Member Info for Nige_W

Hi All
Under 100 now and I think still a long way to fall. Apparently a vaccine due soon and Govt can't afford another lockdown. Still worried about recession and Brexit with No Deal.
Congrats to Tom who sold 2 * 250k in Ggp at 27 then bought them back at about 23.
BoL

Hi Ben and Maninp
I expect ggp to drop a little (or more) on Monday, so a possible buying opportunity. I'm not selling any cos don't know when drilling results will be published nor MRE (Maiden Resorce Estimate for Hav) - due 4th Qtr ie from Oct 1st. The MRE forms the basis of the sale of ggp gold to Ncm, so that is the big one.
Didn't even know price was 27.0 until brother phoned - LSE stated 27.0 before Stock X so I assumed LSE wrong. Made my best week ever by far.
Nano very risky but massive potential. Sp doesn't really matter at 13.3 but creates MrktCap 41m. They are suing Samsung for £14Bn while I am hoping for an out of Court settlement of £500m + a contract. This should value Nano at over 200 - not a bad return for 13.3 each.
Good to see builders doing well, but still think a disaster is on the way, now sub 100 looks probable, how low I have no idea but intend to buy in again next year.
BoL

Hi Ben
Couple of pence? As I said in my last post all about fundamentals and prospects. I admit tw good in medium / long term, just not for me til next year.
BoL

Hi TimBob
Did you notice the last 2 days Sp of ggp declining. I think it reached 21.3 then price became 27.0! As I said "regardless of Short Term Sp movement." Nothing has changed (Fundamentals and Prospects) apart from GDXJ got some on the cheap.
BoL

Hi Floater
Any progress with private Board. Some excellent posters here but now outnumbered by idiots.
Still think my idea of auto ban for anyone reported would sort it, and could even make people a bit more polite and courteous.
BoL

Hi TimBob
Congrats on buying into ggp and glad you are happy. I know I have been ramping them for ages, but hate it when anybody buys on my advice. Medium / Long Term prospects are excellent (a Year or more), so advise you to hold regardless of Short Term Sp movement.
An American Fund GDXJ buys into miners when Mrkt Cap > some amount? and have been in the process of buying ggp this week, hence price rise. They could have reached their limit (hence drop today) but I doubt it. No RNS from ggp regarding major share holders (>5%)and don't know what their limit is, but suspect > 5%.
Next major news Scallywag drilling results in October which could boost Sp, but with any such high growth Company it attracts momentum buyers increasing the volatility of Sp, so I expect a dip after GDXJ reaches its goal (don't think they have yet).
BoL
Ps Need to start making notes on all these things - too many ? in my text, maybe Bamps could help out.

Hi Owls and TimBob
Psn in recovery process from quality issues and CEO Bonus, so outperformed all other builders. PER much higher that the others cos got more cash, but whether they deserve such a high Sp is another matter. I hold no shares in Builders now but still think bdev best value.
The combination of printing money and recession could trigger inflation which could push the price of Gold up.
BoL

Hi Ben and Bamps
You have still not missed the boat. Gold at Hav worth a multiple of ggp Mrkt Cap, which means when NCM buy the rights, the Sp will increase by 2 times or more (after MRE 4th Quarter). This doesn't even include the Gold at Scally, Goliath, Kraken...!
If the price of gold doubles in the mean time NCM will have to pay double.
I've said this before, but orig investment at 1.801 on 06/08/19, and after 12 top ups av now 6.3, Sp 23.3 = 269% profit and now 76% Port. If I was wise I would have got out of Builders, put the lot in ggp so Av 1.801 then 1,194% profit!
A bit better than 0.25% interest from a bank!
BoL and All Hail Bamps

Hi SL
Think next RNS (end of term?) somebody said not until Oct. Deadline approaching quickly, no doubt discussions still ongoing and suits everyone to get this resolved. Management can't say anything at the moment and once it gets to Court still won't be able to say anything without Mintz approval, apart from new contracts which they probably won't get until this is resolved.
Still hoping for an out of Court settlement and, even if it goes to Court, in the Pre-Trial schedule validity of Patents are discussed and I seem to remember Mintz has someone specialising in that. Also the implications of any judgement, another specialist in International law could get hansol banned from making Nano Dots. Since Samsung not even contesting they are using Nano Dots and validity of Patents discussed before Court Case, it might not even need to go to Trial.
BoL

Hi Floater
There are some great posters here but since I don't read all the posts, I fear I am missing a lot of them, so agree a private board is a good idea. Good point on administering it, I know TomE well from TW board (Honest and Fair) but don't think Admin would approve. Simple idea anyone reported auto banned, unless an apology.
BoL with your idea

Hi Mason
14% drop in House Prices? I suppose it could happen, but I very much doubt it. Will the shortage of houses suddenly disappear and if not, why should Builders drop their Prices?
The Market is led by articles like this without looking at recent History. Since the Banking Crisis HB's have steadily improved all critical factors (EPS, Margin, Cash Held, Divis...) despite their perceived Issues (Austerity, Brexit, Covid-19...) Only 2 things matter to Builders - Mortgage availability and Interest Rates, but these could be affected by the other factors.
Having said that I just sold my last shares in HB's to buy jlp rather than nano.
Doesn't matter what I think cos the Market sets the prices and I think Sp's will fall a lot as we head towards next year.
BoL

Hi GPSRF
Very good point - not comparable.
Don't post here much cos too many silly messages, but by far my biggest holding.
No doubt better examples that will reflect ggp better, But a lot of people will have a target price and once that has been reached will sell, which could negate GDXJ buy affect a bit. A lot of current investors are momentum players and could sell on a dip.
Not my way, first investment at at 1.801 just over a year ago and after 12 top ups av now 6.3 with no sells.
BoL but I don't think we need it - best Company I have ever seen!

Hi Cdl1
That's right - Sat on my hands. Thinking of topping up nano from last Builders but, unless a disaster or something I have little intention of trading until next year. Still looking for next ggp - very impressed by jlp and will top up there if they do well.
BoL

Hi Cdl1
MrktCap £755m. Short Term Sp will depend on value of Gold at Hav that ggp own, and MRE 4th quarter. so won't know til then.
Recent drilling results indicate a lot, so If value of recoverable god is £755 then Sp could double, but the reason for £755 value now is a lot of Hav already built into price. But then how much of Scally built into Price?
Simply too many variables to make a reasonable guess, but, as Bamps said earlier:
"My lad wants me to take profits and put into something safer. Where's safer?", when you are sat on so much gold. Price of Gold about to Collapse?
BoL

Hi BBD
Not too bovvered what anyone thinks, seems to be only us two on this board now, but a great discussion.
I think incredible value in HB's now - some time ago I calcd tw was worth 260 (now 111), but that was before Covid-19 and fundamentally nothing has changed, we still need more houses. If a new lockdown (no houses Built) tw is worth nothing but its Assets. Obviously the Govt cannot let this happen, but I do think we are in for a very bad time.
A resurgence of Covid-19, Recession and Brexit with no Deal will make HB's Sp plummet but I'm not too worried about that.
What will kill off HB's is higher Interest Rates and Mortgage availability, which I think could be a result of the above.
Not really bovvered about Share Buybacks, the volatility in the economy makes it almost meaningless and I don't think it has benefitted bkg much, the Company or share holders.
Traditionally if high inflation (due to printing money) the price of Gold increases cos money loses value. Ggp just increased in value by 25% this week (now 215% profit after just over a year and 12 top ups), but price of gold has hardly increased.
Some daft numbers PER -199 (cos they have no income), MrktCap £755m, Cur assets 2.83m, Cur Liabs 0.63m - so rich.
But, the reason for the big increase in Sp was drilling results in Aus confirming a massive amount of Gold in the land they have rights to (£Bn's and a guaranteed buyer in NCM), and more results to be published soon from another development.
If price of gold doubles so will the value of ggp.
My best investment ever and cannot see any probs for at least a year, Fundamentals and prospects excellent.
BoL

Hi Tony
You mention the 2 most important things to Builders, Mortgage availability and Interest rates. Both good now but doesn't mean they will remain good. For me this is more important than Covid-19, Recession and Brexit with No Deal.
Things might seem OK at the moment but could well go pear shaped towards end of Year.
BoL

Hi TMT and Bamps
I'm trying to create contingency plans as well - hoping to make money out of nano soon, if so I will give my kids some money and double my holding in ggp and jlp while holding about half by value in nano of ggp. Of course this is dangerous (too many eggs) but I really cannot see any disaster for ggp in the short term.
Much happier to get some money back in Builders but as I said I don't think it is the time now and beginning to think it could be later than next summer.
BoL

Hi SL and amer
Congrats on your research and cooperation that has developed our knowledge so much. This really is the purpose of these boards rather than the tis tisn't argument I seem have to got into with PPE.
SL - I'm still hoping for an out of Court settlement, so a little disappointed with the thread title.
FWIW I think Min of £500k damages out of Court and £1Bn from Court (in less than 2 years) rising to max £5Bn out of Court to £10Bn from Court. Hoping for £500m out of Court + Contract = about 200 per share.
That is best for Samsung as well cos no Injunction, no further actions around the World and they can continue to develop QLED Tv's, besides damages and costs.
Samsung not even denying they are using nano QDots - questioning validity of Patents and Mintz team looks formidable, particularly against some hired US lawyers from different Companies (would their own experts not even take the case on?)
Things looking better than ever to me.
Thanks again for your excellent research and VBOL

Hi Ben
The system I use to compare Bldrs is PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) which is Sp / Earnings per Share. The lower the Per the better the value, so no surprises Psn have the highest PER (least value) given their Margin, Cash Held...
I'd give you the numbers but my system broke at the moment, anyway all numbers published here in fundamentals. Then my method is to decide which offer the best value from PER. At the moment I think best value is bdev (cos much lower PER than psn), tw and psn about equal, but possibly the lowest PER's, bwy and rdw better value cos lowest PER's. The Market doesn't like them cos they hold the least cash.
As I said mainly out of Builders now cos I'm expecting a disaster. I still suggest you put a few quid in ggp cos I think Sp is about to take off. The price of gold will be driven up as inflation and unemployment increase, resultant recession will drive the price even higher, while Brexit with No Deal will make it even worse for this Country.
The only good thing is that while the Market thinks all of the above will be a disaster for Builders, we'll still have a shortage of housing (a product to sell) and Brexit hardly matters. Since 2010 Banking crisis Builders EPS have been steadily increasing despite Austerity and Brexit worries, and the wild movements of Sp proves the Market hasn't got a clue.
Regeneration and HA's need Govt spending, they maintain the idea that when interest rates are so low (Govt Bonds), it hardly matters. But what happens when nobody wants to buy Govt Bonds?
A very very dangerous situation (and who owns all those Bonds?)
Very BoL cos I think we might need it!

Hi TMT
Planning a ggp exit makes good sense, but I don't think it will happen. NCM have just had a rights issue, may have to do another one to pay ggp for Havieron, but will keep the borrowing to a minimum. Rio a possibility (maybe cos it would mess up NCM), but I think ggp would reject the offer and/or NCM would outbid them. NCM has the refinery in place, Rio hasn't.
BoL