Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
I have an old home with purlins and tie beams, which I floored and made into 2 rooms, but just for storage.
Far more useful to increase the pitch.

Hi Sunset
Very happy with psn (imho about 15% undervalued cos of Brokensh*t interview - so waiting for a recovery). Also rdw, special Divi of 30p (but called Type B shares), on top of Int of 10p = about 6.5%, but I think XDivDt (or issue of type B shares) not until early April for Spec.
Need to hold for above before topping up of bdev (and tw). Bad idea to put so much in psn after losing Ceo and rdw after losing chairman, founder and biggest shareholder (Steve Morgan).
Imho short term politics will determine sp now, if extension to exit date, sp will muddle on (maybe gradual increase in prices), but think EU will reject it, then we Must revoke article 50. Result short term psn, tw and bdev will rocket, longer term rdw and bwy will gradually rise to more than 1st 3.
Brokensh*t has wiped about £800m off psn Mrkt Cap, and is meaningless cos no action will be taken.
At least I'm making money on both (despite float), psn 8.5%, rdw 25.3%.

Roof Tiles. If you decrease the pitch (needing less tiles) you will have to strengthen the trusses (increasing their cost). Don't think it will make much difference. Maybe a better idea is to fabricate roof, walls, floors... in a factory so building is no more than assembling precision made parts (addressing quality, skills, insulation...) Still need ground works but only a tiny % of cost and once founds in (built in summer) you can probably erect the house in a week - used to be 26 - with timber framed was 18 ages ago, don't know what it is now (leading to cash flow benefits).
BoL

Hi Sunset
Still invested here, but not much float. Intend to top up float, but not selling psn at cur price nor rdw until I know I'm getting Divi (6.5%). Av price 450, made up of Base holding at 350 (bought 13/08/14) and cur float at 578 (11/06/18).
Now TM deal rejected and No deal rejected, all that is left is Revoke article 50. Just hope that happens soon (No extension) then Sp should increase 50% +. (my target 945)
BoL

Hi Bamps
Thanks for your excellent summary of Aims. I looked them up and Sp very volatile, so need to be on your toes (and get your timing right! - not my strong point.)
Message on psn board explaining low (comparative) Sp is more or less quoting Brokensh*t (workmanship, lease hold, ceo bonus), first 2 points ancient History, last point, none involved work for psn now. Letwin report last year addressed all of this (and builders collusion), and nothing was found or done.
Since TM in control of house building now (who would never target a single company), I think Brokensh*t can be ignored (but market doesn't agree). Given report will be forgotten soon and psn returns to normal (comparative Sp), I think this implies over 15% increase (2500 +). No idea when this will happen but another 4.9% (Fin Div) on the way in June, so not too bovvered.
Need to decide on Sell Price and review when that is reached.
If Remain In builders should all fly by 50% + (to Pre Brexit Per's).
BoL

Ps
Think I will invest Divi from psn and rdw in ggp, sou, ika, corp? (can't find them) and ukog as a starter.
Sirius very popular but could be a bit early to invest.
If Remain In builders should fly.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Congrats on ggp and Tom for introducing them.
All going to plan so far, TM Deal rejected, expect tomorrow No Deal Brexit will be rejected, then vote on extended time on leave Date (TM said no point) and even if agreed by Parlt, I think it will be rejected by EU. Only chance of them accepting it is 2nd Ref or Gen Election. That leaves only one option - revoke Article 50.
Hopefully this will happen before 29th then tw will be on the way to 300 by early summer.
If Brexit rejected I will have to check my numbers (300 calcd ages ago).
BoL

Hi Bamps
Thought new Ceo was from bkgh (not gfrd) so I had a quick look at bvs site - all about selling houses, not Directors or Senior Mangers. Also very impressed by bkgh (and done well with them), but don't touch LSE now. They are doing a share buyback (as some suggest tw should do), but nobody is convinced it is of value to shareholders.
What trade was your relation (not that it matters - any tradesman used to be far stronger than old managers - but now with all the power tools?)
All gone very quiet here as Politics unravels. I expect TM Deal to be rejected then only alternatives left are No Deal Brexit or No Brexit. Don't think EU will agree to any extension - almost possible if 2nd referendum agreed.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Friday closing prices tw 140 04/01/19, 179 08/03/19.
Inc (179-140)/140*100 = 27.9 % so Rel Price about 128 when 04/01/19 = 100.
Same calcs for rest.
Incidentally bvs = 33% (859 and 1141) - worth watching.
BoL

Thought for the dat.
Change since New Year according to my system.
Tw 128
Bdev 128
Rdw 124 - not much cash after Int & Spec Divi (40p = 6.5%))
Bwy 115 - No net cash
Psn 112 - Brokensh*t !
Somebody said some time ago Bldrs are like synchronised swimmers and all reflect each other.
Implies Psn undervalued by at least by 16% unless He manages to do something (cos most net cash / profits / margin).

Interesting to note TM now talking about the possibility of No Brexit (now No Deal Brexit has been rejected by Parlt - but not binding). Just hope no 1 Year extension to Leave Date before they decide to Remain In, (any extension has to be agreed by EU, who without Parlt agreeing a Plan they will probably not agree to).
So maybe they will revoke Article 50 before 29th, and we can all live happily ever after.

Hi Tom
£60k profit from £200k house was from the article I posted and applies to psn - 30% margin, the highest in the sector.
Think tw running at about 20% (= £40k on £200k). Profit and Margin is calcd after all costs, and have been increasing year by year since about 2010.
That is why I am invested here cos can't find such margins with such low Per's anywhere else (besides Cash and divis).
BoL

Hi Love_You
I suggest you start your own Building company and wish you luck. Some issues you will find is hiring staff / sub contractors to do the work, cos of skills shortage created by Govt, which has not been addressed at all.
How do you get an apprenticeship when none on offer (from Govt or Industry who don't employ them anyway - all Subbies), and look at the ages of workers on site.
I agree these margins are embarrassingly high, but can you blame the builders for this? They are making hay while the sun shines, before the Govt creates the next disaster (at least they don't control Interest Rates now).
The margins will not continue indefinitely, cos other Coys (Civils like Gfrd) are moving resources to house building to pick up the profits, which don't exist in their work.
Disagree few weak players left, due to disasters in order to survive they had to be super efficient (and difficult to compete with).
Still think the answer is PreFabs. Not just for quality, but also mass production and the increased energy efficiency that it enables - see my link below to HufHaus.
BoL

Hi Owls again
All things being equal I expect psn to recover quickly - but they are not cos of Brokensh*t.
I think psn fall about in line with other builders who are all down. Stuck with them now until at least 2384.
BoL

Hi Owls
Windfall tax on Builders, when Govt created the original problem by putting builders out of work, and then introduce H2B to fix their first mistake, making their second mistake, so lets all blame it on the builders!
BoL

Hi Tom
If you believe builders fortunes based on Supply / Demand (like me), then all 1st time buyers are not going to give up the idea of owning (or renting) a house, in fact most will still buy or rent somewhere. So Demand will hardly have changed. Just few 1st time buyers will buy new and be replaced by existing owners.
Don't think any significant news on Brexit, could have missed it.
BoL

Ps
Base Value original (Nov 14) av price 1512 + increase in Base (Dec 17) 2652, New Base av 1763, which will be my av price after selling Float (unless I increase Base again).

Hi Cjh
Hope this is not a change in momentum for builders.
Psn (as a Company) cannot be blamed for the Bonus, just the individuals involved (none of whom work there any more). Build quality no worse than others and don't think an improvement should effect profits.
Some time ago there was speculation that a Chinese company was going to start building PreFabs here, but amounted to nothing. I think this is the future (to address quality) see German version:
https://www.huf-haus.com/en-uk/europa/london/
BoL

Hi Tom
Don't know but this could have something to do with it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47372385
Help to buy should last at least 4 more years anyway, and I don't think it will make much difference to new house construction if it is stopped.
BoL

Hi Cjh
Psn is a great builder which has outperformed almost all other (Nationals) over the last 7 years (tw, bdev, bwy, but not rdw), so good place to be.
I go on about Brokensh*t, who managed to decrease psn MrktCap by over 10% (about £800 Mn) and if he wasn't an Mp, would be sent to prison for that.
Couple of points you may have missed, TM is now '"In Control" of Building Policy, no doubt after reading the report from the Letvin enquiry (unlike Brokesh*t?), who was tasked with figuring big builders collusion and what builders were doing wrong, then they were sent to Europe in the Summer (Jollys) to find out how EU managed it.
All of this leaves Brokensh*t credibility at Nil, yet psn still down £800 Mn (or Sp should be about 2700 now.)
No idea how long his Market Manipulation will last but the price is not bouncing back as quickly as I thought it would.
Decrease in Sp today is not too surprising, people taking profits before anticipated decrease in price tomorrow.
Set your sell price around 2650 (+5% Divi) and sell all or part creating a base value in psn, then with last in first out you always hold your base value.
Mine is 2088 for psn (= 6% Divi) and when I sell Divi Float, av Price decreases.
BoL

Hi Cjh
If you bought psn on Sp drop I expect you bought around 2430 while I bought before drop at av 2384. This just reflects the massive change in sentiment towards builders by the average of about 27% increase since New Year (courtesy BofA ML report), except psn and bwy. Bargains now?
Long may it continue, and don't see any reason why it should stop, cos I hope the Market is beginning to realise that builders fortunes based on supply / demand - not Brexit, Politics, Trump, Trade Wars... Marked down by the Market since start of 2016, (as proved by Per's) while they have all thrived
Tw and Psn XDivDt's not until June so don't need to invest there yet, but psn Int XDivDt (5% +) on Thursday, before FinDiv (almost another 5% in June).
Given this situation I am hoping for a Sp of 2700 for psn (cur price + 10%) shortly after XDivDt = about 12% + 5% Divi = 17%, so my advice don't Bail out for 5%.
I could be totally wrong again, but think you could make at least 10% out of holding psn for divi. Just decide on your sell price (cost + 10%) and review when that Sp achieved.
BoL