Member Info for Nige_W

Hi All
Easy to read too much into small sp movements, but all builders up (makes me think No Deal Brexit a bit further away), tw up 0.6%, bdev 0.9%, psn 1.4%, bwy 1.7% and rdw 2.2%. The companies that would be most (badly) affected by No Deal Brexit (rdw and bwy) up the most, followed by psn (being forgiven?)
BoL

Hi upbeat
I was under the impression that nanosys did not produce CFQD's but see:
https://www.nanosysinc.com/products
Whatever Samsung use does not mean use they could not benefit from nano's patents to increase production and quality, so I am sure they would be very interested, and as I said before they would get rid of issues concerning patent infringements and pick up 100 of the best Nano Mats Scientists in the world. They bought QDVision, why not buy Nanosys and Nanoco - then the world leader in CFQD's - with a huge potential for expansion beyond display.
At a price of 11.65, I think nano are massively undervalued whatever happens (but no idea what/when something will happen). Things are happening (no doubt and quickly) in the background - talks with Apple, no T/O mentioned yet, so what can ME say? Think an announcement will be made fairly soon, (so hopefully good in short term).
I just hope nano survives this crisis and I hope Apple guarantees this - the main reason no bidding war yet (Imho).
Btw just had a look for Nanosys Mrkt Cap and can't find anything? Even on the other board. Too late now.
BoL

Hi ddubya
The only thing I disagree with you is the value of IP. Samsung is capable of calculating the savings made by using nano's mass production system... so can value nano's IP. Also it gets rid of the possible issue of corporate lawyers getting hold of nano's IP and suing them.
From this point of view I regard Samsung would happily pay £200m + for nano, and revenue does not matter at all.
Not only that but they will also acquire 100 odd of the best R&D nano mats Scientists in the world. More difficult to value, but to become undisputed World leader in CFQD display tech must appeal to them (Betamax?)
Don't need to make much money out of CFQD's when (almost) every display maker in the world are paying you royalties (as proven by Arm).
Last point, I think Govt should prevent a sale, but on Jollies now, and far too bovvered about their own jobs to worry about nano. They should never have allowed the sale of Arm.
BoL

Hi Troubles and havealot
Badly worded for a reason or lovers Tiff? I wonder who wrote it. Everybody thought Apple had pulled the plug, yet still in negotiations. Or just sell at 45 and buy back at 12.7?
BoL

Hi ddubya
I agree no guarantee of revenue (maybe I could argue that some income from Dow, Merck and Wah Hong for testing), but that is not the point. The potential is massive (revenue hardly matters).
More importantly, even if worst comes to the worst and nano goes bust, their IP and production facility at Runcorn is of far greater value than their current Mrkt Cap (of £28m). Sale price of nano should be at least asset value + a premium, which I regard as £100m + a lot!
I think there is no way nano can go bust and expect an offer to be made by a predator, then maybe followed by offers from Samsung, Apple, Wah Hong...
Arm Holdings never made anything - entirely IP - but SoftBank paid £1,500m for them. Of course they had a huge amount of (increasing) revenue, which is where nano will be in a few years time.
Investing is a gamble and a judgement. If nano sold for >£100m my judgement is correct (it is massively undervalued now), else it goes bust and patents are worthless, then I was wrong. So Dyor…
BoL

Hi Johnson
All depends on your investing style. Bdev best performer, psn worst so sell psn to buy bdev. Or psn most undervalued bdev least, so sell bdev to buy psn. Not very useful.
All 3 coys are pretty similar (big Eps Growth, Margins, loads of cash, can sell all they build...) but psn a bit better than the others, with lowest Per. So they have the most potential (or value). But bad media coverage is why they have fallen so far behind. How long they take to overcome this and restore their reputation is hard to say, but Dispatches program had almost no effect on Sp.
My strategy is to hold a base value in them all and move a float between them depending on upcoming RNS's (if I think they will be good). tw IntRes 30/07/19, which I expect to be good (buy before), psn IntRes 20/08/19 - how much will new policies have impacted profits, but offset by improved service? bdev FinRes 04/09/19 good (estimated dates).
I hold all 3 as well and also bwy and rdw (even lower Per's, but less cash). The reason for lower Per's is cos market expects a slump after Brexit, and will need cash to survive the slump. In fact neither company has much debt, and I don't believe there will be a slump anyway.
If No Brexit I expect psn Per to double (from 6.9 to 13.8) and so double the Sp with the rest not far behind. If No Deal Brexit a much slower recovery as people realise there is no slump.
Tropical rain storm here right now, hope your weather is better, BoL

Hi BtB & TLW
Don't think any chance of another dilution (hopefully BoD learnt from last time).
People keep talking of no revenue after 2019, but this is simply not true - see:
www.nanocotechnologies.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/nanoco-group-plc-annual-report-and-accounts-2017.pdf
In particular the developments made with Wah Hong, Dow and Merck on pages 4 and 5. No contracts yet but can't be far away. This was all before Apple pulled out (which I think might not be a bad thing for nano, like their originally exclusive deal with Dow).
Big Backers like Loam, Deutsche Bank, and Edison still believe in nano and Apple has not deserted them. I think it was a badly worded press release when they announced Apple had pulled the plug (they haven't cos still talking) and think a Deal is still possible. Maybe that is why nobody has yet put a bid in? Don't argue with Apple! SoftBank (who bought Arm Holdings for £ 1.5B Bn from memory) and Samsung would love to get nano IP.
Investing is gambling and speculation, but at least you can increase your chances of doing well by only investing in companies that are clearly undervalued. CFQDots are the future, and nano better positioned than any other Coy to exploit this. Based on Man Uni general research (nano 750 patents now) as opposed to Samsung (150 patents incl QD Visions - for which they paid £75m - Display only).
Btw my other investments are in House builders, clearly undervalued simply by Per's. A collapse in House prices already built into the Sp, but Imho the most undervalued, psn should be double the current price. If a massive slump all they do is lay off subbies, sit on Land Bank and rely on > £1 Bn Cash until demand increases again (like they did in Banking crisis).
Incidentally, when I worked for Geo Wimpey house building was known as SB (Speculative Building) then changed to PD (Private Development). All is a guessing game?
Need to look at the other Board to see what my Guru NigWit is saying.
BoL

Hi TLW
Thankyou for the compliments, but unfortunately I think you are confusing me with NigWit. He is on the other board, but unfortunately not here any more.
I am hoping for a lot more than 20p, but no idea when it will get there.
BoL

Hi TLW
Given the worst possible case, nano runs out of cash and goes bust, there can be no doubt a company will buy them.
Current MrktCap £27m, I regard their IP alone worth several times that, let alone plant....
Predators must be lurking now and in the mean time what can ME say? In discussions with several companies negotiating price, but can't say anything until a firm offer is made.
In any event the company must be worth at least its assets value (whatever you value that at).
All but 1 of the shorters pulled out (Teton Capital 0.67%, down from 7.5%).
No way am I selling, BoL

Nigel is a doer, Mike a talker - no need for Mike if Nigel not there.
Have a look at Jap philosophy re this, Management is a service to enable/help the workers to do their jobs.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Just found this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanoco
"Nanoco has developed a range of CFQD® quantum dots, free of any regulated heavy metals.[12]"
A Range of ?
"Nanoco has developed a patented "molecular seeding" method of QD synthesis.[13] Unlike "high temperature dual injection" methods of QD synthesis, the molecular seeding method circumvents the need for a high temperature injection step by utilising molecules of a molecular cluster compound to act as nucleation sites for nanoparticle growth.
To maintain particle growth, further precursor additions are made at moderate temperatures until the desired QD size is reached. The process can easily be scaled to large volumes, and is used to produce Nanoco’s CFQD® heavy metal-free quantum dots."
Also mentions uses: Lighting, Displays, Bio Imaging and CIGS/CIS. Worth a read and shows potential.

I think it was Slater Walker noted for asset stripping - now nano valued at £27m @ 11.6p I think strippers will be very interested right now! All sorts of Peptides that Nano Dots can be made from apparently, but Nano "has a range of"? Now my hero has gone I am having to look up these things myself, and if I was NigWit I would not have asked the question.
BoL

Hi Bamps
That's a good idea - let the Queen (or Prince Charles) take over, Can't do any worse!
BoL

The reason I ask is are nano patents potentially useful to Samsung (CFQD's based on Indium), and if Nano CFQD's not based on Indium, could they be useful anyway.
No signs of a T/O yet.

Hi Troubles
What is even more Pthetic is they are both still pretending (lying) they are still going for a Deal.
Nobody can accept TM Deal and no other Deal possible.
2nd Ref essential, No Deal or No Brexit. Looks like we will need a new GE as well - and so we stumble onwards to the cliff.
BoL

2 party system is broke, needs fixing. Don't know the best idea.
Suggest abolish them and replace with an unpaid National council with about 50 reps.
BoL.

Hi Bamps
Never heard of Harworth Gp (hwg) so had a quick look at them.
Main point is I think Per 12.3. How is that justifiable when Psn < 7 and bdev and tw not much more?
Don't know what % revenue due to building and what to land sales. In any event high risk Imho cos what happens if a slump and land prices plummet? Same reason I have avoided gle (Gleeson) but they have done very well.
BoL

Hi Chitty
Best to ignore him. Prev message claimed £350m for 3,500 homes for 1 Hours work (=£100,000 per hour). Doesn't say which legal firms, don't know what he bases increase of 500 houses to 4,000 on, multiple legal actions? Govt action?
Last point Per < 7 means Imho psn share price should be double what it is now. Even if No Deal Brexit (so nobody wants to buy houses any more?), psn will lay off subbies and sit on land bank until things pick up again (like they did last time).
BoL

Hi Johnson
Always best to check things, which I didn't!
My system calcs Per (all automated) from numbers from Company Refs (which I haven't received this month).
Have Dec-18 Eps 243, Dec-19 269 (Est) producing cur Eps 255. Expect these nos are 1 month out. What do you pet for bdev and tw Per's?
As you say it makes laughable Per'e even more ridiculous.
My apologies and BoL.

Hi all
Dispatches not as bad as it could have been.
Psn can still sell all they build so not too worried, and sentiment already built into Sp (psn per 7.8, bdev & tw 8.3)
BoL

Hi WiganW
Obviously I've not seen the Prog, but basically (if -ve) it is History - not applicable any more cos of new management, new ideas (snagging retention...) Could have a short term effect, but doesn't change the numbers or value of Builders. Psn already about 20% behind bdev and tw - can't get much worse (I hope!)
Don't matter much cos I'm not selling.
Hi Troubles
Sounds like you think it's all a conspiracy. Wouldn't surprise me (too much money involved, all professionals). Women's football and Rugby Union still seem nicely amateurish to me and worth watching.
BoL