Member Info for Nige_W

Hi tophat
You might well be right that Mr Redfern's clarification resulted in Sp being higher than what it would have been.
As far as I know there are no rules relating to how a company sets Int and Fin Dividends, so no reason that they cannot split the special 50/50 between Int and Fin.
Don't like the idea of making quarterly Divis, cos my system is based on moving a float from one builder to another based on Rns's and XDiv Dates.
Incidentally in my example I said the Sp goes down to 100. There must be some sort of limit the Sp can go to based on divis or yield. ie if Sp 100 then special alone will be approaching 20%.
BoL

Hi terrace
Don't use Pbv in my system - seem to remember it relates to residual value if company goes bust. Absolutely no chance of that with their Cash. I ignore bvs and crst cos LSE.
I don't have proper numbers in front of me, but from memory highest Per psn followed by tw then bdev, bwy and rdw. Could be wrong but I think this follows net cash position. I thought Pbv would create the same order.
You could look at it from the other point of view, that if bdev, bwy and rdw saved as much as psn and tw, their prices would be higher.
My reason for optimism is that I believe all builders are massively undervalued (as proved by Per's), a disaster is already built into the Sp (which can't happen until supply catches up with demand) and Per's will eventually return to PreBrexit levels (as my last post illustrated).
Hope we don't have to wait 5 years for Per's to recover, but with Brexit dragging out and possibly another election, it would not surprise me.
BoL

Hi Terrace
Say you bought 1000 at 200 so Cost is 2000.
After 1 year Sp goes down to 100 but you are paid 10% Divi = 200.
After 2 years Sp still 100 and you are paid another 200
After 3 years Sp still 100 and you are paid another 200
After 4 years Sp up to 200 and you are paid another 200 - Brexit almost sorted
After 5 years Sell Sp 300 and you are paid another 200 - Brexit sorted and return to normal Per
You have got 1000 in divis and 3000 for shares = 4000, Cost 2000 = 100%
Cost price doesn't matter until you sell.
BoL

This thread is losing objectivity. Does it matter how the massive future Divis will be distributed? The essential thing is they will be massive (while Eps will grow) so win, win situation.
The only downside is if Govt totally messes up Berit (quite probable - leading to a new election), this will lengthen the period of FatCats uncertainty, but already built into the Sp.
After the last RNS (5Year Plan), tw will not undermine this with poor Prelims without looking like fools. So in short term at least, no worries. Just hold for 11%+ Divis and 5%+ growth (=16% - will do for me!)
Bit disappointing cos my system hardly matters now, but at least I can get it well sorted before things return to normal.
Don't look for Sp growth right now but remember Yield = your own av price / current Sp and if Sp goes lower the Yeld increases. Just Hold or Buy (if you can) and sooner or later builders will return to old Per's increasing Sp by 50%, on top of Divis.
Critically, it doesn't matter if Sp goes down anymore, just increases Yield.
NigRule 1 - if in doubt do Nowt.
BoL

Hi divic
As Helena said if tw make a significant share buy back, she will just sell and buy into competitors, and this will also decrease the War Chest before next anticipated recession. tw almost went bust during banking crisis due to large debt (they still had to pay interest on debt even though they were not selling houses, cos banks were not lending the money). psn and bwy did not have this issue cos they had no debt (and quite a lot of cash - they just locked up, closed the shutters and waited for the next recovery), so there is no way tw will let this happen again (nor bdev and rdw).
This means we are stuck with Specials, but I see no reason why they cannot increase Int and Fin divis by diverting some money from Specials to them.
Helena also said there was no point in making a share buyback unless tw regarded their sp significantly less than their competitors, but basically they all follow each other so this won't happen. LSE Coys (bkgh, bvs, crst and csp) having bad time now, but Nationals fine (psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw).
psn PreInts suggested everything up about 5% and when IntRes published by psn and tw I expect them to show 5%+ up which, Imho justifies a 5% increase in Sp (in about 1 months time).
All depends on London Fatcats and how scared they are of Brexit, Trade War and Interest Rates. They are very frightened right now cos going into -ve equity on their massive mortgages - Ha ha ha!
How long is the cycle? When will supply catch up with demand? (10 years or more?) Can you really regard Builders as cyclical, if the cycle is 20 years +? As far as I am concerned it is a growth industry. Of course there will be hiccoughs along the way, but that is an opportunity.
Apologies for sounding too optimistic again, but the numbers speak for themselves.
BoL

Hi Helena
Great to hear from you again. How is Ice? He posted a message a week or two ago, but heard nothing since.
I didn't reply to the buyback thread - don't really understand how it will affect anything. Buy back half shares and share price doubles but no money left for divis nor reserves to see them thru upcoming recession (if it ever materialises).
Think this is make or break time for TM. Either she will force thru her point of view, which could lead to a General Election or wander aimlessly onwards, which could lead to a General Election.
Does it make any difference to shortage of housing? I don't think so, nor do tw as inferred by their last RNS.
All Float stuck in builders right now and hopefully some relief when tw and psn publish Interims.
Still think Sp can't go any lower (Buy opportunity?), but been saying that for ages as price drifted down.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I have gfrd on my watchlist and read somewhere they are trying to increase their house building cos far more profitable than construction. I have no doubt the French and Dutch companies will be well aware of that as well and could target our builders for a takeover. At least they will have to pay a reasonable price.
BoL

Hi Bamps
You are too kind, but thanks. Made a lot during the dotcom boom, then lost a lot during the dotcom bust.
The depressing thing is every one of the tech companies I made money with, were bought out by foreign competition (last one arm), as they became cheap.
The same would apply to builders now but they are domestic stocks as opposed to global. Even so there were rumours some time ago that a Chinese company was thinking of buying bdev, so not entirely safe.
Have a look at nano sp graph. People here seem happy to invest in potential but are very quick to bail out when it doesn't turn into cash. Nano very similar to arm in that most income will be from Ip, At worst they will also be bought by foreigners (but at much higher price than now) so (almost) as safe as houses.
Also there is the US company!?
Great board on nano here, but don't understand much - written in Polish or something.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I retired 20 years ago (unemployable at 45) so don't need too much excitement now. Been living off pensions since then, Divis a bonus, but could live off Divis alone quite easily now.
From my previous posts you will see I think builders are massively undervalued, and I think the Art of investing is realising when a company is undervalued (so you buy cheap) and selling when they reach their real value (sell high). A lot easier to say than to achieve though.
The simple idea is value is directly related to Per (lower Per - better value). Generally, companies with low Per's have something wrong with them, such as lots of debt, low margins, little growth... The critical thing is none of these apply to builders, yet they have the lowest Per's, and since Nov last year getting lower.
So, don't know when they will recover. Something to do with Brexit (but what does that matter to builders - will demand suddenly become less than supply?) Not even bovvered cos of Divis I'm getting.
The time now is to be patient and do nothing at all, (unless you have more funds which I suggest you use to buy into builders - Psn everything about 5% up over last year).
Have you looked at nano? Tech stock with a proven product. Imho only a matter of time before they take off.
BoL

Hi Tom
I only invest in Builders and Tech Stocks (just 1 now nano). Gold, Oil... too risky for me.
Builders as safe as houses (psn £1.3Bn cash). Down to just 6 company's (but 6 great ones!)
I am fine - hope you are as well.
BoL

Hi Tom
As you know I am not a Chartist, and said for a long time I cannot believe the price can go any lower. Hope you are right and we are at the bottom now.
Unfortunately I can't use my system now as all float stuck in psn, tw and rdw until prices recover a bit.
Incidentally, the last few days I have noticed after hour trades (after UT) have been massive and just about all buys (for tw, psn and bdev). Don't know where these come from nor there significance (if any)?
BoL

Hi WiganW
Of course you are right that the market determines the share price and sentiment is seriously low at the moment, as indicated by historic low Per.
Imho you can value a company by a combination of various factors eps, margin, cash, divis, per, peg … How you do this is up to you, but however you do it you will find builders are fantastic value ie worth considerably more than Mrkt Cap. Builders are most undervalued sector by a long way, and becoming even better value as their prices fall.
Yield is tot divis per year / (your own average) price per share. Despite buying a lot of psn shares recently my average price is 2216 (currently 2453) so Divis for free, and around 10% up in value.
Don't know when Sp will return to a reasonable level (generally 50% more than current value for builders) but it will happen eventually, and quite happy picking up Divis in the mean time.
BoL

Hi cm45
As far as tw concerned bvs report doesn't matter, but psn report will affect tw price. There has been almost no sign of falling sales, earnings or margins because tw and psn still selling everything they can build. So I expect the numbers to be solid.
More worried about how psn describe the outlook - any negatives there could drive prices lower, but IMHO already built into the price. We will see tomorrow.
BoL

Hi terrace
Crst, bkgh and bvs are all LSE. The only one that matters (as far as tw concerned) is psn.
Good point about London effect spreading elsewhere, but still see no chance of supply catching up with demand, so not too worried.
BoL

Hi DiciC and Graham
No idea what Sp will be in a years time. It all depends on how well (badly) Brexit goes. If no deal tw will have trouble reaching their targets and sp could sink, but since yield over 11% and loads of cash, can't see them sinking much. If good deal maybe Per's return to pre-Brexit levels, inferring around 50% increase.
So best guess somewhere between 170 and 300 (not much of a guess!)
Think no deal already built into the price, so I remain optimistic, and happy to hold and pick up Divis.
BoL

Hi DiviC
I have said tw cannot go much lower (but keep on being proved wrong!) Most people move cos they are forced into moving (new job or whatever), so recession will not effect builders much. Also, until supply catches up with demand, I expect builders to maintain Margins, increase Eps and Divis, so quite happy to just hold. When will supply catch up with demand?
BoL

Hi DiviC
According to my system We 28/07/17 Sp 187, We 04/08/17 Sp 188. Could have been 195 on 01/08/17, these things are easily checked, but not really bovvered. Projected numbers (before last RNS) Ye 2017, 2018.
Pretax 682, 856 - if you like calc %ages.
Eps 16.9, 21.4
EpsG -5.53, 26.6
Cash £512m, >512m
Per 11.3, 8.91
This company is not flat - it is growing fast. Just a hiccough with leaseholds (which make this years numbers look a bit better) and a more efficient management of land purchases (ie decreasing time between purchase and sale).
I have been accused of hyping this company, and I admit I have not said much against them, but best bargains psn (cos solid as a rock) bwy and rdw before tw an bdev. So
Hi calisto
To me there are National builders and LSE builders like bkgh (which I am now out of now), bvs, crst and csp, have issues (at least temporarily). Nationals don't have a problem. I am sure psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw will be fine for the next 10 years. Price movement of 1 in group will affect the rest in the group.
BoL

Hi Gubba
Buys always equals Sells, so not worth watching. What is interesting is apparently no trades between 16:07 and 17:00 which implies a big chunk of data lost. Usually there is a UT (Uncrossing) trade around 16:30, but that's missing as well. Sometimes I look at late trades after UT (normally Type O) which can influence next day opening price. This site is in collapse.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Bvs is a LSE company and been going thru a bad time for a while. New Ceo but a bit early to expect an improvement yet, so not concerned if their statement is poor. Much more important is psn statement - that will effect tw Sp, but can't see how tw can go any lower (11% yield, cash …)
Don't think we are close to top of cycle as long as supply less than demand. Tw doesn't think so either as implied by their last RNS. Anyway, Per means a disaster is already built into the price.
BoL

Hi cm45
Projected Turnover, PreTax, Eps, Margin, Dividend and Cash in hand all at Record Highs. Per (sentiment) at Record Low.
With a Yield of over 11% I expect people to just buy the Divis.
So yes, I am puzzled.
BoL