Member Info for Nige_W

Hi BBD
Think desperate times need desperate measures, hence pretty much dumping my PER method for now - will revert to it when (if?) things return to normal.
I think a buyback makes sense if Sage regards its Sp is undervalued by the Market, but with a PER of 28.9? Also you need the spare cash. Tw had a rights issue to raise cash to buy cheap land. Not sure if that was a good idea either.
Don't know how badly stocks will be affected by a resurgence of Covid-19, Brexit with No Deal, Recession and spiraling Unemployment, but think it will be far worse than people seem to expect - hence Gold refuge.
FWIW I still think HB's better prepared for a Slump than most other sectors and Sage also shouldn't be affected much.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Don't think I ever said I didn't like ggp fundamentals. No doubt I was a bi put off when EPS = 0, and so all numbers derived from it, but the big step for me was to start investing in Aims.
I've looked at quite a few miners and not impressed by any other than ggp and jlp. Don't know if I can invest in Newcrest (via HSBC) but I think that is tempting.
BoL

Hi Owls
The fact that psn grew at 10* the rate of vty doesn't guarantee this trend will continue.
I won't invest in vty simply cos it is a LSE builder and psn recent Sp performance has been excellent. Whether that is justified or not is a separate issue.
BoL

Hi Ben
Psn Mrkt Cap £8,182m, Vty £834m - I know which I'd rather have my money in!
BoL

Hi Bamps
Had a quick look at Alba, not impressed by fundamentals. Ggp has by far the best fundamentals and prospects, but I particularly like jlp cos of income from tailings proc. I am sure their process could be patented and licensed out to other Companies to use for Royalties.
BoL

Hi BBD
I still think HB's are far better value than Sage, but obviously the Market doesn't. Regardless how you calc your own PER's and so level of Under/Over valued amount, the Market determines the Sp and as Brexit with No Deal, Covid-19 and Recession are looming, I expect the Sp's to drop even more. Regardless of PER (and my calc of justifiable Sp), I'm not going buy into Companies where I expect the prices to fall even more.
No intention of investing again in HB's until Summer next year.
I am hoping Sage continues to grow successfully (not anticipating any disaster).
I started moving from HB's to ggp last year and completed that process in July, very happy with that cos ggp have done so well.
Don't see any conflict here - I suppose what I am saying is the Market has got it all wrong (presenting opportunities) and while PER and Prospects vital in any valuation, investment strategy must be based on how you see the market moving.
BoL

Hi TMT
Can't see me getting back into HB's until next summer.
Congrats on 40%. I have ggp 66.3%, nano 25.6%, jlp 2.3%, bwy 3.0% and bdev 2.9%. Bwy and bdev my last building stocks (first bought). 66.0% and 42.6% profit. Nano my recovery stock 44.7% loss and hoping for a settlement with Samsung soon. Damages could be 10* nano Mrkt Cap or more so if that a success doesn't matter too much about ggp (and vice-versa). My intention is to move from ggp to jlp if they do equally well with a destination of £2 in ggp for every £1 in jlp.
The trouble I have is finding any Company I like enough to invest in. Looked thru other miners and couldn't find any apart from jlp.
BoL

Think it would be a good idea to set up a virtual portfolio to compare with the real one

Hi Harry
Too much of a coincidence and shows the dangers of day trading (about 4k loss).
BoL

Hi TMT
As you say I don't think it will make much difference. Most Builders seem to have taken measures to stop this happening, so Govt just wasting time and money again. There has already been an enquiry which made recommendations, which HB's will have no doubt followed.
BTW Were you bullied into buying more ggp by Mrs TMT, and what is your % age now of Port.
BoL

Hi BBD
All things being equal all companies should have about the same PER. This means the variation of PER's is dependent on how the Market regards the prospects of the company, or if good prospects higher PER, if poor prospects lower PER.
From this point of view Sp doesn't matter, all about EPS. Companies in different sectors will be affected in different ways by the disasters we are living thru (or to come), but I think fundamentally Builders are (and have been) undervalued for years.
Resilient to Recession (as proven by austerity), sales bounce back (after lock down) and Brexit with no Deal will affect LSE builders much more Nationals.
Due to the fact that Sage is not a high growth company any more, I don't think it justifies such a high PER, and due to the resilience of Builders I think their prospects are better than the Market thinks, so justify a higher PER.
Incidentally one of the best builders, bkg (Berkely Group) have been buying back shares for ages - not sure if it has benefitted them or their share holders. Just on Watchlist cos LSE.
A comparison of SP, EPS historically (since 2010) would be interesting, if the market is right decrease in Sp should anticipate decrease in EPS by about the same %age.
I anticipate low point for Builders early next year, so mainly out now, replaced with Gold (via ggp). Volatility means Opportunity, but I'm not a day trader, just happy to be sat on Gold now.
BoL

Hi Lynny
Good point about ggp on this board. I am one of the worst offenders. Bamps tipped them first and quite a few people (Tom first, Troubles, TMT, myself and others) got in. Some great posters on ggp but so many messages I don't read them all, so rarely post there.
BoL

Hi SL
Pure speculation but maybe ME was preventing a settlement so that's why he's gone. Cost of Lawyers doesn't matter to Samsung - part of smokescreen.
BoL

Also East Texas Court has teeth. If damages not paid Samsung in contempt and does an appeal system exist?
All assuming it goes to Court, which I doubt.
Sell price more than buy price now - a bi strange, a good sign?

PPE
The S Korean Court could not enforce their judgement, the East Texan Court can and with a vengeance, injunctions etc..
And as ddubya said:
"Judge G will see it for the waste of Court time that it is. I suspect he will be displeased with their inability to meet the first deadline only to find they dither further and lodge a defence they could have provided many months ago".
He will be fully aware of Samsung previous so will probably be really looking forward to trying the case.
Besides injunction and disruption of research, Judge Gilstrap is someone Samsung will really want to avoid.

Hi Bamps
Over the moon about ggp and quite sure Tom is as well. Think it is the only company he holds now - can't blame him for that!
Hi Ben
Profit now 156% and 65% of Port - too many eggs in 1 basket? Many reasons why I think this is not the case.
The accounts show current assets far greater than current liabilities, so not going bust any time soon. The Maiden Resource Estimate is just about to be published for Havieron where ggp hold a lot of mining rights. Ggp don't do mining (just exploration at the moment) so will happily sell off their land to NCM who desperately need to buy it to keep their refinery at Telfer going. Mrkt Cap of ggp now £537m , NCM land deal could be worth more than £1Bn (ie Cur Price 16.2 new price about 50+).
Not only that but ggp has mining rights at Scallywag, not clear how much gold there yet but could be the same again.
So prospects are excellent and future income guaranteed for a long time. IMHO one of the safest investments you can make at the moment, particularly in these distressed times (recession / inflation) which should drive up the price of gold the ggp is sitting on.
BoL

Hi Basscadet
These actions often lead to Counterclaims, so I assume the initial contract will cover that. If not I'm sure it could easily be extended to cover it (assuming this needs a Court Case).
BoL

Hi Basscadet
Shirley you cannot believe a US TPF will not be able to afford to pay for the action? I'm also still hoping for a settlement.
Hi ddubya
To argue technicalities without denying they breeched the IP is about as weak as it can get, new lawyers to argue their case certainly doesn't show confidence, so agree looking good.
Hi PPE
Your Calcs are meaningless based on 3 * lost royalties and a court case. Not even the S Koran court used that as the basis for their Calc, hence $700m damages. The fact that they could not enforce it has nothing to do with East Texas Court who certainly will.
Given Samsung not even denying IP Breech does it really need a court case (if simply based on technical interpretations?)
Nothing more than smokescreens.
BoL

Hi ddubya
Based on costs of $250m + willful infringement * 3 = $750m - not too far off my minimum settlement of £500m, but I think Samsung would happily settle for £1Bn. Interesting to note that Kaist settlement much more than 3^ their costs.
Maybe ME gone cos nano directors thought there was no chance of a settlement while he was there?
BoL

Hi Ben
As you will have seen I have expressed my concern about Builders and basically the same thing applies to RR. I expect the low point early next year.
My point is a good hedge to these problems is gold and ggp up 10% this week with no news. Fundamentals excellent and prospects great so you have not missed the Boat.
Also price of gold being kept artificially low by II's shorting the price to keep it down. They cannot maintain this idea for long and the price will rocket.
BoL

Hi TimBob
Usually we only get 1 disaster at a time, now possibly 3 on the way.
My most depressing numbers are based on the way the Market has moved in the past, and has nothing to do with what I regard as the real value of HB's.
I regard the Real value as being far more than current Mrkt Caps and Builders have been undervalued for years, but it doesn't matter what I think.
BoL