Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Owls
Not checked your numbers but sounds about right. All you can say is bdev results not great, but better than expected, driving Sp up. The really interesting bit is the improvement in last 6 months, which I expect to be reflected in tw and psn Interims.
From last tw Rns I think Interims should be very good and DiviC will see much more than a 2p rise - how can you expect a rise when no news?
We are in "The Dog Days of Summer", but I am hoping the big 3 all reporting in a small amount of time, could form a turning point in Builders Sp movement.
FI's so scared of Brexit... (without reason) and the coys decreasing least in value are the ones with the most net cash - ie psn, tw and bdev, so terrace that is why, Pbv, Nav show the big 3 as being more expensive than the others.
Don't recommend a top up until we see Interims, followed (hopefully) by an upturn which could last a few months.
Incidentally, do you think tw would release last RNS if they thought there was any chance that they could not deliver in their first results of a 5 year plan.
BoL

Ps
24 Departments in 4 Groups + tw Spain. 1 dept = 4% total

Hi WiganW
Traditional Per for builders was about 13 - now 8,7 assuming no increase in Eps. So when things return to normal Sp should become 177 * 13 / 8.7 = 264. Don't know when Brexit, Trade war... will be sorted but that is the value of the company. Massive overreaction by the market.
Personally, I don't think Brexit, Trade War... affect supply/demand for housing very much, and builders will continue to prosper (increasing Eps) until supply catches up with demand.
I have never said tw worth 300+ and all my predictions are based on a return to normality.
Don't know anything about 1 Dept (Central London) of 1 Group and suspect it is a very small %age of tw turnover,
BoL

Hi WiganW
I see no reason for sales to be flat, not until supply catches up with demand (10+ years?) and the difference is probably increasing, (or to put it another way, the top of the cycle is becoming further away!) Since builders are able to sell everything they can build, they can increase prices, resulting in increasing margins which again, for the big 3 have been steadily increasing for the last 10 years.
My system not working properly but from your numbers:
Date, Eps, Sp, Per
Jul-18, 20.2, 176, 8.7
Dec-17, 20.2, 206, 10.2
Dec-16, 18.1, 154, 8.5
Dec-15, 15.1, 197, 13.0
Dec-14, 11.6, 135, 11.6
Dec-13, 8.5, 110, 12.9
Dec-12, 7.3, 74, 10.1
Eps for Interims will be published end of month, assumed no increase (unlike every other year),
If Eps increases, Per becomes even less.
Say average Per is 13 and Per becomes 6.5p, this means tw worth 2* current price.
Not going to happen - round numbers to illustrate my point.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Agree that if Eps deceases Sp deceases and per remains the same.
I don't have numbers going back 10 years but I doubt Eps have decreased once in the last 10 years for any of the big 3 builders, (except tw provision for lease hold).
Nothing to indicate decrease in Eps, in fact bdev results showed an unexpected rise in Eps in last 6 months, which could also apply to tw and psn, so I remain optimistic.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Don't think Builders Pers can go any lower, so Sp can't go any lower (disaster already built into Sp), but agree rest of market could be affected.
Bdev rise due to being better than expected (but by no means great). I expect tw (& psn) Interims at end of month, to be better (in terms of growth), but what the market makes of them is anyone's guess.
Imho eps growth > 5% excellent and tw on target for last RNS.
Psn, tw and bdev Sp now driven by Divis cos confidence in them is nil - despite cash!
If no Brexit (or sorted favourably) builders would be 50 to 100% higher than they are now simply based on Per's.
BoL

Hi Helena
Very happy to recommend HSBC - don't even know if I pay a qtrly charge cos I'm completely confident they will do their best for me. Just setup a bank account with them, then a Trading account (with Invest Direct +), then Isa account, then transfer Isa.
Sounds like a lot of work, but help systems so good it doesn't take long. You can invest in EU and US (maybe even Far East?) and have a very low interest rate for borrowing up to 50% value of Port.
Don't do/use any of them, but tempted to borrow a little if any sign of recovery in builders. Last week could be the turning point, but my system says 27/07/18.
BoL

Hi Humdrum
Fwiw My system is telling me to sell Float in bwy (which I don't have) and top up Floats in rdw, psn and tw before 27/07/18, where my Float has been stuck since December, cos I won't sell Float at a loss.
BoL

Hi Helena
I moved from Barclays to HSBC a few years ago with no trouble - inferring Barclays getting worse!
I think all you need to do is tell HSBC the accounts to transfer and they handle it all, sure I saw a transfer form on HSBC. I was with Schwab before Barclays and everything transferred automatically (after 911).
BoL

Hi Humdrum
Your research is spot on - no reason for doom and gloom and Per means they are a bargain,
I agree with everything johnson says again.
This is a good time to buy cos no sign of weakness in builders (margins Eps, Sales, cash...), yet prices have been decreasing since late last year. Least decrease psn (about 9%), most tw (about 14%) and bdev about 12% of the big 3.
Noticeable that psn has the most net cash and biggest margin, followed by tw then bdev, which makes me think the market is expecting a disaster (already built into the Sp), but the numbers simply don't support that, and no disaster possible until supply catches up with demand (10 years?)
Generally the big 3 Sp follow each other, psn and tw about to report interims soon (which I expect to be good boosting Sp), while bdev just reported PreFin results which were better than expected and they increased by about 7% last week (missed boat?), but also boosted psn and tw by about 2%.
Not going to say which is the best bet - only the God of time knows that, but I hold all 3 and also bwy and rdw. Maybe go for a third in all three.
I suggest you have a look at tw board (best for messages) and their last Trading update - almost nothing on psn board.
BoL

Hi Tom
Sure I saw it at 45 earlier - as you say 43.3 now, but some big buyers around.
Gold/Oil exploration too risky for me.
Have a Great weekend and keep out of the thunderstorms.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Just read the last few trading reports - last (PreFin) says 2nd half results better than expected, previous in line with expectations.
Last by no means great but price movement due to better than expected.
Held psn since 25/11/14 @ 1515, average 2216 now 2479, so very happy but still well down on float.
Hi Tom
Interest in nano could start it moving - one buy of 500,000 just pushed price up to 45, now about 8% up.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Completely agree, HSBC is a great bank, don't often see people recommending a bank.
On bdev/tw issue, bdev has a lower per than tw (more undervalued), but tw has bigger margins and net cash justifying higher Per. Don't think there is much in it (by numbers).
In terms of sentiment - why did bdev Per get so low? Previous bad news?
Think the best strategy is your idea of buying bdev and selling before XDivDt. 7.25% up this week (tw 1.73%). Feel like I've missed the boat, but never intended to do any trades until I break even on Floats and holding tw divi as cash.
Hi Tom
Good luck in getting into bdev but a trend like we see this week means Sp probably won't go much lower than it is now. Also, have a look at psn, solid as a rock and lost less money on them than other builders since XMas depression.
BoL

Ps
I realise you are talking about bdev sp gain before XDivDt and selling, rather than taking Divi, but same argument applies.

"European Parliament threatens to veto Theresa May’s new Brexit plan over Irish border" - MSN News.
Now that's a surprise! What a mess and how long to sort out without a new system, let alone election. Funny thing is TM more aligned with Labour than her own party. No idea where this will go.
As I have said before, don't see how this effects supply/demand for housing in UK, so it shouldn't affect builders Sp, but it will.
Hi Johnson & Bamps
Tw and psn Interims will be published soon which might boost the price more than bdev divi, but a good idea which could work. Personally, I won't sell anything until I get my float price back, and right now prefer to hold divis as cash, rather than re-investing it. When in doubt …
BoL

Hi Bamps
Don't know anything about the company you mention. Big builders don't have the resources to expand into new markets, and very happy to build big houses when their margin are so high, so I suggest they don't want to move in there.
Noticed bdev still claim to be biggest builder. psn and tw far bigger by MrktCap and would be surprised if they don't also build more houses.
bdev margin and net cash well behind psn and tw which could explain their lower Per (along with bwy and rdw).
BoL

Every now and then somebody buys £9,950 shares in nano, 3 times yesterday. Strange?
In terms of intellectual property I remember arm paid a considerable amount for the Ip of a company simply to avoid copyright issues. Probably more than nano Mrkt Cap. I imagine nano Ip far greater than the company arm bought (by a factor of 5, 10 ??) Just looks too good to be true - what is wrong? Dow, Merck and WingChung could all be wrong I suppose.
My system tells me to sell the house and put it all in nano - and its right more often than I am!

Never known anything like this. Loads of applications any one of which could probably sustain the company alone and a US Corp paying for research/development and a new production line!
Will at the least act as a Guarantor so Nano can't go bust. I wonder what their Ip is worth?
After averaging down now making a small profit, so very happy.
Daft guessing game - Price at XMas - I go for 100

Hi Tom
Good results from bdev, previously good results from bwy, psn and tw to follow which I expect will also be good - yet at these prices a disaster is already built into the prices, There is no sign of a disaster (like decreasing margins, eps, sales, net cash …) and when psn and tw publish their results. maybe there will be a change in this downward spiral.
Hoping the low point is end of this month.
On bdev board some encouraging brokers forecasts (which I take no notice of - so am not encouraged!)
But still believe tw worth 300 once Brexit, trade wars, interest rates and election sorted. Just a matter of time - don't know how long.
BoL

According to this site just dropped 50 Points around midnight, but probably wrong again.
Otherwise, if builders go down yet again, time to re-mortgage the house and All In!
ADVFN so slick, about time this site got itself sorted.