Member Info for Nige_W

3 Big sales about £200k at 41. Type O so probably 1 Buyer, 1 Seller and Sp did not move,
Looks more and more like 1 guy? is holding price at 41 - if price dips he buys at sellers price (hence sell).
Makes a mess of charts - resistence level 41 and no 2nd resistence level.
Could be totally wrong again but it infers only 1 direction, and the guy could be called Mr A????.
Ha Ha, will get into trouble over this speculation from NigWit no doubt!
BoL

Hi Tom
Going to buy an old bungalow in Spring - happy to add about £50k to value of house, (from savings). I might borrow the same amount off HSBC (trading Credit - very low interest rate) to increase holdings so Trade A/c remains the same. Older daughter in process of buying (old) house, offer accepted only question before or after XMas. Little daughter moving in spring to old house.
The point is we all need to move regardless of Brexit, Trump, Trade Wars, -ve Equity and I think this applies to most people who are buying houses For the kids -ve Equity is my worry, but don't see it happening.
Not one of us intending buying a new house but this does not matter - if you push up old house prices the value of new houses increase by same amount. So Help to buy is really meaningless (like most other Govt schemes!)

Did you work in Civils. Geo Wimpey created a Civils business (can't remember the name, cos worried about being Nationalised at the time) and also Wimpey Asphalt (road surfacing & flat roofs). All this in 70's when they realised the danger was the Govt, and even then only trades employed were BLayers, Joiners and Painters.

Hi Troubles
Quite agree the market is diven by fear, so need to anticipate.
TM Brexit Deal accepted by Govt - slow recovery of builders Sp as market realises not affecting Builders profits (maybe 3 years for Sp to double + Eps increase over those 3 years).
TM Brexit Deal rejected - she resigns, leading to new leader / referendum (about 6 months to sort the mess out) and if Remain In vote, Sp will recover (double) in a few months
Or Vote for Brexit with No Deal - Time to Migrate!
EU has said (time and again) no more negotiations, so no point in a new election (other than to replace TM).
Who would you like to see replace her?
All is madness!
Have a great W/E and BoL

Hi WiganW
Market in Blind Panic mode - who said it was always right?
The briefest look at the numbers show an Industry performing fantastically well, which should boost Per well above (historical) 14.0 - but now under 7.0 ie Value of tw more than twice MrktCap.
Only danger is (as andykc said) media and Carney distort real situation to such an extent that it becomes self fulfilling. Fear of -ve equity … but not likely given the difference between supply / demand.
Very tempted to increase investment using Hsbc credit after Govt v
otes out TM Deal which (I thinkj) should be low point.
BoL
BoL

Hi Tom
I left tw in 1980 when HQ was in Hammersmith. Bet that place was far bigger than Ruislip.
Where are they now and how many employed there?
Interesting to see the decrease in numbers over the years.
BoL

Hi Mark
Don't understand your valuation methods but surprised bwy behind others on any system.
I watch gfrd but hold no shares there, too much Civils for my liking.
Cannot believe current prices, when builders doing so well. Fear of economic downturn? Even if No Deal Brexit and downturn, it does not affect housing shortage (hence Supply / Demand and profitability).
Probably a huge opportunity now (if you get the timing right), but I'll just hold, and not take any risks! The value remains (whatever the Sp).
BoL

Hi Kitsz, Poker et al
The Brexit Deal will be rejected by the Govt as an inappropriate compromise.
It is not negotiable cos EU have said accept it or not.
Then only alternative is Remain In or Brexit with No Deal - ie 2nd Referendum. At least we know what we are voting for, as opposed to an idea (with projected lies).
Did TM ever want the deal to be accepted? (Choice of people - creating Trade Deals in Africa when she had taken control …)
Brexit is too difficult and was never going to happen, so last vote didn't matter - Politicians will guide us thru this mess (so I have the greatest respect for TM who was given an impossible job and succeeded very well, whilst pretending she was still going for Brexit!). Never thought I would say that!
If we leave, Scotland, N Irealnd and Wales will (eventually) leave UK and the Govt has destroyed our Country.
This is serious and determines the future. Referendums should be banned (as in Germany) cos we elect people to represent us - for what that is worth!
At least it has shook up Europe who might improve their system a bit.
Bol, and if it all goes Pear shaped I will migrate somewhere.

Hi Rawson
Don't think renegotiation is an option - EU have said accept the Deal asis or No Deal.
Assuming Govt rejects TM deal, just 2 options left.
BoL

Hi Mark
I agree not much to choose between them, but you don't mention my best builder bwy.
I plot relative strength (from start of year 100) which are strangely convergent from 77.4 to 79.4 except tw 72.5. Makes me think actual performance overshadowed by politics. Then those previously doing well probably more undervalued than the rest, which is psn and rdw, (but new CEO and Chairman). Rdw and bwy have the lowest Per's, so maybe best value. Or psn and bdev have most cash so safest.
Bwy Fin XdivDt tomorrow 95 pps = 3.43% at 2769, IntDiv 48 pps = 1.73% so Yield = 5.16%. If significant drop tomorrow maybe that is the one to go for.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Never known such a difference between Brokers / Builders forecasts and Sp. One thing for sure, No Deal Brexit thoroughly built into Sp (though could drop even more if we accept No Deal). EU says negotiations finished so I think after TM Brexit rejected by Govt, only alternative is referendum: Leave with No Deal or Remain In.
Now we know what we are voting for - Scotland, N Ireland and Wales are now Remainer's and if England overrides them, forget about UK - England will consist of London, the Shires and a few Tax Havens.
Assuming Remain In vote all builders should (roughly) double in price quite quickly, or No Deal Brexit vote, it will take a few years for FatCats to realise Value is dependent on Supply / Demand.
Messed my system up but quite happy picking up 12% + Divis (while EPS growing), so don't have to do anything anyway. In process of changing system to pick up big Divis from the big 5.
Tempted to use HSBC credit facility to top up if Sp goes any lower.
I said all along Brexit is too difficult and won't happen. Now on the verge of this coming true, so TM was just an interim puppet, but who will take over the helm?
If there is an election I will no doubt vote Liberal SDP again, cos I have no idea of what Labour Policy is.
BoL
Ps
Tw running a tight ship £600 Mn Cash, after paying out £500 Mn to shareholders, while MrktCap £4,843 Mn?

Hi Bamps
Wot risk when you have £600 Mn in the bank?
BoL

Hi LeeRex
I am not joking when I say tw worth twice the current price simply based on Per, curr about 8 trad about 14, so if return to old levels Sp should be 153.3 / 8 * 14 (almost double). Or, why is tw worth 153 now when profit 21 pps when (Dec-17) tw 206 when profit 17.9 pps (Brexit already having an effect and Per 11.5) or (Jun-15) tw 191 when profit 13.3 pps (before Brexit and Per 14.4)
The reason for this is Brokers estimates rely on Brexit having very little effect on Supply / Demand for housing, while the Market believes any slowing of economy has a negative effect on Builders. This is a chicken and egg situation.
Last (banking) crisis caused a global slowdown in Economy that hit builders badly cos Banks would not lend.
Previously, large increases in interest rates (caused slowdown) and again builders couldn't sell houses cos interest rates made them unaffordable. So an economic slowdown is accompanied by builders suffering badly.
But, assuming no banking crisis, and no big increase in interest rates, nothing to stop builders continued growth (as they have done for last 10 years), despite austerity, Brexit, trade war... housing shortage not going away any time soon.
BoL

Hi Nano
Don't think we are seeing the whole story. I guess somebody is buying whenever price decreases below 41, else LSE Snafu again.

Hi LeeRex and welcome
Good idea to have a look thru tw post history, when you have some time, You can get a better feeling for the Coy.
You will see I value tw at about twice current price (and rest of big builders about the same - besides Lse).
Either Builders / Brokers are correct, or the Market / City is correct ie current Sp.
Of course you must make your own decisions, but I only invest in 5 builders and nanoco (based on a value idea).
Not criticising your investments, but don't believe you think any of them are worth double the current Sp (besides tw!)
Can't say how long it will take tw to reach true value - Brexit needs to be sorted, but in meantime quite happy picking up 12% + divis and holding. The Sp will be volatile for next few months so could be a good idea to trade daily, providing you get the timing right - all based on Politics so who knows?
I expect Sp to drop next week as TM solution is rejected, she resigns and a new election / referendum is called. I will hold anyway cos of Divi, and supply is not going to catch up with demand for years, That is the reason for builders increasing Growth, Profits, Margins, Cash Held and Divis for the last 10 Years.
Personally, I prefer to be patient rather than jumping around (though my system is based on moving a float from 1 builder to another, depending on RNS Dates and Divis).
BoL

Ps
Don't know what happened to dates - last two 22/07/16 and 26/08/16.

Hi Max
Just found old BackUp
Before Softbank T/o Arm price around 1000 (MrktCap £14Bn) and Softbank paid 1700 (£24Bn). Sp increased from 970 (17/06/16) to 1189 (15/07/16, sniff of T/o) then 1679 (22/07/69) then 1700 (26/08/18 T/o complete).
I cannot remember ever being asked for my approval, and a bit hasty (as you infer), just over 1 month.
Don't know anything about Softbank (Jap Bank?), but then to sell out to Chinese verges on treason (no doubt all preplanned) - as BBD said it should never have been allowed.
Had a quick look at Arm site - still leading the world in all forms of chip design, and the last British Great Tech stock.
Hopefully nano next one but not yet when MrktCap only about £100Mn.
BoL

Hi sharemin
Besides builders lost due to Bank crisis, have you noticed the age of those left? Had a pal who was foreman steel erector and most of the people he worked with were around his age (coming up to retirement). Most young'uns probably from E Europe. All due to a lack of apprenticeships - but why should bdev, tw … train bricklayers, joiners … when they don't employ any?
I think land prices are based on supply demand, and don't think (big builders at least) are banking land. The Letvin report said as much.
Not too worried about Brexit cos don't think it will make any difference to shortage of houses (at least for next 5-10 years).
$64k question - when to Buy. Personally I'm all in and not selling any hoping to buy back later at a lower price.

3 ideas for you.
Buy in now (cos imho bdev worth > 1000 when Brexit sorted) and no way missing the boat, or
Wait until change in direction of Sp before buying, or
Buy 25% now use (4 rung) ladder system to average down if sp goes down or top up if sp goes up.

Can hardly miss the boat cos could take 5 years for bdev to reach 1000 (then about 1500 cos of inc in Eps).
Plan 3 could be an inappropriate compromise - bit like Brexit!
I expect things to start moving soon (one way or another) and price could be volatile for next few months - which suits Plan 3 best.
BoL

Hi Kitsz
Couldn't find the article you mentioned - found Alex Brummer and some articles he wrote - always more general, World Economics as opposed to Builders.
Building is not Rocket Science, if you build houses and demand > supply, you can sell them easily.
Downside is if Banker not lending (nobody can buy what you build) or Interest rates go ballistic (nobody can afford the payments), then Builders will suffer. Purely coincidence that these things created an Economic downturn. Neither of which should happen (cos controlled by BofE now, not Politicians).
So builders future is fine now (apart possibly for LSE), cos in the Shires Demand far > Supply.
There is nothing to worry about - Sp doesn't matter until you sell - could go down to 100, but will return to more than 800 when Brexit shambles sorted.
Bottom line is builders can't build enough houses cos Govt put so many builders out of work 10 years ago - almost destroying the industry, so now we need Poles... to make up the numbers.
I got out of Building in 1980 when Maggie increased Interest rates to destroy the Unions - got into Computing and never looked back - no doubt many people like me as a result of (Govt created) Banking Crisis 10 years ago.
Don't know how Historians will regard Maggie in the future, but the Unions were destroying the Country and she stopped that. Just created a whole bunch of new Issues!
Hope my Pal Troubles doesn't read this cos he will go ballistic and could be banned!
BoL

Hi Bamps
Don't know anything about ECM, but in case of TW massive overreaction to Brexit debacle - will it effect demand for houses?
BoL

Hi H-hi
Might be right about London, tw National and supply not catching up with demand, (and won't for a long time).
Record from when?
BoL

Hi Graham
You made an investment and to pull out now would give you a loss - so don't pull out! Why would you want to when making > 10% Divis and (when Brexit sorted) Sp will return to > 200. (Much greater than 200!).
BoL