Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom, Troubles
Shirlley this applies to all builders. According to my system bdev up 0.6%, tw 4.1%, while according to Lse bdev up 2.13%, tw 5.36%. Could be due to rounding errors. (I don' include decimal places for them).
But
Did you notice ggp up 10% today, Open at 10, close at 11 so 10% Inc.
But according to my system close of Fri was 9.32, as Lse says on 3 month chart = 18% inc. or how can the Sp increase when nothing traded? I see no reason why Mon open price should not = Fri close price.
Usually doesn't matter, but in the case above my real profit was almost double the increase they stated.
BoL

Hi Cdl1
Probably get into trouble for this post But
How many lives have been saved by lockdown compared to the misery and deaths it has created. The point is the damage has already been done - a recession is almost bound to follow, creating more trouble (besides Brexit).
About the only thing lockdown achieved was preventing the total collapse of the NHS, but that is entirely due to lack of Govt funding. How much did the Nightingale hospitals cost and how many people treated in them?
We have a shortage of Doctors, Nurses and Hospital Beds (always have since NHS introduced), but Wards in Hospitals are closed cos of the shortage.
Future Sociologists will have great fun working this out.
Sorry for my negativity and BoL

When nano had a partnership with Apple (until 21/06/19) the Sp ranged from about 36 to 50 then decreased to about 10. STM would not have formed an agreement with Nano unless they had a contract with Apple. To put it another way, we are now in the same situation (apart from Sp) as we were before 21/06/19. No need for a partnership with Apple, cos we supply STM who have a contract with Apple.
So I am hoping for a steady inc in Sp towards 50+, in short term and some sort of offer / settlement with Samsung before end of June, besides any new contracts. Probably won't happen cos II's been stung so many times they won't go near nano anymore.
Always had massive potential which could be realised soon.
FSP was a waste of time when nobody knew if Samsung was using (directly or indirectly - doesn't matter) nano IP. That has to be sorted before you could make a sensible bid.
If Samsung was to buy nano does that have to go to an EGM for share holders to accept / reject the offer? Don't remember it happening with Arm.
BoL all

Hi Ilike
Short term Sp movement not very relevant to most of us here, mostly long termers but me and Tom out for now. We think early next year or next summer is the time to return. Sp might improve until Autumn, but I suggest that is the time to get out (cos of Brexit and Recession). If you can get your timing right the volatility could make you a lot of money, but easier said than done.
BoL

Hi Cdl1
Don't want to sound too depressing but Recession and Brexit could have a serious affect on Sp. Think sub 100 possible (either late this year or early next). Could be wrong again, cos already built into Sp's, or Autumn results better than expected (which will prove to me yet again that Recession, Brexit don't matter much to Builders).
Usually HB's Sp increase a lot in the New Year, but impossible to anticipate now. Need to avoid a Dead Cat's bounce, ie Don't get back in too early. Think Tom could be right (early next year), while I said next summer. Don't really think Divis matter and best to avoid them (in calcs of Buy/Sell dates). I have not really Calcd it properly but I think I have lost more by holding for Divis (in Sp XDivi decrease) than the Divis were worth.
Just some things to bear in mind and BoL

Hi Tom
Only have about 25% of original HB's now and don't hold any tw.
Sill have some ncyt, but tempted to sell some in Trade A/c (av 332, cur 320), but Isa OK (av 282). Ggp almost 50% Port now, but as you say that is the one I am confident about.
Given Recession, Brexit and -ve Bond interest rates, Economic disaster is not far away, so ggp is an excellent hedge - Gold goes up in price in an Economic disaster, and they are sat on loads.
I monitor HB's Sp movement closely, looking for a point to reinvest so calc
Relative Price = (Cur Sp - 1St Sp)/ 1St Sp * 100, and
Relative Strength = Cur Sp - Av Sp + 100. Forms a nice Graph and easy to recreate.
I posted this on psn board and have updated it to 22/05/20.
Given Relative price 100 on 03/01/20, then High, Low, Now, (Pre CV - 21/02/12, Low CV - 03/04 20, now - 22/05/20).
psn 122.2, 60.4, 80.6
tw 119.0, 52.3, 72.3
bdev 115.7, 51.5, 66.1
bwy 112.5, 49.9, 64.0
rdw 112.2, 41.2, 60.7
So at Low Point HB's lost almost 1/2 their Value. Now hey are improving but I don't think this will continue, cos of effects of Recession and Brexit.
A better comparison is Relative Strength, shows the affect of CV on Sp, then if 03/01/20 = 100
psn 106.1, 109.3, 111.9 - least affected
tw 102.9, 101.2, 103.6
bdev 101.6, 101.8, 97.3
bwy 96.4, 98.8, 95.2
rdw 95.1, 90.2, 92.0 - most affected
Don't know why bdev so far behind tw, nor why rdw so far behind everything else.

Or to put it another way, I think bdev and rdw are best value now, invest until just before Recession and/or Brexit, sell all and Buy Back at next low. Great for Day Traders, but not my way. I don't think I will be investing again til next Summer (by which time I should be out of nano, ncyt and possibly ggp.
Last idea Tom, if ggp a banker as I believe, why not sell the house, M4... and put all funds into ggp. Certainly increases profits, but I think you are a bit like me and prefer caution. Today I advised my brother to buy nano (massive potential return and almost no downside), and ggp (50% in each). Even if nano goes pear shaped ggp could pay for it.
BoL

Hi anon
Rdw now 461, don't know how low they will go say 400, before a recovery. Then my idea is to sell now and buy back at 400 = X no more shares, + a big loss to set against CGT. Nothing wrong with making a loss and (almost) never too late to get out.
I have sold off 75% of my old Port in HB's (far too late, so big losses), but got into ggp and ncyt which have done very well for me. Much better to get out of shares doing badly, than top slicing shares doing well.
All remaining shares in Builders in profit cos initial Buys - only 4 left (cos no tw), but bdev +40% (av 352 now 493), bwy + +71.6% (1423, 2443), psn +43.3% (1522, 2165) and rdw +19.4% (386, 461).
I intend to sell any/all of them if it looks like they could be going into a loss position for me.
Top slicing only makes sense when you become worried a Company share is making up too much of your Port, which is becoming the case for me now with ggp, almost 50% of Port, (but even after many top ups, 69% up now).
My simple idea is reward success (buy) and get out of failure (sell).
BoL

The Court Case is being heard in East Texas - not South Korea, so will not take long to settle.
Some time ago people were talking about fast tracking and quick settlements in East Texas.
Personally I think Samsung will settle with Nano before 2nd June with a big Contract and damages (but more probable they will buy nano).

Hi LEVIS
Two monsters are lurking, Recession and Brexit. That is why I have decreased my holding in Builders by about 75%.
Not only that a third monster, LSE House Prices, as London Service Sector decimated by the above, Boris moving Govt Services to the Shires and people working from Home, who want to continue working from Home, and then it doesn't matter too much where Home is.
I have avoided LSE Builders for about 5 years (did very nicely out of bkg), but vty have seen the writing on the wall and planning accordingly (see Ben1 message below).
They used to say House prices would reflect what is happening in London, delayed by a year or two. Now I think London prices will slump, as the Shires increase.
Can your eldest work from Home?
No criticism and BoL

Assuming Samsung settles with Nano for £500 m, + new contract for all CFQD's they need, that is great for Nano.
Then US settled, but not China, Japan, EU, UK, SA, Aus, NZ... Can't remember the wording ME used, but I'm sure it inferred these cases would follow.
This is why I think Samsung must buy Nano, which has to be for a much greater price than US settlement. Think I said £2 Bn previously. Much tidier, then 740 per share which Samsung will pay in cash (as opposed to having to wait for Sp to catch up with settlement price - 185 @ £ 500 m).
One can but Dream!
Anyway, we should find out soon.

Hi anon3
Still don't think we have hit the low point yet, recession on the way and noticeable that Merkel and Macron are planning to minimise this. Wouldn't it be good if they were also talking to us?
Virus news showing signs of improvement, but still got to hit the recession, and finalise Brexit.
BoL

Hi BtB
Increased share Trade and a slow increase in Price Possible new contract(s) and need a reply from Samsung by 2nd June. I cannot believe they can let this go to court so I expect an out of Court settlement very soon. Speculation on the settlement is meaningless, but I guess £ 500m minimum (which converts into Sp =185 per share).
If it goes to Court and Samsung have made 26 m Tv's using nano CFQD @ $1,000 profit per tv = $ 26 Bn and 3 * damages = $78 Bn, + Rest of World cases. Then there is wilful distribution of Patented IP, 2nd case. Samsung is big but not that big.
Samsung simply cannot risk this so will settle out of Court, or buy nano (their best option Imho).
Whatever, as you say I will believe when I see it, but might buy some more tomorrow.
BoL

Hi Owls
Totally agree with your idea of not good to have more than 50% in 1 Company, particularly an Aim.
That is the situation that has developed for me, by topping up when they have done well. 40 % up on Trade Ac and 203 % up on ISA. Total 73 % up. Obviously the % age of Port has increased in the mean time cos they have outperformed everything else.
According to my ideas I ought to sell some ncyt, but will be patient there, cos I think they will go back up (I think reason for decline is just momentum traders leaving).
In the long term I think you can't go wrong with psn and tw, but I think all Bldrs could drop lower in short term. Still think bdev better value and best value rdw. Also I think bwy very good value. I have made more profit out of bwy than any other Bldrs.
BoL

Hi Owls
Got stuck in nano, didn't have time to bail out, but could recover with the Court case. No sentiment involved, great products and CFQD's the future, but I had too much money there.
After selling off 1 third of my Builders today my system says 53.5 % Port in ggp, but this doesn't take into account cash held, but it is at 72.8 % profit. Very tempted to top up ISA with some more GGP (av price 3.0 now 9.05 = 203 % profit). Everything about ggp looks good to me, can't believe a disaster will happen there - just don't like having more than 50% in 1 company.
Hi LancsI
Ggp still going along nicely, and I am hoping recent drop in ncyt only temporary (momentum investors getting out).
Still think rdw the best value and bdev better value than tw, but as you infer + side for ggp far > than any builders.
Hope you all keep well and have a great weekend.

Hi Tom
Done it now. Losing money on Trade ncyt, but holding that for now. I hope that after euphoria of Who approval this is no more than an adjustment and new orders will start coming in soon.
Got a bit of credit in Trade A/c (don't owe HSBC) and a fair bit in ISA.
Sometimes best to cut your losses by selling at a loss (particularly if recession on the way).
BoL

Hi Tom and Bamps
I am not selling out of builders completely - just from ISA and tw trade A/c, and still hold bdev, bwy, psn and rdw in Trade A/c. The value I am selling is less than a third of total builders holdings, which will all be if profit cos original purchases (from 2013 onwards).
In retrospect should have done this ages ago when CV first hit, but since I think things could get worse, better late than never.
BoL

Hi Tom
Looks like you got your timing spot on again.
Since it seems we are going to be hit by a deep (but short) recession, I have decided to sell all my shares making a loss, this includes all builders in ISA, tw in Trade and some ncyt in Trade. I intend to hold most of that in cash now, but might buy some more ggp and nano (great potential recovery stock) and maybe a small amount of cerp.
At least I won't have to worry about CGT for a while.
Hi Owls
Just had a look at pog, but I wouldn't touch any Russian company even if their performance has been very good.
As Tom says the only company I feel confident about is ggp.
BoL

Hi Troubles
I assume this means the Summons has now been served, ie last stage before court case invoked (depending on their timetable). I expected an announcement from nano when this was done (12th May), but no RNS, nor any message on their site, and only 12 trades yesterday.
Maybe Sp will fly tomorrow (but somehow I doubt it).
BoL

Hi Owls
Payroll is about the simplest thing to automate, but you still need a department to enter the Data, (unless you subcontract everything out, which is probably cheaper). Don't think I ever worked on payroll in IT (from 1982 until 2000), cos all done.
BoL

Hi all
The reason why I say rdw and bdev best value now is cos of current Relative Sp.
Given RSP = 100 on 04/01/19, and CV started to affect Sp 21/02/20 and Cur RSP 08/05/20 then:
Rdw, 100.0, 88.3 = - 11.7 %
Bdev, 113.2, 105.8 = - 7.4 %
Bwy, 95.2, 96.1 = + 0.9 %
Tw, 96.9, 102.3 = + 5.4 %
Psn, 94.8, 107.5 = + 12.7 %
Psn richest of the five, (which explains why the market has made them favourites cos of CV), but it hardly matters cos none have financial issues. Rdw solid and have increased loan facility to far more than they will ever need, but Sp down almost 25 % compared to Psn. No reason for this.
Also Bdev - 7.4 % while Tw + 5.4 %. Almost 13 % difference, despite the fact Bdev has more Cash.

Another case for Bdev, Building quality issues, which hit Psn worst, and Tw but not Bdev. This made Bdev Sp fly (max Dif 30/08/19), so RSP on that date:
Bdev, 122.7
Bwy, 100.2, so - 22.5 % to Bdev
Rdw, 99.3. so - 23.4 % to Bdev
Tw, 93.8, so - 28.9 % to Bdev
Psn, 83.9, so - 38.8 % to Bdev.
The lead for Bdev has been totally eroded as Sp's squashed back together again cos of yet another disaster.
The question here is have all the other Companies overcome all the quality issues, whilst also not decreasing margins. Bdev margin will remain at about 20% cos they don't have to do anything. If the others decrease margin, Bdev looks a better bet, (let alone Cash).
Of course CV could change all predictions (like 20% margin), so all I am talking about is a comparison of Builders.

Anyway, I'm not reinvesting yet, from BofE statement it might be a good idea to wait until next year.
BoL