Member Info for Nige_W

Hi KD37
Sp 792 is undervalued! which It will reach quite quickly if Ref and Remain In (3 months after Ref).
No Deal Brexit it will reach that but take much longer.
TM plan (not that it will happen) between the 2.
No other alternatives (Norway + …), cos EU not negotiating any more, so must be 2nd Ref and hopefully we remain In. Just need to be patient.
BoL

Ps
Per of 6.2 infers > 50% decrease in Eps, (as opposed to 26.6% increase).
Either Brokers / Builders are wrong or the Market. Never known such a massive difference.
BoL

Hi Helena
Sp Jun-15 191, NPTax 537, Sp Dec-18 132, NPtax 845 and you are hoping for 110!
You might well be right. I've been saying for ages Sp can't go any lower, but it has.
Brexit (whatever flavour) should have almost no effect on Supply / Demand for housing (and so profitability), hence Brokers forecasts of increase in profits from Dec-17 682 to Dec-18 856 (25.5 - EpsG 26.6%).
BoL and I hope you get back in, - makes no difference to me cos I'm not selling.

Hi Sharemin
I agree with a lot you say, just a few small points regarding builders.
Materials Inflation hardly effects builders cos only a very small % of building costs.
BofE will not raise interest rates by much.
Builders have no debt (bdev better part of £1Bn cash).
Last year bdev divi almost 10%, expecting 13% this year (like psn and tw). Can't believe any other Comanys are paying anything like that, if so Who?
I don't believe we can have a No Deal Brexit without a new Referendum - we voted to leave without knowing the terms of leaving (besides lies etc).
Still think (hope!) we are not leaving.
BoL

Hi Sunset
IMHO only 3 options left now:
Govt approves TM Deal - almost impossible regardless of what she does now - leaving
Brexit with No Deal or
Remain In.
Option 2/3 will require 2nd Ref, and now I think Remain In will be the result
Then builders Sp should double (by about 3 months after Ref}.
No Deal Brexit Sp's should not change much until people realise Bldrs still very profitable, but will take a long time for recovery (Years).
TM Deal approved - somewhere between the 2.
At least Liberum said No Deal Brexit already priced in, so Sp's should not decrease much more - if they are right!?
BoL

Hi Bluedreamer
Good point. One of the graphs I do is relative price (5th Jan 2018 = 100). After diverging a bit (led by psn and rdw now all converging around 70, as though mass sell off regardless of performance.
Fwiw (07/12/18)
rdw 72.7, bdev 70.4, psn 70.1, bwy 69.7 and tw 63.5
Hi Mark
Hopefully by last qtr next year we are still in EU and Sp's have recovered (doubled!)
BoL

Hi Wednesday
I agree with you it should benefit shareholders (cos of less tax liability), but it becomes difficult to track Sp actual performance (ie how much Sp increase due to BuyBack and how much less Divi - was it all worth it?)
Don't like things that confuse me.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Think shares should do well tomorrow cos TM survived easily (I think as expected).
Or could be US China Trade War.
None of which effect the housing crisis, but whatever it was long may it continue!
BoL

Hi Bluedreamer
My average price 515 but float average 564. If I sell all float leaving Orig shares price 350 (bought Dec-13).
Like you I am a little worried about a buyback. Expect (hope) Divi will be increased next year to be more in line with psn and tw (almost 13%) as opposed to current (9.5%).
BoL

Hi ulltaager
Tw and bdev almost went bust due to massive debt and banking crisis, Couldn't sell houses cos banks wouldn't lend so couldn't pay back debt. Psn and bwy survived crisis easily cos they didn't have massive debt. Now all builders have a huge amount of cash, so even another banking crisis will have little affect on them.
So many builders lost their jobs at that time (and have not been replaced) it created the current shortage of new houses being built. Whatever the result of Brexit it will take years for supply of houses to catch up with demand so builders will continue to prosper.
BoL

Hi Bluedreamer
What a ridiculous situation to be in - is the Sp worth 250 or 1000? I find it quite easy to justify 1000 (from Eps margin...) so to justify 250 you need a serious catastrophe - Nuclear War, Alien Invasion... - certainly not Brexit.
As Mark said the longer you hold the better, just be patient.
BoL

Hi WiganW
Done well with bkgh, sold out some time ago cos worried about situation with LSE. This is the coy to study (re Buybacks) ie how much has Sp grown, Divis decreased... Almost impossible to say when Sp flutters all over the place depending on latest (irrelevant!) Brexit news.
BoL

Hi Bamps
What is the scrip issue?
Hi H-hi
Tw has loads of money in the bank and shareholders are in effect a bank loan (trading the initial loan). When Sp low maybe a good idea to pay off the (shareholders) loan, or part of it. This should boost the Sp by the amount bought back, but will decrease the Divis by the same amount. Not sure how this benefits share holders.
BoL

Hi KD37
Assuming article 50 revoked in Spring (with or without referendum), Sp should be well on the way to 1000 in 6 months time. 250 could be possible if No Deal Brexit but still worth 1000 imho.
BoL

Hi sunset
Completely agree with you. If, as I suspect, article 50 is revoked and we remain in EU, I am going to use my HSBC credit facility (up to 50% of Trading A/c) and invest in Builders cos Per's will return to pre Brexit levels, which means the Sp will (roughly) double for all builders.
Tempted to do it whatever the result (though more cautiously - only increase borrowings when decent profit made), cos even No Deal Brexit will have very little effect on builders profits.
I sent a message on psn board summarising my ideas (why builders are so undervalued).
BoL

Hi Tom
Might sound like a good idea if (as I believe) Sp undervalued. Apparently bkgh been doing this for a while and whether it has benefitted shareholders or not is a matter of debate,
BoL

Hi sunset
What a time to be a day trader (if you can get your timing right).
Just think long term prospects excellent so quite happy to hold.
BoL

pps
If you look at after hours trades (all buys), you might think it could be good for tomorrow, but means nothing!
Sp going down so earlier trades probably more than UT price (so Buy inferred).

Ps
Used Gtr than Less than signs which this system doesn't understand.
220 - 17 % not equal 140

Thanks WiganW
Given the numbers they quote I can't see how this adds up to a 17% adjustment - also 220 - 17% 140.
If you are interested I have sent a message on psn board summarising my point of view. Not copying it here cos I've said most of the same things here already.
Going to see if I can get my smart telly to fast forward the date to August next year, last time I tried that it took me about an hour to get it back into dumb mode.
Then, (when back in dumb mode), I will watch "Oh Brother" again - if I have time.
Usually makes me feel better.
BoL