Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Strictly
I started investing again in 2013 and have been developing my system since then.
I still have investments in other companies (now just 1 Nanoco) and have never made a performance analysis of my system.
The point is it not fixed. One example I gave below was tw. Great PreFins last year does not mean good PreFins this year, in fact as I said I have no float there at the moment.
Reason is poor Interims, due to quality problems. Same applies to Psn (but I do have a small float there for Divi).
Everything messed up by Brexit, and at one point I started chasing Divis (due to the frustration of wild swings in prices) and sold some psn and tw at a loss, just to get the float back.
Also If I was to maximise profit I would have all float in one company but prefer to spread float over 2, 3 (preferably) or even 4 companies.
Result - Even if I did analyse my performance, fairly meaningless cos I didn't follow my system.

My estimate of 20% better than LTBH is based on creating a plan, and seeing how it works for different years. Of course this is retrospective, but on several plans created I find it quite easy to make 20%.
Thought about increasing Held Float (Cash) to counter Brexit slumps, but have decided to ignore that for now - maybe will do it 2nd half of year as deadline approaches.

Still going to be plagued bt Brexit (for another Year), and I think once that is out of the way my system will work better.
Per's have increased since the election, but I think still unreasonably low and could double when the market revalues Builders.

For my 5 Companies when 04/01/13 = 100, I have at 27/12/19:
Rdw 444.7, Bwy 350.1, Psn 331.3, Bdev 330.1 & Tw 263.5
Last Year 04/01/19 = 100, I have at 27/12/19:
Bdev 157.4, Rdw 151.2, Bwy 145.0, Tw 138.6 & Psn 132.1
In process of creating Plans for Bkgh, Gle, Csp, Crst & Bvs
BoL

Hi Bamps
My first (holiday) job was installing boilers for North Sea Gas, 50 years ago I think.
Felt like a Millionaire (£30 per week). Producing Hydrogen used to be very expensive - no idea what process they use now.
I wonder how they will organise switch over from 20% to 100%, cos have to change Boilers and Cookers. That will cost a bob or two, and cannot expect householders to pay for that.
Won't happen for years anyway, until production capacity built.
BoL

Hi cyberduck
No large sample stats, but that is the point of my system (to identify the surges / slumps).
My original idea was watch Sp movement before / after RNS's. One that stands out in particular is Rdw. They only produce about 2 RNS's per year, IntRes (about 24/01/20) and FinRes (01/09/20).
Almost always a surge in Sp after both (but particularly Fin Res) - Buy about 5 weeks before, then sell 1 or 2 weeks after.
Check out last 5 years Sp movement between those dates.
I have a 5 year plan for each company displaying Relative Strength by Date, and a comparative plan of Relative Price and Relative Stregth by date for last 8, 5, 3, 2 and each year showing all my 5 companies.
This combined with my planner (which recalcs results of different investment plans, Historically), produces my investment plan.

But most importantly, keep up with developments, cos this is only a guide. For instance Last year surge in tw after PreFins, (this year possibly tomorrow) but slump after PreInts (due to quality problems).
I have no Float in tw now cos don't think they will be great (cos of quality and / or weather).
Can't do anything about Politics / Media / Brexit, so basically I ignore them.
BoL

Hi Owls
The population problem lies with mainly with the developing countries in Africa, Central and South America, India and the Far East. UNESCO is doing its best, but we really need a New World Order to sort these things out.
The population of UK, EU and North America would not be increasing if it was not for immigration, and as Troubles said Climate Change could make the problem worse.
The Pope could help, but most of our current problems caused by religions, one way or another.
BoL

Hi strictly
As my table below shows, you could have simply invested in bdev for a year and make 57.4%, add on divis then over 65%.
For companys in table av inc 44.9%. By moving a float between them (at best times) I still think I can make at least 20% more than that ie 65% + with Divis on top of that.
Next results are tw and psn PreFins, but not optimistic (cos of weather delaying completions and both still tackling quality problems). Got a little float in psn for divi and no float in tw.
Think both could drop after PreFins, then buying opportunity? More like Day trading (which is not what my system is about), but if weather has affected results it will affect all builders, and the rest will underperform as well, but 1st 2 will recover as this becomes apparent. Last to report, a decease in estimates will be expected. Main point is it doesn't affect fundamentals.

I see no reason for any decrease in Builders Sp growth this year, (basics remain the same, demand far > supply, low interest rates and mortgages readily available), and sooner or later the market will realise Builders are massively undervalued. This alone could double their Prices.
BoL

Hi SainVision
According to my system relative Sp 04/01/19 = 100 then RSp 27/12/19:
Bdev 157.4
Rdw 151.2
Bwy 145.0
Tw 138.6
Psn 132.1
All good returns, surprised SME's doing so badly.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Glad I don't live anywhere near Kiel Uni.
Why not 100% ? Cos existing appliances blow up if 100% used, so don't blow up if 20% used, or not so often?
Imho too little too late, so need more +ve action, dust or SO2 in atmosphere or whatever. What %age of research funds are going to proving Global Warming is happening as opposed to solving the crisis?

According to my system tw PreInts out on Thursday (based on last year + 365 days), if not probably next Thursday. Should produce some Sp movment (one way or another). Not optimistic cos of weather and quality issues.
BoL

Hi Bamps and Troubles

Tw and psn PreFins due very soon, which means the weather could have affected completions, decreasing EPS, Profits …
As results produced Sp's could fall because of this, but it is an act of God, (fundamentals remain the same) so will gradually recover.
This infers sell before results, and buy back on dip afterwards. Too much like Day trading for me.

No doubt now Climate change is happening, so why not fix it (SO2 released at high altitude, or whatever) rather than bleating on about Polar Bears, shrinking Glaciers … Talk about Terra Forming Mars and Venus - not much chance of that if we cannot even look after our own Planet.
When I was a kid we used to go sledging 2 or 3 times a year (usually for a week), now only 4 frosts on my car, and so far no snow at all. All of this was known by Scientists 60 years ago - in the 1960's, but Politicians took no notice of them, and did nothing - as usual.
The problem is that research funding is based on further proof, so it becomes undeniable (apart from to Trump and some other Politicians), rather than fixing the problem. But as Sir David Attenborough said, the worst problem is the population, which nobody seems to be even addressing.

Apologies for Rant and BoL

Hi Bishand
PreFins due very soon, possibly Thursday or next week. This usually creates a big price movement, so if you think they will be good, get in before else get in on dip after. Last Year IntRes not very good cos working on quality issues, but big rise on PreFins Last Year.
Still quality issues or big rise - don't know?
BoL

Hi Bamps
Big contract delayed. This is one of the reasons I avoid this type of Coy, big Builders don't get big contracts, just steady away.
Quite happy with that, but admit your little Coys much more exciting.
Haven't made a trade since 25/11/19 and am happy with my current situation. Float in bdev, rdw and psn, bdev and rdw for growth, psn for Divi.. Results coming soon, so will review then.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Seems to me like Samsung is trying to lead the Tech Race, so Nano Tech will be very useful to them (besides possible IP issues with Nano, and keeping Chinese out of Cadmium free QDots). I think a definite bidder.
Apple is not going to gift their investment away (even if peanuts to them) and the Tech remains important to them even if not commercial yet.
But Price will be driven by the Chinese (4 Coys and maybe Govt) to get hold of this Tech.
I think the market making Sp of 13.625 is incredibly low, and just proves yet again, the market is clueless (almost never correct!) Hence all our Tech Coys now owned by foreigners (Arm etc).
Hi bonzoful
It doesn't matter at all what the market thinks (cos totally clueless), but the real value of nano is what a Company will pay for them. Don't understand your % ages.
I remain optimistic.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Sp could drop but I don't think it will reach 186. As I said Politics has little affect on Builders.
I had a look at Pennant, raised a couple of questions to my mind. Why so small (Mrkt Cap £31m) after 60 years trading? Fundamentals look OK and good growth last year, but don't see it as a 10 bagger now, cos Sp roughly reflects accounts (Per about 9 - higher than builders but pretty low). Peg 0.1 excellent.
Surprised Chairman sold his shares on open market (flooding the market and lowering the price so making it a bargain) as opposed to a private sale to an II, but maybe they don't Deal with Aims.
I wish you the very best of luck with them, but not my cup of tea.
BoL

Hi Tom
Very happy you have done so well out of ggp (I'm finally in profit there now. 6.2%), and you are making money on tw volatility.
As you know I invest in 5 builders and study them in detail. On the latest change to system (5 year Rel Strength by Date) it highlights in particular rdw, FinRes about 01/09/20. Best idea is to get in about 4 weeks before and get out about 2 weeks after RNS.
Bit boring with tw now, as you say, but PreFin due soon (and psn, both Ye Dec) and also bdev PreInt (Ye Jun) and bwy (Ye Jul). Rdw don't do Pre anything or ManStats, so always a big move after FinRes, and last 4 years have shown a big increase in Sp then. Have a look at Sp movement between those dates for last 4 years.
Of course this does not mean it will happen this year and Chairman (Founder, X Ceo and biggest shareholder), Steve Morgan has left. My point is rather than trading on Sp movement (Day Trading), you can study Sp movement relative to RNS's to produce a plan, which I think can make at least 20% more profit than LTBH (not even including Divis - a big one from psn soon).
Hoping to do well out of nano sale, and think they are at a bargain Sp now. Can't buy any more cos got too many.
Cur Price 13.625 and reckon they could be worth anything from 10 to 200+. Downside not much, but upside 8* +, looks like a good gamble to me.
Hi Troubles
How do you Deal with a MadMan? Caution is needed and I think he would welcome a War and Iran knows that. Not the best way of doing things, but this could resolve simmering Issues that have continued for years.
Just read an article that SAS murder squad were in position to kill him when Ed Milliband was Foreign Secretary, who stopped it, about 13 years ago.
Or, another way of looking at it, how many people have been killed by EM decision.
Think we need a better system!
BoL

Lse might be in a bubble, rest of country isn't and Psn National Builder. Rate of increase of house prices has been steady (outside London) for last 10 years, and as long as supply doesn't exceed demand (another 10 years at least), will continue.
When you have > £1 Bn Cash in the Bank and 30% margin you don't really need a recovery.

Hi ddubya
Sounds like you think there will (or should be) no info until the Deal is done, and no updates on latest offers.
Suppose we will just have to be patient. At the moment a complete lack of interest from the market - just 4 trades today.
Opportunity to buy say £20k, to push the price up on such low volumes. Nobody wants to miss the Boat, but I suppose it is illegal.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Tw only about 1% down, so not a disaster. Now we have to consider what that madman will do next (on top of Brexit). Oil imports might be hit by Iranian action, but none of this should affect Builders, which should be regarded as a safe haven.
How much proof does the market need. that Brexit, Politics, Austerity... does not affect them?
Don't blame you for moving to cash, and just hope this doesn't escalate too much.
May we return to boring times.
BoL

Hi Tony
I study Builders in detail, cos they are all massively undervalued so about the only thing I invest in.
Disagree with some of the article you quote, the biggest builder by far MrktCap £8,454 Mn, then bdev £7,587 (but bdev might build more houses). Interesting comparison between those 2 cos after psn quality issues (and Brokensh*t) revealed, psn Sp plummeted (end of Feb 19), but has mainly recovered since. For some time bdev was the biggest Bldr but has lost ground to psn (low point 13/09/19) which has increased a lot since then - until the publication of the report they commissioned before We 20/12/19, resulting in another big drop in Sp)
bdev used to have a bad reputation for quality, but are now the best, while how long will it take for psn to recover their reputation (and how much will that eat into their Margin)?
Fundamentals for psn are excellent, but I see decreasing Margins, Profits, Eps... as they sort their Issues, while bdev has no Issues.
So I think bdev could be a better bet short term, psn great long term (cos they are making great efforts to sort the Issues).
Incidentally, I think the most undervalued are bwy and rdw.
BoL

Seems to me Samsung is in danger of infringing nano IP, and if anyone else (with loads of money) get hold of nano, could be bad news for Samsung, (so Plans on hold?) Samsung are going to invest $10 Bn in QD Prodn, which they must safeguard from IP issues. LG in similar position (knowing now that QD is the future?)
Then Apple wants IR sensors. Maybe a deal between Apple, Samsung and LG to keep Chinese out (some deal! in terms of resources - $1Bn, petty cash to all of them).
No idea what will happen, but remain optimistic - maybe Chinese will buy them at 20p, cos of lack of interest and the West thought IP no good anyway.
The problem for me is what to do if Sp exceeds my 35 average, Hold or Sell. My current thinking is if Sp reaches 70, I can sell half, decreasing cost of the other half to nil. Then no loss - but could have made a lot more?
All very secretive. as usual. and don't expect much news until the Deals done, which suits me quite nicely, cos I won't have to make that decision. Then Sp goes from 15 to 150, 500 or whatever!
Last point, after Chinese offer of 750 accepted by nano, Govt Bans the sail and Sp goes back down to 10. But maybe the second bid from Apple... accepted - after decreasing offer to 20 (on further studying due diligence).
Head says sell half at 70, Gut says Hold. Anyone got any Plans?
BoL to holders

Hi Taverham
Hope No Worries about fires where you are. Talk about cancelling NY fireworks in Sydney.
Basically EU Deal nothing is settled until all is settled (Orig idea) which probably will take more than a year. BoJo trying to change the rules, and if we revoked Article 50 no negotiations needed, which gave Anti Cons a massive advantage, but Corbyn didn't know what to do and JS ignored by the Media.
Anyway, I think No Deal very possible now, but Imho better than a Deal (from Bldrs Sp point of view).
So we are left with another year of speculation based on Brexit and very low prices cos BoJo has Not got Brexit sorted!
Still think best out of LSE.
BoL

exstatex
Like most of your ideas you are totally wrong about investing in Companies actually helps the company you invest in.
A Company raises Cash with an IPO, guaranteed by a Bank, then the Bank trades the original money to investors. From then onwards the Banks debt decreases to Nil as, PI's take over that debt, so PI's replace the Banks and hopefully make money out of the growth of the Coy and/or the Divis they pay. The Company could not care less who lent them the money, other than the Directors can Hire or Fire the Management of the Company, as with Psn.
More importantly, if the Banks could not do that, no emerging (private) companies, could raise cash to expand. So if Gordon Brown had not saved the Banks we would be in a situation of total stagnation (ie the Depression of 90 years ago, when the only way out was War!

There is another way, rather than giving the Banks £1 Tn?, he could have split it equally between all the people in the country. This would have stimulated the economy, cos most people would spend it, but you would probably still have to borrow money to buy a house, and it would destroy the system.
Basically, you are left with destroying Capitalism or War, and Govt just watched as the Housing industry was destroyed. Hence unable to produce enough Houses now, which will be the case for years. Govt never gave a penny to Builders and due to lack of Govt, created the problem to begin with.