Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
My profit up from 144% to 173% this week! Rapidly approaching max % in Isa (now 20%, max 25%), so not much point in buying any more in Isa. Then my plan is to get to a point where I can sell down to nil cost by selling no more than 25%. I will start a holding in Trade a/c asap.
I imagine you need to sell less than 25% holdings to nil Cost them, then Money for Nothing.
Can't go wrong - don't even think of selling any unless Sp goes down.

Bdev still going nicely, up 3.4% this week, then the others caught up towards end of day (due to momentum investors), for week rdw 2.5%, psn 2.4%, tw 1.4% and bwy 1.0%). Rdw and psn don't deserve that - led by bdev.
BoL

Hi Tom
Man or Mouse? Ggp Sp is just relentless - no real resistance points and it just sails on.
I cannot argue it is a good time to sell when I am about to buy more, but you can retire again on what you have made, so a different situation. Some time ago Troubles made the point that a buyer buys cos he thinks it is a good idea, and a seller sells cos he thinks it is a good idea. Can they both be right?
Anyway, I think a good idea for you is to decrease your holding (to nil Cost?) and invest some in nano and bdev, besides tw.
I think nano will sell for well more than double current Sp (about 20 ie 40 +) but could be a big multiple of that.
Cos I haven't been able to buy any more my profit is now 144%, (first bought 06/08/19 at 1.80, top up 21/01/20 at 2.32) so buying into Trade A/c and topping up Isa asap. Some return !
Do you want to be a multi millionaire or just a regular one? Don't blame you for going on a mission or two.
BoL and take no notice of my advice.

Hi Bamps
No!
In fact I think bdev more undervalued than tw and psn, possibly also bwy and rdw despite their lower Per's.
Unlike the others no quality issues and results solid.
According to my graphs the other companys Sp's have been catching up with bdev, which happens when the market is driven by sentiment rather than results. This convergence is followed by a divergence when the top performers (bdev and tw) do better than the rest.
So my plan now is to sell float in rdw (after poor results) and buy bdev and tw (and ggp in trade account), but sell all in May (apart from ggp).
Obviously I hope coronavirus doesn't get much worse, but there are 1 million deaths per year due to flu, so I think a overreaction by the media.
Hi Tom
You see I am quite happy to sell (rdw) even though just lost a little money there (but Float still 15% up). Sometimes its better to cut losses, cos that money can be used better elsewhere.
BoL

Hi Tom
Great plan and in your position I think I would do the same. I suggest you use the cash to get into bdev as well as tw, cos they have been outperforming all other builders for over a year now.
Relative Prices when 04/01/19 = 100
Psn 152, Bwy 154, Rdw 154, Tw 156, Bdev 169
Over the week bwy + 1.6, tw + 1.4, bdev - 1.0, psn - 1.1, rdw - 5.6.
Anyway, I see no reason for the temporary lull in builders Sp's, other than profit taking (Sp's up an average of almost 30% since 06/12/19). I expect the normal slump mid May (10% or more), and will sell all my float before that, before getting back in mid June.
Still think nano a bargain at 20!
BoL

Hi Troubles
I am sure your prices are correct. By yesterday I meant Wednesday, when bdev up and rdw down on day of results.
Now ggp at 4.475 I'm up 116.6%. I would have bought some more (if I could have) but then it would have increased my av, and if I had done the value would be approaching my Max for Isa. If it goes on like this its going to reach Max anyway.
Then top slice down to nil cost share.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Basically bdev results good, rdw poor, so don't think that is affecting anything. Yesterday bdev up 4.3%, rdw down a little. Sp movement for week:
bwy +1.9%, tw +0.9%, bdev no change, psn - 0.4%, rdw - 2.3%.
Bwy PreInt due later today which could explain there inc.
Don't know why tw did so well or why bdev behind tw. Market vagaries or, as I suspect they haven't got a clue.

Agree with you about ggp, maybe a bit of profit taking today, and hopefully same applies to nano.
BoL

Thanks autobits
From my graphs Historically Sp slumps in May, then Sep, Oct and Nov, but this year Sp going great!
Or from Relative Price Graph when 04/01/19 = 100
01/02/19 Sp 115.6 effectively today, followed by:
12/04/19 Sp 130.4, 21/06/19 118.6, 26/07/19 139.7, 29/11/17 140.7, 13/12/19 161.4, 31/01/20 169.6.
Bdev has performed better than any of my other builders over this period and expect this will continue.
To maximise profits it is important to avoid the slumps, particularly the first (starting Mid May) and smaller ones in Sep, Oct Nov. I expect the Sp graph will continue much like last year, so need to spot the slumps (or anticipate them).
Of course these dates will vary this year, and I don't really want to be out when the Sp flying but remain very optimistic for bdev (and holding almost half float there until May). Dates of slumps might be affected by Brexit / Politics, looks like BoJo got in We 13/12/19 from graph (don't know nor care!)
But 06/12/19 bdev 140.7, now 169.6 (not even including 4.4% inc this week) = 28.9 increase. This is either due to BoJo (or lack of Corbyn) or the market is revaluing builders. Hope it is the latter cos the skies the limit!
Rdw results disappointing and will sell my float there.
BoL

Ps
Nano still going great - up from 18 to 20 today until big late sell, ended up at 18.2. You could move some ggp to nano, cos I think sale price will be many times that.

Hi Tom
Working late again.
Think 4.0 quite achievable before Friday. Then I suggest you stick to your plan and sell some to create zero cost. You have such a margin there that you will be selling much less than half, and the rest for free!
It all depends on your point of view - Aim is risky, ggp accounts not great (though great potential), but could go pear shaped - by overspending, overconfidence. The money is there for you to pick up now.
I don't see any problems (Short term) and of course you won't make as much as you would have if you sell and the price keeps on going up, but what is better - you can sell some and make a great profit and still hold a bunch (at nil cost), or you could hold and things could go wrong.
Man or Mouse, we are both retired and I'm turning into a mouse - too old to do Who Dares Wins.
Congrats again, but maybe prudence best now, and again very best of luck - not that you need it.

Should be published tomorrow. Expect bdev will be good and tw to increase 1/2 % age of bdev inc (assuming bdev up).
Nano up to 20 today before big sell sent it down to 18.2 Hoping to get that back tomorrow.
BoL

All a bit pedantic, and does it really matter? At the end of the day, an offer will be made (or not), which will be accepted by nano, so recommending it to share holders (or not), but it really doesn't affect the price at all, particularly cos nano has employed a US company to handle it. No need to accept highest offer on a particular date, cos competitors can increase their offers, so a bidding War.
Probably no info from anywhere until the Deal is more or less done, which infers it could last some time.
Patience needed!

Hi Troubles
All my 5 Builders up today, and nano and ggp, so very happy - long may it continue !
BoL

Hi Tom
That is a contingency plan, didn't mean I expected it would drop that far.
Surprised how volatile the Sp is.
BoL

Hi RogueR
I invest mainly in House builders (outside LSE), which are enough to keep me going, I like to have a little gamble every now and then (with ggp and nano). Nano a disaster but I think it will be sold for a multiple of Cur Sp 17, my av 35 but still think I will make money there.
Friday price movement of ggp was a bit worrying (I think about -7%), but still up 23% up on week. Last I bought was at 2.32 (plan to sell all if it goas down to 2.5), av price 2.1 so still a little profit there. Still 57.3% up there now.
Don't see how coronavirus nor H5N1 can affect ggp value.
Hi Tom
How's sell off going? Nil cost company gotta be best. Anyway, still think you should diversify into psn, bdev, bwy and rdw.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Assuming tw is more volatile than the others, it does mean that there are more (Day) trading possibilities.
Both bdev and rdw IntRes out next week, so maybe there Sp's didn't dec by so much as they would have (then maybe more in line with bwy). So -2.6% compared to - 3.2%, doesn't leave much margin!
This leaves a mystery, why was psn up 0.4%?
As I think I said, my relative price graph is converging (driven by a change in sentiment). When the market momentum normalises the best performers (bdev and rdw) will probably inc by more than the others as the graph becomes divergent again. Also I think psn has caught up more than it deserves to, given quality issues.

As TMT said maybe a good time to move from psn to tw. So, move psn to tw, bdev or rdw. I would wait until results of bdev and rdw IntRes before making a decision. Suspect bdev results will be V Good, so 44.5% float there, 31.8% rdw and 23.7% psn (mainly for Divi, 08/03/20, 125).
I'm up about 19% on all 3 Floats (bought 25/11/19), but probably would be whichever builders I bought then.

People used to say if the US economy catches a cold the rest of the World gets flu. I appreciate your point in relating this to China, but in short term it means we cannot import so much from them. Probably not a bad thing.

Think nano messages are becoming more +ve, which could lead to a surge next week (after a bit of profit taking) and hopefully the same applies to ggp. HSBC has got my new card on the way so hopefully I can start trading again soon, but barring surprises, I don't intend to make any trades until May.

BoL

Hi Nano
2 or more offers made before the company was up for sale. I think it is not unreasonable to assume more than 2 now, (so a bidding war).
Only downside, what Tech issues are around that have prevented them from selling more?
Don't know if that matters too much IF they can be overcome.
BoL

Hi Graham
Original text from this thread from Roulette.
"Anyone have a view why TW drops more %wise than, for example Persimmon, when the market gets jittery?"
This week
Psn +0.4%, bdev - 0.7%, rdw -1.0%, bwy - 2.6% and tw -3.2%.
So tw slightly better than Ftse, but worse than my other builders.
Roulette has a good point, how cronapanic can affect builders is beyond me.
BoL

Hi TMT
I agree with your idea of leaving takeovers alone. I'm stuck there with an av of 35, but remain optimistic. The IP is so important, I think Govt should stop the sale - then Sp will probably go down to 5 or something, but doubt they will do anything.
BoL

Hi BtB
Just by browsing the last few messages here, you can see the potential is far far more than Display and IR sensors, and cluey people are very well aware of it. Samsung have put their development of new QDot factories on hold for now (10's of Billions of £ Investment). They say it is cos they don't have the personnel to run the systems, but I guess they can't make any decisions until they get a result on their offer.
If that is the case then I think that $200m (= about £154m = 50 per share) is still remarkably pessimistic. The likes of BBD just seem to have no knowledge of the potential.
But equally important to Apple and Chinese. I suspect a joint offer from Samsung and Apple, but they will have to outbid the Chinese. So hoping for a multiple of 50p per share.
BoL

Ps
From Title "Why" tw worst affected -3.6%, then bwy -2.3%, bdev and rdw - 1.5% and psn - 1.0% for week. Maybe tw investor dafter than the rest?