Member Info for Nige_W

Hi SL
Always said Samsung just cannot risk going to Court, when potential fine £42 Bn, but that is not the end of the matter. It doesn't stop Samsung and Hansol being sued in every other country in the World, and if no contract with Nano they could also have QLed Tv's banned from USA.
Given the risks above, what would you (as Samsung) offer ME and what should he accept?
Hopefully, not long now and BoL

This is just a few of my own ideas so please feel free to add comments and criticize.
Step 1
First left click on watchlist of the Company (gives a summary).
Points to note, 3 month chart (growing or not), MrktCap (is it a real player) , PER is that OK (Ggp - 139 a disaster), Earnings (ggp - 0.1 another disaster). Look at Directors Deals and Holdings, if they are buying a good sign, if selling maybe not, but personally I don't attach too much importance to this - it is basically their income in small Companys.
Then click on fundamentals.
Look at Revenue (ggp nil not very good, but not too surprising since they are an exploration Company). Next look at current assets (ggp 2.83) and current liabilities (ggp 0.63). Means they have plenty of money. Given normal companys EPS growth, Margin, Gearing... are important, but generally ggp not normal - the above will give you a financial picture of the Coy.
Step 2
What are the prospects of the Coy.
Sat on stacks of Gold which they will sell off to NCM for a vast amount of money. This is not revenue, just a one off (or several) payment which will increase the difference between C Assets and Liabilities. Even in this terrible economic situation this is good for miners cos price of Metals will increase (unlike Oil).
Step3
Read the Boards - at the moment it seems to me that the consensus of opinion is not if the price of ggp will go up, it is a matter of how much by and when.
My only concern is that ggp will start to digging their own gold up - they should stick to the knitting and concentrate on what they are good at.
If you like ggp have a look at jlp, which I also think has great prospects.
BoL

Hi Owls
Personally I don't think statistics matter at all at the moment, cos of desperate situation. No idea what Sp will be then but guess between 50 and 250 - not much of a guess! Hoping to get back in in 12 months, but not confident I will.
Building has totally changed since 2008 and I have no idea where it is going now, but remain confident in long term.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Agree, not time yet to get into HB's. Sure tw will be alright long term, but not for me now.
Just had a look at jlp and agree looking good. I will start investing there.
Thanks and BoL

Hi TimBob
For the reasons I stated I think it's too early to get back into Builders, and why get out of Gold when the price is just beginning to move? It could fly. I will look up cey, had a look at some others, but for me nothing as impressive as ggp.
BoL

Ps
From Tony Fawcett, ggp Board 04:12 today:
"Analysts at Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank, last week lifted their 12-month forecast for the gold price to $2,300. “Real concerns around the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency have started to emerge,” the bank’s analysts told clients. “Gold is the currency of last resort, particularly in an environment like the current one, where governments are debasing their fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to all-time lows.”"

Hi TimBob
The points you highlight, Cheap Money, Changing work practices (from home)... imply to me that an economic and cultural change is in process. Housing Slumps used to be caused by Govt increasing interest rates, but now we have had a Banking Crisis, Brexit (and Pos No Deal) and looming Recession, besides a possible Economic Meltdown.
How much money can you print until people realise it is worthless? This is why I am into Gold via ggp.
Don't know how much lower tw will go but expect a big drop, only good thing is that due to Supply / Demand situation I think they will perform better than most other shares (possibly causing a revaluation to Sage levels). You can cancel foreign holidays, go out for fewer posh meals, keep the old banger going another year or 2, but you need a Roof, so tw should survive a Recession better than most.
The above 4 horses of the apocalypse will move Sp's more than anything and detailing trends, raising cash, decreasing immigration... is pretty meaningless in comparison and incidentally, bkg one of the best run Companys in the Country. Quite sure they will survive but will need to adapt and in the process of doing that.
So, I suggest you get into Gold as a hedge against disaster. Price of gold already soaring.
BoL

Hi TMT
Thanks for your excellent refs.
Not going to look for it now but I thought the value of warrants should not have too much affect on Sp, even if they are being sold now.
Doesn't matter too much to me cos all in, but do think it is a good time to buy.
I think after all your research, you must be tempted to buy more.
BoL

Good discussion going on. One thing to bear in mind is that Sage has a Per 4 * > HB's, so if tw had Sage Per Sp would be 484, so all it needs is a small change in perception by the market and 500 not impossible.
Covid19, Brexit (or lack of) and Recession will have a huge affect on Sp's and Imho HB's better prepared for this than most other sectors cos Supply much less than Demand.
My hope is that as HB's outperform most other sectors in the impending doom, the Market will be forced into revaluing them, but that will take a long time.
Also I am mainly out of HB's now cos I think things will get worse before they improve.
Last point, without wanting to sound too gloomy, Money is cheap now - this doesn't mean it will remain cheap, nor guarantee it will still have value.
BoL

Hi BBD
Thanks for the reply and I apologies for his late response.
From 1996 to 2001 Sage was my biggest single investment cos I was invested in Tec companys. Basically I stopped investing in 2001 during DotCom bust and lots of great coys taken over by foreign competition when they were cheap.
Started investing again in 2013 hence my start date. Sge is a great Company but very different from what it was in the 90's. It is now a worldwide brand, and growth (thru acquisition) has slowed, while I'm also not too impressed by their adoption of new Tech (like the cloud). So not sure they deserve a Per of 26.
Builders were cyclical when Govt controlled interest rates. An increase would cause a recession and builders would slump, but that has not happened this century. Banking crisis, Austerity,, Brexit (or lack of), Covid19 and Recession cause last / next slumps. It is very noticeable that Austerity had almost no affect on Builders. This could be cos so many jobs lost in the industry (and lack of apprenticeships) that means after 12 years supply has not caught up with demand and probably won't for years.
I am not going to compare Sage to Barratt (the best Imho), you can do that if you like, but once we are over those hurdles, I am sure Builders will thrive again.
BoL

Back to same old rubbish - nothing to do with psn at all.

Hi BBD
Maybe as Intrusive said Sale a tactical ploy, or maybe as people previously said how can you value nano when this court case has not been resolved. The fact that Mintz is now in place means the Court case will go ahead if no settlement and it doesn't matter what happens to nano in the mean time.
Maybe I'm being over optimistic, but I can't see nano (or Mintz) losing the case, and see no reason at all how Samsung benefits from delaying it - just will cost them more.
Still think best solution for Samsung is to buy nano, else a settlement, cos I don't believe they can go to Court. So reason for bidding war is if Samsung puts an offer in for nano, it has to go to an EGM shareholder meeting, which means a counter offer could be made. Chinese just being patient and could buy nano with Jap Coy like SoftBank who bought Arm. Better than Huawei or Hisense which could lead to issues.
Anyway, I reckon min of £500m Settlement + Contract, which will do for me.
BoL

Great post enteleon
So, to Sum up LCD dead, OLED dying, the future is CFQD's however they are applied.
As I said in a previous post CFQD's must be made before they can be set on rods, cones, wafers... regardless of layers, and as far as I know nano seeding process is the best (only?) method of making them.
From that point of view nano CFQD's have a massive future, but the damages already accumulated are massive, even if Tech out of date now (which I very much doubt). And, that is besides all the other applications.
Think Chinese (let alone Samsung) would love to get hold of nano and could be prepared to pay a vast amount for them. Still could end up in a bidding war.
One can always dream.
BoL

Hi ILike
Unlike the market I don't think H2B actually makes much difference to new house sales, cos doesn't affect supply / demand. But could well be wrong again.
BoL

Also
https://www.oled-info.com/kateeve-announces-massive-layoffs
Bit desperate?

Hi RA
My little daughter came back from school one day, with a piece of paper. She said "Dad, what does outstanding Mean?"
Thinking it was a report or something I said "exceptional, wonderful..." then she said "but its a Bill". Oh well.
Don't know why people get so worried here, everything looking so good.
BoL

Hi Patrm
Agree with you long term, much more worried about short term, from Autumn onwards. Possibility of No Deal, recession...
which is why I'm mainly out of Builders now.
BoL

Hi TMT and SOS
The apparent short is the original purpose of the method. To guarantee you get todays price regardless of what happens in the future. Nothing to worry about - just look at the ozs they are going to sell.
In the old days it meant you had enough cash left to buy seed for next year.
BoL

Hi BTB
Sp sge 04/01/13 337, 17/07/20 680 = 102 % increase
Av of 5 Builders Sp (bdev, bwy, psn, rdw and tw)
04/01/13 471, 17/07/20 1486 = 216 % increase
I argue that Builders are not cyclical any more, and growing at twice the rate of Sge.
BoL

Ps
Interesting to note it opened at 15.5 (yesterday close 14.9) before going down to 13.9, now 14.35. Makes me think the price will settle above 15.5 soon.
Not doing anything anyway cos all in, but that was an opportunity.