Member Info for Nige_W

Hi cm45 If demand remains higher than supply it is good for business. You can expect margins and EpS to increase. For builders this is almost becoming embarrassing they are so high. The drop of 1% in prices leading to a drop of 10% in profitability means nothing to me. Can you justify that, and why should the prices drop anyway? I am not saying tw is the best company in the Sector, but it is solid. Prefer psn, rdw and bwy myself. Only Sector to be in, look at Growth in Sp, Eps, Margins - can you find that in any other Sector to come anywhere near matching builders? Then look at Divis and Cash in the Bank - which means they are rock solid. Then look at PER, PEG and under any estimates they are massively undervalued. All that confuses me is how such a bargain could become possible in this day and age! BoL

Hi Troubles More blizzards today, snow lying on roads even in rush hour, and probably about 6 inches on average, but blown into drifts.This is very rare where I live (close to the coast), far worse inland. New calcs show Long Term Buy Hold for my 6 builders would have produced 23% profit last year (excl Divis), while NigSys produced 55% profit (excl Divis). NigSys works in retrospect but I expect NigSys will produce somewhere between 23 and 55%, hopefully about 40%. What do you think of my last post re psn - too good an opportunity to miss, or too good to be true? BoL

Hi Graham tw results in line with expectations, but I think everybody was hoping for something a little better than that! Just been comparing tw with psn re Divis and NigRule-17 (Sp becomes 20*Div just before XDivDt). Coy, Divi, Amnt, XDivDt, PayDt tw, Fin, 2.44, 05/04/18, 18/05/18 tw, Spec, 10.4, 1/05/18, 13/07/18 tw Tot, 12.84 * 20 = 257, Sp 186 = 38% inc, which is good but psn, Int, 125, 08/03/18, 29/03/18 psn, Fin, 110, 14/06/18, 02/07/18 psn Tot 235 * 20 = 4700, Sp 2601 = 81% inc Int Div alone is 4.81%, Fin 4.23% = 9.04% Yield Massive increase in psn due to increase in IntDiv from 25 to 125 pps. Now intend selling half float in tw and rdw to buy psn. Then too many eggs, Man or Mouse, NigRule-01 or sell 25% to buy. Will worry about it later. BoL

Hi Tom So the problem with Isa's now is it is difficult to protect a company doing well for you (ie sell to Isa and need to pay Cgt on trading account), inferring sell companys not doing very well (like Nano, my trade av 43 - but 32 in Isa, Sp now 39). As you say no tax anywhere evermore once in Isa - a New onshore Tax Haven? - but how much is Cgt now? I think that has been decreased significantly recently. Why not ban Isa's - treat everything the same and get rid of all meaningless Govt regulations. Power to the People! BoL

Hi Troubles Had to go out at half past six yesterday, and blowing a blizzard, roads covered in snow and another blizzard blowing right now, can't even see the road outside the house! Looking forward to the results later, then I can do my calcs for tw, psn, bdev and rdw to form new predictions and % age increases. I said earlier not doing anything until May, but if predictions say psn has far more growth potential than the others, maybe time to move some float from tw and rdw to psn. I am hoping for an increase in Divi (from 15.3 pps promised) and I think the late trades indicate this is expected now. If tw also increase Divi with are strong statement on the health of building, then I expect a re-alignment of Sp for all builders - maybe to just 50% undervalued, as opposed to 100%. Good job I got those extra candles cos the CHtg has its own agenda! BoL

A Sea of Blue - looking very good for tomorrow. Don't normally look at this but average buy looks like about 196.5. BoL

Hi Tom Basically I hold 6 builders and nano + a small amount in sge and a few agma ie builders 82% rest 18%. No itv, banks or anything else. If tw increase Divi, 200 easy tomorrow and on course to 260+ in May. Just need to be patient with nano. BoL

Hi Tom Small dip this afternoon, which could suit you, but makes no difference to me. Sp for tw, bdev and psn driven by Divi, which is ridiculous for growth companies (with loads of cash in the bank). In my mind the numbers justify the Sp being double current prices. No real intention of doing any trades now (barring disasters) until end of May. Maybe top up nano if a good increase. BoL

Hi Troubles Heavy snow last night maybe 4 inches, but it has been melting today in the sun, maybe 2 inches left. Noticeable that bdev and psn have increased Divi, if tw do the same tomorrow could see another big increase and builders will be flying. That would force me to make an even more ridiculous prediction for Sp end of May! BoL

Hi Graham Not too bovvered about Price on Wed, last year (24/02/17) Sp 177, 26/05/17 Sp 206 = 29 increase = 16%. If results in line with expectations I expect an increase of at least 16% before end of May (=232), and if divi is 15.3 pps I am still hoping for 260 by then. Post New Year Trough deeper and later than usual, means we are starting at a lower than expected base level. BoL

Hi Tom Don't bother looking up VCP - Flooring solutions! The problem is the Sector, Household Goods! Sp almost doubled in last year, but don't like the fundamentals. Think I will replace vcp with aht (Ashtead Group - plant Hire mainly US based). BoL

Hi Tom Hani I get the feeling that when no new news the Sp will recede, but will thrive on new news. I look at the nano board but they all talk Swahili. Get the feeling that news flow will increase and things are now happening very quickly. So remain +ve, but a very risky investment. Tom Just found a new builder you may like vcp (Victoria Properties), Sp gone ballistic over last 5 Years, but I don't know anything about them. Need to find out! Bol, and buying more candles for next week - colder here than the N Pole???

Just a little note, Held bwy since Dec-13 Av price 1456, Cur price 3106 = 113% profit - my best performing share. Not including Divis, nor Profit on Deals done. Completely agree Bernie, steady away will do for me. Safe and solid, unlike nano which I also invest in! BoL

Hi Tom Something Troubles said some time ago, we can expect a surge in nano when the mystery US Corp becomes known, but when that will happen is anyone's guess. Must be difficult to keep the secret, and why? US Corp looking to get a head start in a new application? BoL

Hi KD37 Expected a rise today and tomorrow, wrong again! Need to hold until mid May, and if I had any spare cash I would be topping up now. Not to worry - no float in bdev and av price 355. Don't know what caused the slump today, but makes no difference to the value of the company, which is now even more undervalued. Hope for a significant improvement next week after psn and tw FinRes. BoL

Hi Troubles Just Calcd bdev should be 100 more than close price on Friday = 17% by 18/05/18. Quite a return for 3 months! All in so no spare cash to invest. My knowledge derived from numbers! BoL

Hi KD37 What I should have said was by 18/05/18 Sp should be 100 more than closing price of Friday which I imagine will be more than 560 so 580 Friday, then 680 18/05/18, 600 Friday, then 700 18/05/18. BoL

Hi KD37 Last Year Sp went from 520 (17/02/17) to 610 (19/05/17), so just be patient. Heading for 660 (18/05/18). I expect these results are even better than last year so maybe 660+. BoL

Hi David Don't think US Bonds or Lloyds have anything at all to do with builders - might stimulate the rest of the market though. Over the next couple of weeks Builders Sp will be driven by results. I like your predictions, but I hope bdev up at least 20 (maybe 25 ie almost 5%) and given price drag effect, tw should be 195+. We shall see. Hi Troubles I agree, according to my calcs should have reached trough 3 weeks ago, and now the sky's the limit, but is that 230 or 260? Once FinRes published, the Sp will follow an inevitable path towards a Peak Pre XDivDt. Still haven't decided what to do, hold for Divi or sell all float, or something in between. I used to be indecisive but not sure now! NigRule-1 - see tw FinRes (and psn) then decide. Hi Earnacrust However long you have held tw, after XDivDt the Sp will plummet, so you can always sell before - price goes down - buy back after at lower price, and you have more shares - just lost the Spec Divi, but it could be that the Sp Plummet > Divi. The Company is growing, so only a matter of time before it returns to Pre XDivDt Peak. Personally I don't want to have money stuck in any Company waiting for a recovery, even if inevitable (how long?) 100% Invested right now until End of May and barring Cliffs, Potholes, Icebergs, Mines, IED's and Madmen ... we are marching North now. I look forward to tomorrow and bdev IntRes. BoL

Hi Tom Just caught a cold and I suspect that made me sleepy, so early night. So you are into Tech analysis as well! One day I will read up about it, but far too busy right now. Onward and upward until end of May. BoL