Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
Psn Sp performing great. On my Relative Strength chart just gone off the scale (av 100 on 04/01/19, psn 131, max 125). Is the Share really worth that much more? Bdev 108, bwy 89, rdw 88, tw 84.
Just read your post on ggp:
"My investment rules about not getting too concentrated in any one share are smashed to smithereens."
Completely agree with you and happy you took the plunge. I am not optimistic about HB's in short term while everything looking so good for ggp. Might sound sensible for head to rule the heart, but given current circumstances I think follow your feelings, cos basically the worse the economy does the better ggp will do.
BoL

Doesn't really matter. The Seller sold to the Buyer.

Hi Bamps
I've never heard of it before either. Just gets better and better. Somebody asked the price in X months, my best guess double current price or much, much more.
Of course I could be wrong again.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Agree with you about spending and building. Printing money will have an affect on the value on the currency sooner or later - used to lead to inflation, but not much sign of that yet, maybe cos everyone is doing it.
Anyway, another reason why ggp such a good bet.
BoL

Hi SL
Judge Gilstrap takes no prisoners! Yet more reason for Samsung to settle out of Court, but no doubt they will delay as long as possible.
BoL

Hi Owls and CJH
Psn in process of recovery after Quality issues and Dir Bonus. Also they have a far better financial position, restoring Divis and have just produced much better results than expected.
So does psn deserve to be so far ahead of tw? I don't think so but think best value is bdev now, not that I am investing there yet cos too many disasters on the horizon.
BoL

Hi chester
Any stock that has done so well as ggp attracts momentum players who are volatile. A slight hiccough for whatever reason could make a migration out of it, but this creates an opportunity. This means the fluctuations should be very short term.
Fundamentals are great and prospects improving almost every day. Nothing to worry about and as Dillon said just be patient.
BoL

Hi TMT
All the problems for Builders have been created my Govt. Boom / Bust Economy (Slumps) by increasing interest rates (leading to HB's getting rid of all direct Labour), changes to apprenticeships (so hardly any now, and lack of qualified tradesmen) and planning permission (pushing up land prices and leaving LA's open to bribery).
Then they introduce a fool called Brokensh*t who tries to blame it all on HB's!
Not a bad idea to go back to a healthy 25% inflation. If you can get a mortgage you can pay it off in no time, unlike the kids at the moment who could be stuck with a mortgage for 25, 50 or 100 years.
If nano sorts itself out at least I can help out my kids.
BoL

Hi TMT
Easy to see the route to Hyperinflation (via printing money), can't really see deflation happening cos Govts will just print more money. Never really thought about deflation - not convinced it would lead to Gold price drop.
We could be on the verge of another economic disaster, money worthless and gold flies, which is more probable than massive deflation Imho.
BoL

Hi ddubya
Nano have a patent for Dot seeding process (Samsung hasn't). If Nano can prove dots in Samsung Tv's are Nanoco's they are guilty. I can't think of any legal points to consider.
I still don't think Samsung can risk this going to Court.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Don't think Nanosys guilty of anything. I suspect they use extreme temperature method of producing CFQD's with no mass productions capacity, while I think Samsung (Hansol) using nano seeding process, which should be easy to prove, and invalidates any Samsung defence. (No need for court case).
BoL

Hi TMT
I get the impression that the price of gold is being held down. If so, by whom and how long can they maintain this stance. Come global recession I expect the price of gold to rocket and no institutions will be able to prevent it.
Any ideas?
BoL

Hi Bamps
I was originally encouraged by BofE saying the Recession wouldn't last long, but more people are beginning to doubt this. Not too worried about recession cos I don't think it affects supply / demand much. Far more worried about possible No Deal Brexit and any further Covid-19 bad news, but think these things will affect LSE rather than Nationals.
Many factors are forcing people out of cities to the Shires, which I think will have an affect on prices soon, and it is not easy for Lse builders to move.
Thanks for the warning on jlp, haven't even looked up their work geographically yet.
BoL

Hi TMT
I suggest you read the tw Board where quite a few tradesmen are posting. Very interesting comments about state of Building at the moment and some negative statements about psn.
BoL

Ps
I can't see ncm taking over ggp, but they will buy out Hav rights. They have just had a Rights issue and no doubt will be reluctant to issue another.

Hi Bamps
I see no reason the Specials will not be reinstated at some time - possibly next year but all depends on the recovery after the upcoming slump.
Only made 3.9% on jlp so far on a small investment, so no more than pennies. I intend to increase holdings as and when that increases. One thing I like about them is they have income (on Copper tailings processing) unlike ggp (113.1% profit - no income).
Tmt said on ggp board he would like to see them getting some income, and I agree with him. Only problems are, it is effectively a different business (no expertise in it), very expensive set up, and long delay until it turns into cash. If they try to do that I am tempted to move from ggp to jlp faster than I would have wanted. I think a good balance about £1 value in jlp to £2 in ggp, depending on growth, which I think will decrease for ggp if they follow the income line.
BoL

Hi chester
Been invested in builders for last 7 years but am mainly out now (about 5% port), cos very worried about Covid-19, possible No Deal Brexit and Recession. I think these factors could have a big negative affect on Sp's, but I do think Builders will be less affected than most sectors.
Troubled times mean you should move to commodities which will always hold their value, like food producers, and metals like Gold, Silver, Copper... Done very nicely out of ggp and jlp, but don't have any food producers yet.
BoL

Hi Fatp
Vty has underperformed most other Bilds for many years until they sacked Ceo and apparently appointed a very good replacement. Jury out on that.
More importantly based in LSE which I think will suffer more than the shires in the current situation, re Covid-19, possible No Deal Brexit, Recession...
Suggest you look at Nationals psn, bdev, tw, bwy and rdw.
BoL

Hi Ben and Bamps
As Bamps said the input from people like Ben is invaluable to us investors, to get a feeling on what is happening on the ground. A couple of short statements have just put me off psn even more.
Interesting question about when to invest, now given the optimism or wait cos of recession. Don't know the answer, but I don't think recession affects supply / demand much - the market does and they set the price.
BoL

Hi TLW
I agree Sp movement at the moment is pretty meaningless. All depends on news. The good thing is given worst possible case (nano lose Court Case), that won't happen for a few months, by which time new contracts will have come thru justifying the current Sp or increasing it. So basically no down side.
The upside is amazing. My original idea of settlement damages of £500m is not unrealistic (given a S Korea court ordered $700m against Samsung for an IP infringement).
Basic Calc 500m / 306m shares should increase Sp by 163 pps = 181, £1Bn inc Sp by 326 to 344...
But again it is even better than that cos any settlement must include nano to have a contract to supply all CFQD's to Samsung (via Dow or Merck). This justifies a far higher Sp than simply adding Value to Mrkt Cap. Or if £500m settlement I expect a Sp of at least 200.
No idea how the Sp will move given a settlement, but if £500m (justifying 200 Sp), it might take longer to reach 200 than could be expected. Simple reason for that is I think a lot of people like me will be selling happily at 150 even if it could reach 200, cos got too much money stuck there. Hence an opportunity.
Last point, if I was on the Board of Directors of Samsung I would sack all the Execs running the Company, cos they are risking the Companys reputation and future.
Hi Maninpink
Any recovery stock is vert very risky, hope you got in at a good price, so be prepared for the worst.
I remain optimistic and Bol.