Member Info for NelsontheDog

So if we are making roughly $5m or so per month and have 4 months to cover payments we can fund this from the cashflows. Might also go a little way to explaining why the deal for Chrome was announced seperate to the PGM's. - maybe a little time to check numbers and test viability before we committed the larger payment I think we are going to try and push through a short term cash squeeze and it will be tight - hence the wording in the comms in case they hit the ground if therer are any glitches to the operations - but as you say the underlying cashflow will be here to stay and can fund Fine Chrome Inyoni and future investments - or a return to SH.

Piecing together an earnings view. Leon Coetzer suggested $1.4m contribution from Inyoni in September alone.
Very Back of fagpacket but here are my estimates based on this and other elements published;
Inyoni PGM after 20% rise in throughput $1,900k per month;
Inyoni Chrome (9000t permonth @ $100 per tonne and assumed additional 20% cost of processing) $720k per month; Windsor PGM (2800oz per month and assumed similar to Inyoni mix) $1700k per month;
Windsor Chrome (80,000t processed per month at similar dynamic to Inyoni) $1,000k per month;
Dilakong (guessing low operating margin @20%, 8000mt recovery per month) $180k per month.
That is a total per month of $5.5m per month - does anyone else have a view?
That would give a payback on investment in JLP of circa 20 months with no assumption of Kabwe priced in, and no value placed on Tjate - cheap!

as this means we are now funding Kabwe roll out, and also $20m+ of investment from cashflows. Given that the acquisitions will have immediate cash generative impact with no timing delay on returns, after our 90 day squeeeze to pay the three tranches of the $16.9m, the implication is that our cashflow is booming and instantly rising with Kabwe still to come on stream. Great news and the cashflow forecast in the results is something i really look forward to reading soon. All going great and with Tjate cherry to maybe hit the news given the current PGM prices....
If anyone has a free cashflow estimator on earnings I would be interested but reckoning with Windsor and now Chrome we may be at $5m+ per month given September $1.4m comment for Inyoni PGM alone.

In regard to the Hernic Chrome - from the interview and prior comments I took it that the Chrome is handed back to the current owner - so we incur the processing costs alongside the PGM's but see no revenue. Therefore the Chrome deal is a simple how much do we pay for the revenue stream associated (and the associated uplift in Chrome production now we are running the delivery of materials to Hernic). The lack of deal may also indicate another reason for taking our bought 1m tonnes of tailing to Windsor as there we get all materials.
The Chrome deal must be fairly advanced for it to be disclosed - otherwise our desire to increase capacity on Hernic involves us also paying more Chrome out - at a minimum it would be good to see a gainshare on the increased delivery of materials but from the open dialogue I am hopeful for a deal here prior to the results in November also.
I have to say that I am really admiring Leon's pragmatic approach to investing in what we know and therefore the reduced unknowns and instant lead times on revenue over further projects - top man at the moment.
So IMHO three key moments prior to end of year; i) Windsor update next week; ii) Hernic Chrome deal; iii) results in November with a view of future cash and earnings of existing and new projects. I hate being optimistic but I am thinking 5p plus prior to Christmas.

Pokerchips, I agree in terms of taking over the company due to SP fall only but why is is falling? ps - I have just added to my long long term position (since 2011) as just too cheap IMHO.

The missing info is the full role play of scenarios that could happen in regard to Zhevago and his bank (ironic if there is impact here given that the bank took $250m of FXPO cash and almost buckled this company at the time) and also the market view as to the impact of the charity probe - for the general market this still flags a stay away.

That said I am breaking my own rule to gamble a little more despite not having the full risk role play and at these dramatically low prices - what is to stop hedge funds, never mind competitors doing the same? The answer is of course Zhevago himself - you cant take over his company without first building a scenario where he is forced to sell. In fact how is the price so low? Maybe part 1 of taking over FXPO is to break Zhevago and as such whom ever is on the go dropping the value of his asset by dropping Share price. Wouldnt cost much as only us retail investors moving here - institutions invested hold tight on fundamentals and institutions not holding steering well clear.

I think Zhevago is under attack (again) and hence the grey area on formal charge - not issued as Zhevago defends himself, but not given up upon by the aggressor either who will have his own minions in government. I fear we are going to be held to ransom until Zhevago seige is over - however I am happy to do this and feed off the mighty dividend till there is a change in circumstance - i just hope one of the scenario's doesnt have wider impact to FXPO via appropriation of FXPO assets.

Hi Kalan

Really appreciate you sharing that potted history - I did not know any of the formation of JLP background. I am relieved I am not entirely barking up the wrong tree with my view of JLP management.
Getting back to Tjate - in 20 years the value will be very much diminished - unless Anglo manage to get platinum use into next-gen batteries as they are currently researching, I don't see the Platimun prices being sustained into the long-term as I expect electrification of cars to happen more and more over the next 10 years. Also in regard to Palladium that is used more in petrol hybrids and hence the current spike on demand as diesel car sales drop, I expect in 10 years for petrol sales to drop also (unless hydrogen fuel cells get a look in, in which case Palladium will keep going up). So if there is an opportunity to cash out Tjate in the now, I would be a big fan.
On a more macro level, I feel that we are about to see a strong sharp acceleration of green thinking in the consumer space and a dramatic shift towards renewables - cars are right in the firing line - people want to feel good about car purchases and this will push further electric cars, even if the technology is still not entirely there. As an example of the shift in thinking, my 7 year old child and some of his friends were out and a Lamborghini roared past - nobody looked super excited and the first comment was that it was not very environmental and they all seemed to agree (very sad but the world is changing).
NtD

The implication from your analysis is very interesting as till recently the value was nil.
$100m!!?? - running my eye over that (the good one) - that's over 4p a share - not much to think about for me given the market has zero value on it. The wider question is what price would i **** a leg on? $5m? Probably yes. In fact any consideration is upside for me as I am invested in the non-mining part of this stock and I would worry that the messages and noise over a mine development could swamp the hard won wins and reputation as a cash generative business would be lost in the ensuing melee.
On a wider basis, I only have this board and the press releases to base my view of Colin and Theo upon, but (and here goes) that view is that Leon is an operational heavyweight bulldozing ahead to put trousers under the strategy the mouth has spoken, whilst Colin is a deal maker and more importantly vision setter prior to that with strong links to allow share placements. In my experience good businesses need both as the business cycle passes, and there is tension between the two areas. I dont expect Colin to change his spots so removal of distraction in the short term at any price is good as he will then focus on deals that further enhance the recoveries business and aid us when we again need those skills in the future (for now Leon is key). I am painfully aware that this is a breathtaking set of mainly unsubstantiated conclusions and assumptions on my behalf (and on only my second post..)
NtD

Hi Kalan

I have been invested in JLP a for just under a year and just registered to post rather than read.
My view is i hope that Tjate is viable and it becomes a viable asset. However I sincerely hope that it is then sold - Colin and his rights issue raising expertise is not needed for this share to rise - we dont need to chase Jam tommorrow when there is jam today to focus on - selling Tjate in my view would deliver an immediate cash boost and double down management time on the non-mining USP of this share.
Anyhow - I love reading this board and I am firmly on the ramping side of this share - the fundamentals are in place, it now just needs to quietly and boringly crack on.

GLA
NtD

Hi

I have been a PPH investor for 7 years and it has given fantastic returns. Given the currency weakness, does anyone feel this may be a takeover target given its UK targeted coverage and discount to its NAV of circa 40%? I realise there is a large insider ownership but I was wondering if there would be clauses on the Park Plaza licence from Radisson that would make a takeover impossible. Does anyone have a view on this?

NtD