Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
Formal announcement RNS 05/11/19, after being approached by 2 or more companies.
An American company is handling the sale, so suspect Nano can't say anything about the process.

Don't know if coronapanic is the reason for builders drop this week. Just shows how stupid the market is if that is the case. Influenza kills almost 1M people a year so coronavirus responsible for 0.1%, on the other side of the World.
BoL

Hi Tom
Nano up for sale and there could be a bidding war. Mrkt Cap 49M now, and IP probably worth a multiple of that. Suspected bidders Apple, Samsung, about 4 Chinese Coys… none of which are short of a penny or two.
BoL

Hi TMT
I apologise for that, always thought psn sold more expensive homes. So you are inferring a growing economy and higher margins on more expensive tw homes.
Still think it doesn't make much difference cos no change in supply / demand overall, and psn has a bigger margin than tw.
Of course my idea is get into both tw and bdev, and more in bdev cos IntRes due soon. Also rdw and bwy cos most undervalued (by Per).
From my post below you will see I have holdings in nano and ggp which I think are well worth looking at now.
BoL

Hi Tom
I am delighted with the performance of ggp, up 16.4% this week, and if my momentum idea is right they will start moving up again before the end of the week (after a bit of profit taking). Btw I can't be bovvered reading all the posts there - 27 today so far, so really appreciate your comments here on them.
Have you noticed nano, up 26.3% this week. I sent a message on that board explaining why I thought the sky's the limit there cos nobody selling and it also has momentum. Dyor etc, but I think a great opportunity.
No apologies for being off topic, cos a mutual interest.
BoL

Hi Tissue
Absolutely agree "Cutting Edge". Besides Display, IR sensors and lighting for growth which are almost there, Medical uses, 2D Materials (graphene...) probably a few years away, and now Quantum Computing (no doubt a few more years away).
Bit like a new Industrial revolution, but even if cutting edge the timescales are very important to companies.
Maybe not so much nowadays, when Tech wizards are running many big Orgs. I think IBM considered potential sales of computers were about 5 in the world (Boss had a degree in an Ology).
Or to put it another way, the IP nano holds is massively important and the Chinese, Samsung and some clever Tech bosses are well aware of that.
Hi Troubles
I averaged down to 35, I made a plan to sell some at 90 (reducing cost of rest to nil), but really think the sky is the limit, so will hold. Now strong momentum, over 26% up this week, and not many sellers left, so this could fly. Too many Chiefs are Ologists or Accountants now, but probably less than there was.
BoL

Hi TMT
"Basic economics -- if people have less money, they'll tend to buy more of the less expensive product. So if the market thinks people might have less money, they'll be happier to be invested in the providers of less expensive products."
I think this makes no difference to supply / demand. It could change the distribution of the buyers, so more new buyers buy by cheaper tw homes and more home owners buy psn homes.
Assuming you meant £240k tw home and £290k psn home.
Hi Troubles
Despite builders a great week for me cos of nano.
BoL

What the Sp was and what the Sp is, is totally meaningless to the sale price.
You have agreed that 2 or more companies are involved in this process, so there is a bidding war between them. The value of nano is which of these companies value them the highest.

Hi David
Do you have numbers to justify that? I don't think tw has been the biggest Builder by Market Cap since the BC (Banking Crisis).
Hi Roulette
An attempt at a slightly more sensible reply. I think the shareholders of the companys have different characteristics. Tw and bdev would react more to World news (such as coronavirus) which has no affect at all on British builders, and think psn is joining them. Bwy less affected and rdw has its own agenda (reacts about 2 weeks after the rest).
No idea why, just my opinion. It does produce opportunities cos tw and bdev more volatile while rdw delay means if others going up buy rdw cos it will follow (later).
Hi Tom
Ggp down a little today, but still think there is a good chance of a bounce on or before Friday, then hold til end of surge. Look for end of surge (I guess 3.3) before top slicing to nil cost. I'm holding.
BoL

Hi Roulette
Obviously tw homes more susceptible to coronavirus.
BoL

Hi TMT and Strictly
What a good conversation!

Strictly, I'm still too busy with my system to have a look at your set up. The major parameters I watch are Margin, Eps, Cash Held and Divis, and rates of change for each company and how they compare to each other. If something is going pear shaped I expect some -ve 's in the above. I don't understand PBV enough to comment, but if the former OK I'm quite happy to keep them in my basic 5 Builders. Really can't do with another financial crisis (and nothing we can do about it anyway) and an article on BBC said the 2% drop in builders Sp's was due to coronavirus (which makes no difference at all to UK Builders).
Most of my gains over Ltbh come from avoiding the slumps (cyclical, during May, Sep and Nov), which creates the 20% more than moving money around, so an easy one to adopt even if you only invest in 1 company.
Still prefer to look at my RelPrice / RelStrength Graphs cos they create questions which need answering. Not even started that yet, but some are obvious like date of Brexit vote.
I also hold shares in nano and ggp, so despite drop in builders of about 2%, I made 0.3% today cos nano up 9.0% and ggp 19.2%.

TMT, Yes I have been retired since 1999, but still only 66. Didn't get back into Builders until 2013 and have been watching them closely ever since. I don't watch much else cos Strictly and me agree Builders are the best value by miles.
One thing you must remember is the Sp movement of builders is fairly cyclical and first slump not due until May. Of course external events might intervene, but almost none can affect Builders value.
Think Strictly has been in Crst, but we all have our own ways - he rejects psn cos of 3.0 PBV, I reject crst cos LSE. I made good money out of bkgh a few years ago (Imho best of LSE) but got out cos LSE.
You still have time to get into bdev before IntRes (05/02/20), which I think will be excellent - maybe 5% inc on that day, but the other builders will probably inc by 2 1/2 % on the strength of the results, reinforcing my idea of avoiding cyclical slumps is more important than chasing great results.
The system I am working on I am going to send to Strictly, not very user friendly cos I wrote it for myself, and a knowledge of Excel and Visual Basic would be useful. If you send me your EMail (Nige_W@hotmail.com) I will send it to you also. I was a Cobol programmer and don't know much about VBasic, but almost working again after big changes.

BoL to you both and look forward to the future discussions.

At first I thought to sell now is madness but 52 week low 6.5 June 2019, so at 13.0 100% profit.
Maybe that is why Sp stuck at 13 for so long, as the chancers got out. Hopefully the rise today is due to no chancers left.
Nobody knows what the real value of nano is until a successful bid goes through, and its not a simple ??? matter of valuing the IP, copyright infringements, freezing out the Chinese, dominating Nano Tech and recouping previous investments will all play a part in the final offer, which could push the offer higher than the real value of the IP, but the true value is the offer price, whatever the market thinks.
So I remain optimistic, and if these ideas are correct, it should create one direction for Sp. Just hope we get a result soon before I'm tempted to sell some.
Best of luck to all long term inmates.

Thanks Johnson
Unfortunately I don't have a smart phone.
Got a tablet but still trying to figure out how to use it - just don't have the time.
Bit out of date.

Hi Tom
I live and learn. One thing for sure is to keep a cash float in Isa, so don't need to sell anything to buy. I'm with Hsbc and on Trade A/c I can go up to 50% credit, so not a problem there, but all my ggp in Isa.
Still think Aims are risky, even ggp, but doesn't matter at all if you top slice to nil cost.
If as I think a barrier at 3.00 (ie take profit if above 3.00) then if that is broken the Sp will start rising again (to next resistance level). This is Chartists territory, not my forte. If that is the case I would suggest you delay top slicing until end of 2nd surge. Sp has serious momentum so think 2nd surge possible, and Friday a good day for a review. If it has started to rise again, then hold.
BoL - not that you need it!

Hi Tom
I've missed the boat. Even if I phoned them the sell would still take 3 days to clear by which time the Sp probably has stabilised. Looks like it is stabilising at 3.00 now.
Anyway now 44.5% up on holding so very happy.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just tried to sign on to Bank and secure key card not working.
Replacement could take a week in Post then 3 days for sale to clear and ggp could be 100 by then!
Messed my plans up so Snafu. Anyway I keep on smiling.
BoL

Hi Tom
Can't keep up with this. just about to sell some more Isa Builders float, but takes 3 days to clear. Ggp going up faster than I can sell stuff to buy them!
You sure struck gold with this 1.
Even nano up 7.5% so despite builders losing about 2%, still up 0.2% for week.
BoL

Hi Strictly
As you know I invest in 5 Builders, all of which have great fundamentals. One must be the best, but because of my system it doesn't really matter which it is (besides spreading the risk).
I don't study the accounts in much detail, I compare critical numbers, but they are all pretty similar. Think my relative price and relative strength graphs are more useful. I also think going back in History is not very useful. Building now is completely different from what it was before Banking crisis, so anything before BC is meaningless. For instance Per before BC was around 13 which was not unreasonable given cyclical nature of building, but as I have said I think 25 is not unreasonable now.
One thing you didn't mention about psn is the quality issues, which is my main concern. Obviously new management is addressing that and it is costing them money, and will continue to do so? Even when fixed how long will it take for their reputation to recover (but maybe doesn't matter too much while demand so much gtr than supply).
Hoping to make 5% out of bdev IntRes but Sp kept on increasing until mid April (Sp 04/01/19 474, Sp 12/04/19 618), big slump started in late May and lasted until early July.
Don't know (nor care) if this was due to Brexit, but there usually is a slump in May or later so need to watch Sp's carefully, and get out when it happens. Even if you only invest in 1 Builder you can considerably improve your performance by avoiding these slumps (and usually 3 per year other two Sep and Nov).
All floats bought 25/11/19 and up 19.8% so very happy.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Not that Brexit has any affect on builders, but it has on their Sp's.
BoL

Hi TMT
Cannot believe we can have another financial crisis any time soon, you would have thought safeguards had been put in place after the last one.
Concrete bricks post from BenRumpson, probably easiest way to get to it is by looking up his profile / messages.
I'm sure you will get on fine with Strictly.
Did you look at my Plan? Just run a test system optimised for 2020 - still doing 20% better than Ltbh.
Strictly thinks too much guesswork. I think some decisions are quite obvious so I have 45% float in bdev prior to IntRes (05/02/20). Hoping for 5% inc there but could be wrong, even if I am it's not a disaster.
BoL

Hi Tom
If it reaches 2.59, I will be holding a nice little profit (25%). If the price goes down below 2.4 I can sell my 2nd purchase (bought at 2.321) at a small profit and still holding 1st purchase (bought at 1.801). If I was to buy at 2.5 I have less wiggle room if the price goes down, so holding for 2.59.
In theory, once you have made the 2nd purchase you cannot lose money, and if the price goes up you can just keep on buying (hopefully safely), but cos Aim I have an upper limit on the amount I will purchase.
Bit like Ice's ladder system.
Hope this makes sense, have a great W/e and BoL