Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Judge Couldn't resist it! Topped up from a company I was losing money on (tcm) in the hope of a takeover. Also topped up psn. Now watch tcm get taken over for twice the price. Builders now 82% of port. Still maxed out but current plan is to create a held float £10k on 24/10/17 (2 days before XDivDt) for possible reinvest in bdev if big drop. Market makers don't exist any more (at least for big companies). Replaced by sets, if you look at the trades 'a' in the right hand column denotes automatic trade by sets. BoL

Hi Sunset You don't make a profit until you sell, but I'm with you here - still got a long way to go, so why not buy? I am maxed out as usual so no resources to buy. Interesting to note the differences in builders increase today: bkgh 0.8%, bdev 3.9%, rdw 3.2%, bwy 2.1%, crst 2.7%, psn 3.8%, tw 1.5%. bwy and tw look like good buys for a day trader. BoL

Hi Hawkey I hold a base value in 7 builders bkgh, bdev, rdw, bwy, crst, psn and tw and move a float between them as Rns dates come up (if I think the Rns is going to be good for Sp). On the verge of selling out crst but looking for a company (or two) to replace it with. BoL

Hi Noggers I apologise, like tw I expect a big drop after XDivDt but not to 550. What do you think max before XDivDt? BoL

Hi All Very happy with rise to 614.5, now means I am in profit on Float 611 av. So, how far will this go before XDivDt , 650, 660, 688 or 746? Noggers reckons 550 - he could be right, my vote 675. Not too sure about bounce back - it will happen but how long will it take? So I will take out �10k for bwy about 2 weeks before XDivDt (no doubt missing a big increase), but hopefully bwy will also do well. Only way the Sp is going for now is North. BoL

Hi Noggers Most builders have Eps growth of 20%+ pa so now 600 which means in 1 years time 720 unless a spanner in the works. I do expect to see 650+ by XDivDt cos cash return very attractive. The good thing is find out soon, but by buying into bwy, I am hedging my bets so will have a guaranteed profit, with more profit from bwy and the possibility of reinvesting in bdev after XDivDt drop. That really is money for nothing. Got an issue with rdw (�8k float). I don't think S Morgan (the Boss), who says he's taking a back seat in his company will have the same affect as last time when he pulled out and Sp slumped, hopefully he will replace himself with a very capable new Ceo, and he still is really in control. I will hold for now. I cannot believe how -ve you are, that is not a criticism, but you don't really seem to justify your point of view. BoL

Hi Debacle That's my plan as well - Sell �10k float in bdev (leaving �8k float) and invest it in bwy (PreFin 17/10/17) but bdev XDivDt 26/10/17. This means we need to sell bdev around Fri 13/10/17 which is almost 2 weeks before bdev XDivDt. During those 2 weeks bdev might increase significantly. Hopefully big increase in bwy after FinRes. I think these dates are right - please correct me if not. BoL

Hi Sunset Fat Cats moving in to buy the divi, happened with tw and psn - so why not bdev? No idea how far sp will go - I think 650 minimum before XDivDt (possibly 688 on divi 5% Sp, or 746 if divi 4.6% Sp - like tw and psn). Or you can sell just before XDivDt guaranteeing profit, and if a huge drop in Sp just buy back later. I can see why you think long term buy hold is a good place to be (cos of growth let alone divis), but my idea is to move a float between builders as Rns's come up - next bwy (FinRes declaring divi ...) If you sit on cash you make nothing, unless there is a disaster in which case it might be burnt anyway! My only disaster recently is rdw, float av 610, cur price 571, cos the boss sold �157M in the coy, but overall av 487 (including float) so not really complaining. I am hoping this will bounce back but hate -ve numbers, which force you to a choice of writing off or holding. Holding �12k float their at the moment which I will sell at 610 or maybe a bit less if not improving much. BoL

I said previously Buys always equals Sells - you cannot buy something which is not for sale. All total Buys means is the shares that were bought at the buy price, while Total Sells are total sells made at the sell price. Since Sets has replaced market makers its all an automatic system, denoted by A in the right hand column of Trades. BoL

Hi Judge Best of luck with your new system but if you find any companies with better Per/Peg than house builders I would love to know which they are. For value, growth, safety ... nothing compares with builders, so a rather embarrassing 78% of my port. Buys always equal Sells, all the total number of buys means is the number of shares bought at the buy price. Not worth watching these numbers. BoL

I don't use stop losses either. I buy for a reason and fluctuations in share price don't change that reason. At the moment Sp very low considering the Divi and Eps growing at over 20% pa, so Sp should increase by about the same amount every year. Good Divi, good growth, loads of cash in bank, lowest Per, Peg (ie disaster built into the price), what's not to like! BoL

Hi Ftsemajor If you read my posts from a few days ago you will see I predict Sp 688 based of divi (of 34.4) representing 5% Sp. But note Tw 01/06/17, Divi 9.2 pps, Sp Friday before 200 ie Divi 4.60% of Sp & Psn 15/06/17, Divi 110 pps, Sp Friday before 2379 ie Divi 4.62% of Sp so if bdev = 4.61% yield then Bdev Sp Friday before = 34.4 / 4.61 * 100 = 746. Don't know what it will be but I hope you are right at 650+ BoL

Hi HeresHopin Thank you so much for your advice. I use Invest Direct (not ID+). Yes you are correct, they automatically charge the main account with what I have bought and credit it with everything I have sold, because I have no cash ID account. I really should have sorted this, but wife in hospital (so doing all the housework myself) and just haven't had time. Now becoming more important cos I want to set up an Isa, (can I do that for myself and wife ie £40k as opposed to myself £20k?), and would you recommend ID+? Got a new toy a Blueberry or something, my little daughters old phone and trying to figure out how it works, so have had no time to do anything with my system at all today. Never needed one before, but she insists! Bol and Bol to BB which I meant to add but sent by mistake.

Hi HeresHopin It is true that a good set of results from 1 builder pushes up the other builders, but the others don't increase by as much as the one which pushed them. It appears that my system is all about chasing divis, but that is only the latest development of my system, which is basically to move the float between builders depending on upcoming Rns's and how the Sp performed after the Rns ie looking for growth. The last few Rns's have been FinRes which means I have been focusing on XDivDt's. Also, as you suggested there are differences in the recovery of Sp after XDivDt - psn and bwy recover far more quickly than bdev and tw. I believe that is because psn and bwy are regarded as rock solid (never came close to going bust after banking crisis) while bdev, tw and rdw almost did. I think that is because psn and bwy have far more long term holders (as opposed to day traders) and these guys just say thanks very much for the divi and then wait for the next one. Last point, a disaster is already built into builders Sp due to such low Per's a Peg's, which I don't think is going to happen. Do a sort of tick box test to compare with any other company. Rating 0 to 5 - terrible to excellent. EpsG Margin Cash For the above the higher the better, for the below the lower the better Per Peg The challenge is to find any company in any other sector that you rate better than any builder. 'Only place to be' as StrictlyBricks said, hence his name. BoL

Hi BB According to my unreliable Diary bdev XDivDt 26/10/17 and bwy FinRes 10/10/17, when they will declare Divi (last Year 74 pps just 2.5% @ 3000) . Extension to Cur Plan sell £10k bdev before bwy FinRes and buy bwy, leaving £8k in bdev for divi. Downside, still got £12k float in rdw av 577, cur price 558 - I will just hold them and hope for a recovery. Not much more happening with builders RNS's until next year. Been with psn since 25/11/14 av 1530 cur price 2484 so very happy with that.

Hi Judge I don't disagree with anything you said, but everything is getting too complicated - like building it into the tax system. The fundamental reason is Govt policy is to to buy votes by adjusting tax benefits ... not what is best for the country. The moment the Govt becomes involved, the admin increases massively so simple processes become far too difficult. Look at the major departments Social Services, NHS, Education and the Armed Forces. More people are employed by the MoD than the RAF and Navy - they will soon outnumber the Army. When Tony Blair first got int power I almost voted for him because he said he was going to get rid of all the Quangos - there were more when he left than when he started. I would love to know how many Beds in NHS, how many Nurses and Doctors and how many people employed by the NHS. I have resisted this because I might slit my own throat! BoL

Hi HeresHopin Thanks for the reply. The first point is that if divi > 5% of Sp why not just buy the divi, as I did with tw and psn. I have 2,960 shares (Float) in bdev * 34.4 pps = £1,018 which cost me £18,082 = 5.63%. I am quite happy with that rate of return over a month or two, and many more people will think the same way. As long as divi is > 5% it is worth just buying the divi which should push the price up. The second point Brexit has caused a massive decline in Per and Peg values decreasing builders Sp by about 40%. We have not left Europe, but more importantly Brexit will have little affect on Builders. British builders building houses for British people with British labour (mainly) using very little imported materials, while demand for housing will remain far greater than supply for the foreseeable future. With the exception of Utilities I can't think of a sector that will be less affected, yet the vote has devalued builders more than any other sector. Special divis will continue as long as builders growth remains high and no signs of that changing at the moment. My current plan is to sell the Float 1 week before XDivDt and if a big drop after XDivDt maybe buy back again. I am not offended at all by your post, this is what these boards are for. And, I wish you all the best with your investments.

Hi Pimpin, Judge As far as I know the CSA still exists, (maybe under a different name), which determines how much the Father of the child should pay to the Mother. Great idea (nothing to do with courts or lawyers), but the payments demanded are rarely paid to the Mother. The greatest cost is the Admin, then bringing the default Fathers to court (imprisoning them at even gtr cost), then Mothers and the child gets anything at all! Makes you wonder at the choice of name? It needs a total rethink - our Society does in general. I was lucky enough to buy a house when the interest rates were high, so £12k mortgage when 20 odd % inflation mean't that I paid the house off years ago. My little daughter is pregnant and wants to buy a house with her partner, so she is settled before her kid is born, but with interest rates at 0.25% what chance does she ever have of owning her own home? Why not just print money and give it to everyone (not the banks!) - it will all be spent keeping up demand and if everybody can afford a roof over their heads (and their family), most issues solved! Come the revolution! BoL ps Nobody told me yet how stupid my idea of 746 (or 688) is for bdev yet in 5 weeks - still looking for 660!

Hi Jmo My reasoning could be wrong, but I don't think so. If a spanner in the works then who can say? 590 to 746 is quite a rise, which could be possible (doubt it will be that much, sentiment is evaporating again). My point is, if you buy the Divi the week before XDivDt you can make 5% +, cash quite quickly and the FatCats do that - in fact they go for 4.6%! Leads me to a new idea - just chase Divis - I have to think of how to do that. You can only do it with Builders! Anyway, my idea is bdev going North, I have no doubt you have invested your money elsewhere, but just do a share comparison over last 5 years of the performance of your new shares to bdev. So, Imho Explosive movement upwards, and also for rdw, barring spanners. BoL

Just a quick note, I bought psn and tw well before XDivDt so was able to sell psn almost immediately (at my buy price), had to wait about 4 weeks to get tw buy price.