Member Info for Nige_W

Just posted this on bwy:
"Just noticed psn Sp 2629 has overtaken bwy 2619. Either psn doing very well or bwy doing badly. Or psn overvalued or bwy undervalued, or some sort of combination of the above. Psn Per 9.8, bwy 6.0 makes me think psn overvalued."
I have often compared psn to bdev and said that I think bdev better value, think the same applies to bwy, tw and rdw
Critical point, psn has a far higher Per than the others while there is no guarantee they have overcome their quality issues yet. I still hold a few shares in bdev and bwy, cos I think they are the best value. In fact I sold out of the rest cos heading towards losses and kept bwy and bdev cos held them the longest.
BoL

Hi jake
Just noticed psn Sp 2629 has overtaken bwy 2619. Either psn doing very well or bwy doing badly. Or psn overvalued or bwy undervalued, or some sort of combination of the above. Psn Per 9.8, bwy 6.0 makes me think psn overvalued.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Have you looked at odx yet, and what did you make of them? I looked at them some time ago and decided to leave them alone - can't remember why now.
Don't know much about wine (thought the Mosel was in France). I looked it up and figured it must be pretty close to the Champagne region. A long time ago I was given a blue bottle of wine, by a pal who said it was not for export. Think Crown of Crowns is the best Liebfraumilch you can buy here - can't remember what the Blue bottle was called.
BoL

Hi Ddubya
The take up (or lack of) by Chinese tv makers of nano CFQD's, could possibly be explained by them waiting for a settlement to be made before making a commitment, but I don't see why it should make any difference. Just one contract with any of them would probably make nano a viable concern, but if Samsung's CFQD's far cheaper than nano maybe that is why they are holding back.
Looking better every day and might top up again on Monday, (along with ggp).
BoL

Hi amerloque
I'll say again US Court will hammer Samsung if it gets that far. Take them for every penny they can to protect US and international IP. Since so many other issues are emerging (besides simple willful fraud), I think Samsung just cannot let this go to court.
Or to put it another way, should ME settle for a pleasant £500m or £1Bn or more?
ME's nos based on 14m Qled tv's sold, but how many now?
BoL

Hi Davie
I rarely post on this board (too many messages), but one thing has become obvious to me. I know next to nothing about mining so the important thing is to recognize people who understand their Sector. Paddy is the expert here and the best way of using these chat boards is to decide who are worth listening to.
It is good that you apologized then you are forgiven, but really you should do a bit more research before criticizing anyone.
I have developed a few heroes, Paddy one of my favorites.
BoL

Ps
Hedge fund. Calc your loss on psn assuming sp goes down to 2200 then calc no of shares in nano to cover that (assuming 10* increase). Worst possible case nano goes bust, but news there is getting better all the time, so think no chance of that.

Hi TMT
Sorry, I shouldn't hope the Sp goes down, and yes it would be good if I can buy back at 3000 and still be up cos of ggp and nano profits.
Incidentally nano sp 17.7 and hoping for a settlement with Samsung before 1st Sep (otherwise IP case goes to Court). Sp up from 10.42, 27/05 so consensus of opinion is +ve. If settlement for £500m + contract, I calc sp should be 180+ or over 10* current Sp. Bet that would make Mrs TMT happy!
My current thinking is desperate times need desperate measures, until Covid-19, Brexit and Recession sorted, then move back to Port of about 50% HB's, 50% specials, 15% Cash - did say about! Then get my Builders float system working again.
BoL

Hi SL
The fundamental for any calc is the amount per tv - somewhere between $10 and $1000. That is up to the Court, but since they are trying to stamp out IP infringements, I like to think a lot more than $10. The fact it could be $1000 means Samsung will be desperate to stop it going to Court, so I'm still hoping for a settlement (£500m to 1Bn + contract).
BoL

Hi BTB
Nano would have to agree to be bought. If I was ME I would reject $200m out of hand, need £2Bn to even ask shareholders to vote on it. Since court case settlement will probably be far more than that (besides costs), round numbers say £3Bn, nano will get more than £1.5Bn, so $200m is laughable.
An out of Court settlement is still possible and I suggested £500m + contract as being possible, but now as their situation (apparently) improves, maybe £1Bn + contract.
That is far better for Samsung than Court case cost of £4Bn (and RoW - ie *2) and possible ban on Samsung sales in US.
According to my old SS £1Bn creates Sp of 368 due to cash alone (not including prospects of Income from contract).
This is a disaster for Samsung, can they handle it? Who controls the Company when Directors in prison?
All of which is well known by the US Court who are trying to stamp out IP infringements (hence willful 3* rule and fast track by having to present their defence before going to Court) to protect their own companies.
Shame nano didn't build in a bug or two like Concordski, Russian Space Shuttle and their pipeline.
BoL

Hi TMT
Glad you increased holding in ggp. I am sure you won't regret it.
I hold 54% of port in ggp and 31% in nano so 2 horses. If one goes down the other should cover it, can't believe they both go down. Much happier like that than 100% in ggp like Tom and a few others.
Average price of my sell off of psn was 2212, so hoping to buy back lower than that next year. Most of that in ggp av price 5.3 = 114% profit.
Both ggp and nano could be taken over in which case shares turned to cash and I will be able to buy much more than double my old HB's holdings, else I will hold some ggp and nano shares but probably still be able to buy back about double HB's holdings. At least that is my plan.
BoL

Hi Graham
Regardless of what Boris says there is No Deal Brexit yet and not looking like a deal will be made. Also Recession due to Covid-19 is going to happen. I think neither should affect HB's much but the market does and they set the Sp.
BoL

Great post TMT.

Having failed to bail out of HB's during Brexit, Covid-19 (neither of which are over), I am anticipating further drop in SP's due to Recession and No Deal Brexit. Not going to make that mistake again, and done really well out of ggp.

I agree with you that Recession, No Deal will have little affect on Builders and Imho already built into the Sp (see Per's), but it doesn't matter what I think. If No Deal and/or Recession the Sp will probably tumble even more.

Also agree Sp Aug 19 was probably silly but I don't think it justifies a 45% shift in relative price. According to my tables bdev Per 6.4, psn 8.2 and no reason for that difference, given no guarantee psn issues are over.

Last point share dealing is so cheap now (and fast) money can be made out of short term Deals, particularly due to volatility, and don't think it is a good idea to be in HB's now.

BoL

Hi TMT
Performance of psn over last few weeks has been great and long term they should do well. Much more worried about short term for HB's.
Without even looking at numbers in detail - just from my Relative Strength graph and comparing psn to bdev bearing in mind psn quality issues, bdev none:
If sp 04/01/19 = 100 when bdev 474, psn 2006
30/08/19, Low point for psn
bdev Sp 631, RS 122.7, psn Sp 1893, RS 83.9, so down 38.8% compared to bdev.
now 10/07/20
bdev Sp 544, RS 106.4, psn Sp 2635, RS 122.6, so up 16.2% compared to bdev.
Swing 45%. The numbers don't matter very much, easy to say the market overreacted to psn troubles (which also made bdev look better than perhaps they were), but a 45% swing is excessive. It assumes all psn issues are over and bdev going backwards quickly. Both have performed better than my others (bwy, rdw and tw), but makes me think psn overvalued compared to the rest.
See Bamps post below. As I said psn a great long term investment, but Imho not til next year.
BoL and think a good time to top up ggp before drilling results around 23/07.

Hi Billy
I am not a chartist, particularly when Sp driven by Politics, disease... and so volatile.
Not saying it is wrong - it could be actually self fulfilling. If Sp breaks resistance level (150 to 155) Buy and if Sp falls below 136.5 Sell.
Personally I am just about out of HB's cos expecting a disaster soon. Waiting for next year to get back in.
BoL

Hi Bonzo
The only way Samsung can make themselves safe from future IP issues is to own nano themselves, particularly cos a court settlement may cost more than simply buying them.
Don't think a broker will be used to hoover up shares, more probable an offer, which will have to be approved by shareholders. Hardly matters what we think - depends on Loam and RG.
BoL

Hi Bonzo
I agree, signed Deal with Mintz is probably cos out of Court settlement is now impossible. Why should the judge put pressure on to settle? He will know Samsung's History and is probably rubbing his hands together thinking willful - yes, previous - yes, directors convicted Crims - yes, Damages $42 Bn - Yes.
At £114 per share even I will be a millionaire.
BoL

Hi TMT
No doubt psn a great company and builders still massively undervalued, but I still expect things to get worse before a recovery next year, so HB's just 7.5% Port now. Expecting a surge in ggp next week on new drilling reports, top up there?
Just unfiltered exstatex, reported his post and filtered him again. If enough people do that we might get rid of him!
BoL

Hi SL
Your figures are based on the assumption that nano has no value at the moment - the value is £53m now.
If out of court settlement of £500m nano will get a lot more than half, possibly 100% cos Mintz will have done next to no work on the case. Any settlement by US Court will be for far more than £500m.
My calcs £500m Sp 194, £1Bn Sp 368 (less Mintz charges 0 to 49%). Based on old numbers MrktCap and Sp curr conv $ to £ 0.81.
Hi Bonzo
Why a couple of years? If out of court settlement the damages must be paid before cancelling the Court case (would you take an Iou from Samsung?) If Court settlement Samsung will be in contempt if it is not paid promptly. Don't know when the court case will be heard nor how long it will take, but hoping nano has the money this year.
BoL

Hi BTB
Don't forget 3 * rule for Willful = $ 42 Bn, or £ 114 Sp!
Point is if it goes to court US will throw the book at Samsung, and damages will be substantial.
BoL