Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Hereshopin
Still don't understand. Decrease the number of shares so Eps increase and so Sp, but the assets have decreased by the same amount, decreasing Sp by same amount. Divis, Yield and Margins have been increasing for years for builders and until supply catches up with demand I see no reason for this to change. Why change a system if its not broke?
Builders can maintain high Divis cos of cash (via margins) and to quite a large extent Sp will reflect that. Not a matter of one or the other failing. If fundamentals are good (ie value), Sp will improve.
Only issue is you are taxed on Divis but when you sell shares at a profit, you are taxed on that as well.
Best to migrate shares of high Sp growth to Ias's and hold High Yield companies in trading account - unless you can set up an account in one of UK's (hundreds?) of tax havens!
The Govt created all of this Mess, and crushed building Industry 10 years ago. Builders older and wiser now!
BoL

Think this means either tw going bust, or numbers not worth looking at!
Hi Troubles
Thanks for the article. Don't look like a turning point, new trend, revaluation or nowt.
Fwiw I think tw worth > 500 even if Buffet never mentioned UK markets, builders … but think he would agree with my ideas based on value.
I have never understood the idea of share buy backs - pushes Sp up cos less in circulation, but decreases assets by the same amount - so no change? But not an Accountant.
Long way from Euphoria with current Sp, so maybe only one direction now. With Obama in control you could make a pretty good guess at US policy, now with Trump, no idea at all. Brexit having the same affect.
Probably all is Bull, but I do think value will eventually be realised (how long?)
Bol and keep warm and out of the rain. Flooded again?

Away, its Friday y'know.

Hi Troubles, Bamps
Couldn't find the article you refer to, so please could you correct any of my incorrect assumptions.
Used to be the case that whenever markets hit uncertainty, investors would move to Utility companies (demand almost constant, high Divis, can't go bust despite debt).
Is Buffet saying Builders the new Utes? (Demand far greater than supply, high Divis, can't go bust cos of cash). Makes a lot of sense to me.
If this is the case then justifiable Per > 14.0 (say 24.0) as opposed to current Per about 8.0.
This infers tw sp should be 3 * curr price or > 500 - that would me nice!
BoL

Hi Tom
This week last year was one of the 4 weeks per that my system tells me to get float down to nil - ie low point before Santa Surge, which is followed by a rise until end of May. Just hope so - trouble is Sp movement now based on Brexit news, so anything could happen.
BoL

Hi Troubles
You are right, predicting prices not my strong point at the moment.
Builders drifted far too far south due to No Deal Brexit fears. So future trends / prices cannot be predicted from boring things like accounts any more (looking for a crystal ball!).
Buying bdev before XDivDt and expecting a surge as date neared didn't work either, so just picked up 6.83% divi instead (on top of about 1.7% Int = 8.5%). Even bwy (XDivDt 29/11/18) producing 3.57% + 1.8% = 5.37% for me.
Cash nice but need to hold now until Sp > Float price, so much reduced (available) float at the moment.
BoL

Hi Tom
Bit of profit taking today I think - al builders down (and nano),
Hoping for an improvement tomorrow - I think a turning point could has been reached and (barring Brexit disaster) Sp's going up til end of May.
Time for daft bet, tw Sp 31/05/19 - No calcs done but I guess 230.
BoL

Hi Owls
Don't know anything about Acacia, (only invest in Builders and nano)..
Suggest you compare critical numbers between Acacia and bdev (or any other of the big 5) ie
Eps, Eps Growth, Margin, Divis and Cash.
Trouble with looking at momentum is you are watching for a trend, as opposed to identifying value.
Acacia might hit gold (or oil - whatever) and prospects are indeed important. But builders are just steady away and accounts so much better than any other sector.
I mean no criticism of your system and wish you the very best of luck.

Hi Dot
Means nothing cos Buys = Sells. If Buyer gets his Buy price goes thru as a Buy, if Seller gets his Sell price goes thru as Sell. Makes no difference to total shares issued.
BoL

Hi Tom
Great week for me, best ever!
Maybe some profit taking early next week but hoping the trend has changed and we will see continued increase.
Might adopt the Ice ladder method, but will wait for a stabilisation first - still think Sp's going up for now.
You have not missed the boat with nano - it has a long voyage ahead.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Calc for 300 for tw based on Per's 168 * 14.0 / 8.1 = 292 (Cur Sp * Old Per / Cur Per).
Assumes Per will return to Pre Brexit level - could take years!
As I said on bdev board I think Brexit will have almost no effect on builders so 292 justifiable now, Market does not agree!
Hi Troubles
Just been advised by older brother to sell all nano and cash in - No Way! I would top up if it wasn't for fact it is now my biggest holding (32% Port) - hope you have a few!
BoL

Hi NigWit
Post most appreciated.
Always thought agma maybe a bit too academic, they could invent something stunning, but are they set up to make it commercial? Won't average down, but still don't think I will lose out when they are bought.
Hi Troubles.
Profound as usual, and facts can be distorted, but who knows the truth. Facts that we believe, like Newton's gravity was simply wrong, and the moment "Quantum" is mentioned, almost every fact we believed in is wrong.

Thought for the day, if the Higgs Boson gives mass to particles, what happens to the particles that never came across Higgs Bosons. Could explain Dark matter, maybe Dark Energy.
And what gave particles Time? Maybe the Higgs, but how can you observe anything that has no time.
BoL

Hi Bumble
Can't go wrong at these Divi levels, so long term hold makes sense.
You could try chasing the Divis (like psn and tw and even bwy and rdw - much improved divis recently) by buying before XDivDt, picking up Divi then moving on to next Divi, or selling before XDivDt and pick up the surge.
Bit risky (this time no pre XDivDt surge for bdev - which I was counting on, so just picked up the Divi instead).
I think the big 5 I noted are as safe as houses and will give great Divis for next few years, but suggest you spread your Port between them, (to spread the risk).
BoL

Hi Bumble
Justifiable price (ignoring Brexit) is 539 * 14.0 / 8.1 = 931. (Cur Sp * Old Per / Cur Per).
Ie Assuming Brexit sorted, but no idea how long that will take.
Imho Brexit will have very limited effect on supply / demand for houses, so think that is their value now. Market does not agree!
BoL

Hi Always
What is Seaton Carew's twin town (that used to be written on the bridge as you approached it?)
Not been there for years, cos over the river, yet in Street Map (or something) used to be the closest Golf Club to me.
Closer in distance than Redcar (15 mins) and Saltburn (10 Mins). Seaton 1 hour 30 Mins, and they all talk different up there.
Not surprised you migrate in the winter cos of all the radioactive wolves!

Anyway, (anyhow?) think we have reached a turning point in Sp for builders (budget and EU negotiations) and a revaluation is now in progress. Hope this continues.
BoL

Hi Pickles
It is me who should apologise to you, so I am sorry for misleading you. I have no insider knowledge.
The current increase in Sp of nano is because people are beginning to believe (not realise) that the US partner is Apple, is what I should have said.
Whatever, I think that nano Sp is now going North now and will do so gradually and continually for a long time and don't really see any hiccoughs on the way. Not topping up cos my biggest holding already - and I am sure you have not missed the boat.
BoL

Hi Nano and Max
You should be celebrating the recent gains, not arguing about words! Apple might not ever admit being nano partner, but I think the market is beginning to accept they are, which infers a gradual and continued Sp increase.
I'll have a drink for you two tomorrow anyway!
Hi NigWit
Think you need to admit Feeks is the winner. I really do appreciate all the research you do and read it with great interest, but way over my head.
I first invested in nano (11/12/13, as having massive potential), Later bought some shares in agma (03/12/14 for the same reasons). Nano coming up trumps while agma has a brilliant product which does everything, but they cannot mass produce it cheaply.
Now Av price 148, cur price 42.5, Mrkt Cap £7Mn, 0.4% of Port and thinking of averaging down a bit. Nano MrkCap £107Mn and with 2d Mats could easily buy them (for Ip alone), or I think another company will.
Any thoughts? BoL

Hi all
Think you must be gobsmacked by the continued success, cos no comments.
Fear not, Sp has hit a turning point cos of Brexit hopes and budget, making +ve trend and now heading North to 930!
Not saying how long that will take, nor how many Icebergs in the way, but even Icebergs an opportunity, if you get the timing right.
Now in profit again av price 515, cur sp 539, but float av 564. Still not selling any until > 600 and quite happy picking up Divi of > 8% +.
BoL

ps
Sorry about the spacing - careless - due to writing in Notepad!

Hi Owls
I used to invest in Tech stocks (growth) 1996 to 2001 and did very well despite the dotcom Bust.
Started again in 2013, but all tech stocks bought by foreign competition (except Arm, from which I made a lot of money until they were also bought out).

In 2013 I started buying Company Refs again and even then the best value seemed to be house builders.
So besides nano (my only Tech Stock) I hold just 5 other companys: psn, tw, bdev, bwy and rdw and watch 16 others.
My system creates relative price graphs for previous 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 Years also for 2013 to 2017 yearly graphs.
Just Excel but my system copies all prices in (and does a lot more besides!)

Builders are special in that their price movement is rarely based on sudden announcements, (besides Brexit)
more like surges after RNS's. By plotting RNS dates (on separate 5 Year Company graphs) I can anticipate when
the surge will happen and when to sell after RNS. Using this system I noticed there are usually 4 times to buy
for each company per year.

So my system has a base value for each company and a float which I move between them. Usually Float held in 2 to 4 companys (same value as total Base value). Unfortunately there are 4 periods per year that my system says
sell all float, cos they don't overlap nicely. System also advises which company to buy, when and how long to hold.

Was working very nicely until Brexit messed everything up!
Hope this gives you some ideas you can use. BoL