Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Conno
I am hoping for >800 after PreInts, which are due this week or next.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Easy to say fluctuations don't matter if +ve trend. It's just I keep seeing opportunities (sudden slumps...) which are hard to ignore.
For instance sudden surge in bwy this week followed by 1.35% loss today - could be an opportunity now?
And what I consider a Banker rdw. Sp movement is always delayed compared to other Builders. My other 3 builders (excl bwy) up about 5.1% yet rdw only up 0.7%. I am sure they will catch up, but too much like day trading for me.
Anyway, bdev PreInts due soon, which I think will be good. Nice to see tw got their 5 star rating back, but bdev has had a 5 star rating for 10 years or more, so no issues to address. Of course I could be totally wrong about bdev but hoping for another 5% there.
Psn PreFins not great, but sorting out problems (up about 1% today).
What do you think of my idea of selling half before FinRes? (For all 3 and rdw IntRes, about end Feb). I'll have to study my graphs in detail before making any decisions.
Sell rest before usual slump after Results some time from March to May, so need to watch carefully then, before buying back bwy. psn and bdev or tw in early June. That's what my system tells me anyway.
BoL

Hi RogueR
Sooner or later the market will realise they have got builders all wrong. They marked Sp of builders down by about 50% after Brexit vote, but there was no affect on builders. Before that we had austerity, again no affect on Builders.
Pre Brexit Per was 13.2, so if we return to that the Sp would be about 285. Imho (given profit, margin, cash held, growth and Divis) Per should be at least double that, resulting in double Sp = 570.
Market not even close to valuing Builders, in fact out by a factor of almost 3, but as I said to Johnson, they will remain undervalued for years. That is why I invest in them, can't go bust, safe as houses and great prospects. Why look anywhere else?
Still think there will be fluctuations in Sp (due to Politics - which yet again doesn't affect Builders), but the trend will remain +ve. My only issue at the moment is whether to hold some float as cash, so I can take advantage of the fluctuations.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Don't expect that to be realised any time soon, based on a Per of 26.4 which I think is justifiable. Same applies to all other Builders.
BoL

Hi Troubles
First of all I have no float in tw, so nothing to sell anyway. Put off by the poor IntRes (quality problems) which I thought might still be affecting them.
I think it was last year tw had excellent PreFins, Sp soared and dropped on FinRes (cos they mentioned the possibility of increase in cost of imported materials).
There is little doubt FinRes will reflect IntRes, and by that time the market will have decided on a fair? price for tw, (my calcs 570), so not much upside. So, if I had a float in tw I would sell half (or possibly all) before FinRes.
44% float in bdev now (PreInts due this week or next), 25% psn (PreFins this week I think), 31% in rdw (cos I think they are the best value).
Besides tw up 5/6% this week, bdev and psn both up 3.2%, while bwy up 3.9% ??? and rdw up 0.9%. Rdw always least affected by momentum, good bet now cos they will probably catch up soon.
No float in cash (which could be a mistake cos of volatility).
BoL

Hi Fred
Almost definite there are minimum of 5 Bidders, Apple, Samsun and at least 3 Chinese Coys, not including the likes of SoftBank (who bought Arm).
I'm glad no info leaked driving Sp up, cos not tempted to sell any. Just hope it doesn't take too long to be settled.
Talk of av premium on sale is meaningless. The price depends entirely on what the bidders value the IP at. One problem here is that there are so many apps (Samsung display, Apple IR sensors...). so what does Samsung do with IR sensors?
Unfortunately, this could delay the process, and/or lead to the breakup of nano.
Still surprised so few speculators have moved in. I don't think the price is being kept artificially low, cos volumes are so low, and in whose interest is it to keep the price down?
BoL

Congratulations Tom
No harm in taking a profit. Interesting to note all other builders (except rdw) up on the back of tw fine results and that both psn and bdev will be reporting soon, which if, good could further boost tw Sp.
Hi Troubles
This explains my idea of holding now and (possibly) selling before FinRes. Interesting to see the difference, but of course Iran could seize a tanker or something, driving Sp down to 180's.
BoL

Hi wellwell
Absolutely correct. No point in selling less than 20 and agree with PaulP, absolute minimum 100.
Of course the market is always wrong, as proved by the Tech stock bust 20 years ago.
Some Tech Stocks were massively overvalued, but as usual the market overreacted by marking them all down, resulting in foreign competition buying all the good ones.
Does the market learn anything? Unfortunately not cos one of the best (Arm Holdings) was bought not long ago.
I invest mainly in House Builders (cos best value by miles - lowest Per's). Just look at fundamentals of psn. bdev, tw, bwy and rdw, and their prospects are excellent. According to my calcs they are undervalued by a factor of almost 3.
Market totally wrong there as well.

All depends on the value of the IP to potential buyers (if that is worthless then maybe no bids - but I think we are well beyond that stage. Imho the sale price will be 100 +, how much more I have no idea but could be a multiple of that.
As PaulP said:
"The industry is growing 30% CAGR with expected 8 billion revenues in 3 years time." Not only that since the Tech is ground breaking, CAGR will probably remain or increase beyond 3 years. Who doesn't want a part of that?
I must be a mouse, cos should sell the house and invest it all in nano, but don't have to take those sort of chances now.
Just have to wait and see, but who can the sellers be at 13p?
BoL

Hi TMT
One big difference between PreFin and FinRes is that PreFin basically states the accounts for the period, while FinRes also includes an outlook statement.
Good PreFins will produce a surge, while the outlook statement might spoil them even if in line with PreFins.
A good example of that is some time ago Tw produced good PreFins, FinRes in line, but the Sp went down after FinRes. This was because Tw stated that Costs might increase for imported materials if we leave the EU.
Imported Materials just a tiny fraction of total costs, so makes very little difference, and the same for all other Builders anyway. Even so the market went into a Blind panic as usual and Sp dropped.
So, generally my idea is to get in before PreFins (if I think they will be good) and get out before FinRes.
Importantly, this is not always the case. Sp of Rdw has its own agenda - No PreFins nor PreInts, so Sp usually surges after FinRes (and to a lesser extent IntRes), but then a big (relative) decrease again just 2 or 3 weeks after, so good idea to get out of rdw just after FinRes produced.
BoL

Hi Troubles
As you say the opposite is also true, but not a disaster cos I never invest more than 50% float in 1 company (= 10% total Port). If I am wrong I just sell (not waiting for a recovery). I'm right more often than wrong. Not Rocket Science - you were right about 200 today (who knows if due to US China Trade, or the General).
BoL

Ps
All could be messed up by the weather, as Ben said (wages down 25% on last year cos of wet time), but I think any Sp slump will only be temporary. Same for all builders and fundamentals remain the same.

Hi Troubles
Just posted this on Psn in reply to Ilike
"Two very different Companies, bkgh based LSE, psn National. Bkgh anticipated 30% dec in Eps cos LSE suffering at the moment. Psn recovering from Quality issues and -ve publicity (Directors bonus but History now). There is no doubt there will be a cost to addressing Quality issues, but probably won't effect Eps much.
Exciting week coming, the big 3 all reporting Psn and Tw PreFins and Bdev PreInts. Tw also addressing Quality issues (leading to poor Interims last year), so hoping Bdev results will be best.
So most of my float in Bdev, some in Psn for Divi and rest in Rdw (cos looks the best value)."

This is the basis of my system - get in before the RNS (if you think it will be good) and, if good the price will probably keep on increasing until the Results (Fin or Int). This way I am not looking to make 5%, but basically have a Buy Date and a Review (or Sell) Date, and I make money depending on the difference.
I think the muted reaction to the Iranian Generals death will be regarded positively by the market, so 200 very possible on Monday, (not that it matters to Builders). Next week they might slump, as a US embassy is bombed (or whatever).

Hi Johnson
Tw sp did surge this time last year, but all builders did, so doesn't mean much. Not sure why - don't think anything much happening on Brexit front then, but a big bank (Merril Lynch Bank of America) put in a major recommendation for Builders. Don't think a brokers forecast could make such a difference to Sp, so remains a mystery.
BoL

Hi ilike
Two very different Companies, bkgh based LSE, psn National. Bkgh anticipated 30% dec in Eps cos LSE suffering at the moment. Psn recovering from Quality issues and -ve publicity (Directors bonus but History now). There is no doubt there will be a cost to addressing Quality issues, but probably won't effect Eps much.
Exciting week coming, the big 3 all reporting Psn and Tw PreFins and Bdev PreInts. Tw also addressing Quality issues (leading to poor Interims last year), so hoping Bdev results will be best.
So most of my float in Bdev, some in Psn for Divi and rest in Rdw (cos looks the best value).
BoL

Hi exiled
If that is the case I expect a surge in tw Sp, so hope they are right.
BoL

Hi jplay
That's a bit like chicken and egg, how independent are the decision makers and how much are they influenced by the lobbyists. Since it is EU I think (hope) lobbyists will have no influence other than delaying a decision. Certainly a decision should be made soon and the delay will have to be explained.
Worst possible case EU extends its exemption but the Chinese (as you said) have already banned Cadmium, so doesn't really suit them, then who does it suit?
Hopefully no more than a Bureaucracy delay, as decision cleared by all Departments...
EU will make up their mind long before a sale is made, but I don't think their ruling will make much difference to the sale price anyway. BoL

Hi Troubles
Sp 31/12/15 197, Eps 14.9, sp today 197.65 Eps about 23.4 ie Sp about the same as EPS increased by about 50%.
This is entirely due to Politics / Brexit, which has had no impact on builders performance at all.
Or to put it another, if Brexit had not happened Sp now would be 285, and would be undervalued at that, cos of the markets misconceptions about Builders. Per at 285 about the same as Per 31/12/15 = 13.2. Quite easy to justify double that Per (to 26.4) which infers a Sp of 570. So any Sp below 570 means tw undervalued.
How long does it take the market to figure it was wrong? Obviously more than 5 Years, so not expecting 570 any time soon.

Your investment Plan looks like a good idea, but I expect a gradual realisation by the market that Builders are ridiculously undervalued, resulting in a steady (if jumpy) increase in Sp and sub 200 will be a thing of the past. Of course you can adjust your numbers 200 and 210, 210 and 220... (but not much of a margin!)
BoL

Hi Graham
Not hopeful cos of last years Interims (Quality) and weather (delaying completions), and same applies to psn.
Could produce a buying opportunity depending on how much Sp dips, or maybe I'm wrong and Sp surges.
BoL

Hi James
I see no reason why Builders results should not equal last years results. Per's have increased a bit from Jan to Dec, but hoping they will increase a bit more by next Dec. Of Course cannot maintain 45% inc in Sp when Eps growth is only about 10%, but since I consider Builders are worth about double their current MrktCap, still a long was to go.

I congratulate Strictly on his excellent system and would like to join the Blog as soon as I have sorted my system.
I wish you all the very best for 2020 and Strictly and all on his Blog.

Hi TMT
Instructive to look up profile of person sending the message. Driftking invests in all sorts of big companies and probably knows little about any of them. Obviously didn't bother to look up fundamentals of psn, and regurgitates all the old misconceptions about Buillders.
Having a good chat on bwy at the moment.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Trainees in Building were always paid rubbish in those days. I took a huge wage cut when I started as a Trainee QS.
BTW Think it was more like £16 on Boilers, following year £38 as General Labourer at BSC.
BoL