates before 15th May announcement). BoL

Thanks Graham From Investopedia Yield = Divs ps / price ps (nothing to do with Mrkt Cap) = 2.3+2.44+10.4 = 15.14 pps / 201 * 100 = 7.53%, based on todays price. Your own Div Yield I suppose depends on the date you bought the shares. I know I bought psn shares at much less than Cur Price (increasing Yield), while my tw (float) average was 208, slightly decreasing yield. To create an average Yield I imagine you have to take Price per share on the day before XDiv Dates, slightly increasing Yield. BoL

Hi Troubles Message for Bash where he said too risky to buy at 20p. New phrase - he would rather live on the slopes of Vesuvius. Btw have you had a look at psn Yield 8.7% as opposed to tw 7.7%, and greater sp growth. BoL

If you bought 1000 @ 20 = �200 the total divi is 15.14 pps so 1st year you get back �151. Hold another year, another �150 = �300 in divis - 50% up on your investment of �200 (which you still hold). Not worth the risk?

Hi Tom Think you are right and nowhere near 208. As I said not selling for less than 210 and it took (an unusual) 7 weeks last year to recover - not a disaster. Don't think it will take that long this time cos of future dividend policy statement, which psn did about 6 years ago since when they have outperformed all other builders. Interesting reading other points of view. I have a simple target price, which means I get the divi for free. No significant news now until 01/08/18 IntRes (unlike psn who have PreInt 05/07/17 - both have Y/e 31/12/18). BoL

Hi Graham That is why builders are such great value, they can hardly go down anymore. Hope for bounce Wednesday & Thursday to 208 ! BoL