Member Info for NelsontheDog

Beginning to feel a little impatient on news - it would be timely to see an update on the testing front for this share. There is so much intensity in this area generally but given the rns for a large ventilator contract, it sets the precedent for a big rns announcement for a significant testing deal. Therefore the absence of RNS can be presumed to reflect the absence of a large deal. I am still bullish on this share after taking some profits but understand the fallback in price as a result of the absence of news. I still think it will happen -the business seems to be a quality one -we just need to see that in a deal or 2. It would give me, and I am sure many of you fellow holders, great joy to hear of a US or European testing deal and a subsequent charge into triple digit share price.
GLA
NtD

IMHO , I would still expect a positive share price result as a result of the announcement of the special divi and for the net effect to exceed the current status quo. Reason being markets always value cash in near term more than the sum of future earnings as there is significantly less risk on cash. Therefore if you hold shares now, you should see an uplift in overall worth of your holding as each step towards getting the divi is breached. First on regulatory approval, second on reaffirmation of deal and timelines - most crucially the ex-div date. Money now always worth more than future streams.
Just felt the need to add this as there is a lot of it wont affect price chatter - it blooming will and we should all reap a healthy return.
GLA
NtD

With the court ruling, its another step towards being seen as a normal risk. I pushed out my view on FXPO about a week ago - i think we will drift up to £2ish and then go stratospheric to £2.50 - £3.00 on our results.
Risk rating - we are currently p/e under 3 - given the consistency of our many years uninterrupted production - this isnt right - court news will hopefully help to raise this. Moving to 4 would add 60p to price.
Results and debt - we have been removing debt at an incredible rate over the last few years and i believe that in August we will be in a net cash position and announce new capital spend to expand our output.
Our production costs will have reduced and our sell price remains very bullish and as such we are pulling in enormous cashflow.

Sorry - tracked it down myself - typical to manager to do this after the query and not before....
Good news anyhow.

Hi Kevwal and pwa,

I dont see any view of this going ex-div this week in the AGM statement or in terms of key dates. Can you enlighten me as to where this information is for Ferrexpo?

Hydrogen may be the best option but that doesnt mean it will prevail. Look at VHS v Beta in 80's - beta was way better but VHS marketed their way to dominence. If hydrogen is going to stake a claim it needs a champion with real resources - Musk is pushing unchallenged at present and with the recent battery achievements indicated has substantially lowered the ev cost profile to that of the petrol engine. In short he is hoovering up the right to map out the non petrol/diesel future

I had put some trading money into GENL ahead of the divi and hoping for forward momentum (which we have had). However the uptick in price and the lack of payment news has made me pull trade out with an ok profit. I rarely get jitters but that lack of payment is omnipresent and was causing me too much concern. Just keeping the core in as payment woes confirmed and I cant understand why the market isnt unhappy about it.

And yet we sit here with a price to earnings that after a good run has tipped up and over 3.........three!

The good news for the patient investor (I'm 10 years in on FXPO) is that even at p/e of 3 we can raise the price via expanding our production capability to give more earnings. The market will or wont catch up but at 3 there is a lot of room for even a slight improvement in sentiment or view of risk - to say 4 - would give us a 33% rise....let alone a more normal low p/e of say 6.....
I realise we are seen as a risky asset, but we are also a fantastic steady producer and have been resilient both financially and geopolitically (when the Russia crisis was a real concern) - And in a new world where a new underlying prevalent risk has appeared for the "safer" assets such as retailers, services, outsourcers, etc, maybe our level of risk is not quite as bargepole esque in magnitude from the bunch or as left of field for an II to propose as a target. would you rather invest in our known risk or back a restaurant that could be closed again in October if phase 2 of CV19 appears?
IMHO we are going to drift upwards to £2 (maybe quicker if there is a positive AGM update on 28th May) and then spike to £2.50-£300 on the next set of results update - 5th August I think (where I also think we will be announcing we are net cash free of debt, and announcing new capacity capital investment programme). Thats my view and I have put my money where my mouth is... remember - £3 is p/e of 6....our resource is good for 80+ years, our output can be almost doubled with investment plan already drafted and considered and we are hoovering in cash at a great rate. Economically we are likely to see infrastructure investment to boost economies worldwide and this will lead to demand for steel and hopefully a continuation of the strong pellet price for a couple more years at least.

Hi Silverknight

I have stayed put in the share after the drop on profit warning and delay as like you say - its very undervalued. I do however think it may be a long road back. Too small for the II's to get too excited about and they burnt Simon Thompson (he recommended after a chat with the team and 4 weeks later they had the profit warning - i dont think he will recommend on principle of trust failure - and that means we dont have easy access to alert PI's. That all said I am happy to farm this - good fundamentals and it may be bought / buy others in the meantime as well as paying a fiar divi. All the growth drivers of the Simon T recommendation are still there - it was delay not disaster. Just not sure who will bang the drum for it.

I think this chrome rns is fairly small scale and the price would indicate you all agree. No money in chrome at moment so hey ho.

On the bigger picture, two good and two bads for me;

Good - we should be pulling in really strong cashflow which will remove debt obligations of current projects and remove the need to have further listings for next projects (maybe)
Good - CB and LC are appear to have cosied up the the Zambian govt and hopefully this bodes well for future projects and licence gaining support.

Bad - Kabwe - all that cosying will count for nothing if this is used against us - very possible a rival group could light the touch paper on this to remove us from the prospect of a future great deal - would force the govment to blame us and undo the work put in - we need to drive this to a lead processing point asap - almost irrespective of profit - somethings just need to be prioritised.
Bad - it appears we have multiple money rasings and re-juggling of capital to cover the same projects / keep repeating the same lines when placing and juggling - the team dont appear to want to de-mystify these overlaps and that gives me an uneasy feeling.

For me (from a distant memory) this is like a new girlfriend - initially you only see the good and the beauty and the potential but a while later you start to see the faults as you get closer - over the last few months the caution side is growing - hopefully a thundering set of updates will remind me of my initial love and the bad habits will go back to worth living with...
NtD

Despite the current wider turmoil, FXPO seems to be doing very well with the price around where it was prior to COVID - iron holding strong and arguably future demand to soar as infrastructure boom occurs to drive out the coming recession.
I have held FXPO for over 9 years and it is as melodramatic as a share can possibly be. Our sister bank goes bust taking all our cash with it, we almost go bust with the debt level due to investments and now we appear to be concerned about our owner being ousted due to the same bank in the past.
That said, I cant think of a more stable time in the last 9 years - if the year carries on anywhere near what the last rns stated we will end the year debt free and can then put free cashflow towards future development towards increasing capacity. I really fee this will bounce off £2 with some more positive rns....
...but I am never right with this share - hoping today is the start of a charge upwards to reflect a more suitable P/E.
GLA
NtD

Hi TT and TBTT,
Kabwe is my main concern -and it isnt to do with the profit but JLP reputation. We took this off BMR and are now the proud owners of one of the worlds worst environmental **** heaps - its all very well saying we didnt build it and its not economic but if the spotlight falls on JLP - 2 years - what have we done - no politician will step in and save us - we will be the bad guy and suffer real damage that will limit future deal making - or - we take a longer term view - do what we promised or be very clear to put that pressure on where it is due and we are the shining light in the process and future deals easier. The longer this drifts the more we hold accountability for the suffering of the Kabwe people., and closer to home, MinorMiner will be proven correct....ho ho.
JLP is a great business but it appears neither Leon or Colin have a handle on the reputational damage that could occur - non mining metal extraction needs to be the environmental good guy - we rsik blowing it by dithering imho.

Decided to trim 3/8 of my position to take initial capital out and got 100.xxxp sell price - very happy and I can now enjoy the next phase a lot more. Still hugely positive on this share - never mind the medical craze, the 5g software tie up with ARM is another real development that could push the share this year imho.
GLA
NtD

Just broken 100 and strong resistance at 100.77 - if we break this then on on....
GLA

The last couple of days have seen the share drop and then close in the last hour of trading higher - close if not achieving the 52 week high. Today we have touched once and then raised high three times - hoping this is a good sign for a push into early triple digits this afternoon. I decided to keep investment whole as i think this has more to give - will trim the holding if we get to triple digits plus a little
GLA

Morning all
Thank you for the views.
SulKap - I am not a chartist but it would be great to get some insight on your views;
Hugh - Yes I am a fan but dont back ST's punts that often - all very risky but I loved the 5G element of BVC with ARM (its still there). I am terrible at selling positions so I use a fairly strict allocation basis to force me to trim good stocks and move from riskier growth punts to steady eddie divi payers (hence my 102p trimming comment). I think I will sell a little soon to take edge off - I bought in September at an average price incl trade and stamp duty of 43.3p so its a nice problem to have.
As i say I have had shares move up and even a ten bagger over the last few years but not with the speed and day to day short term steady large consistency this share has seen. I am guessing that is ii's coming in. However I would also suppoie there are a lot of holders like me now on double purchase price who will sell providing resistance before the 100p level is reached.

Hi
Thoroughly enjoying this multi-day ride at the moment. Wondering if it can get past £1 (my asset allocation rules will make me sell a little at 102p - Simon Thomson (IC) had a sum of parts value of 65p after the ventilators contract news - we are well over that and still daily double digit growth. Anybody trimming their position yet - I am certainly beginning to think about it - not selling though - gut feel says this could go a lot further. I have invested for 15 years and this is the first time I have had such sustained upward trend - in this type of event is it likely to crash, stall, stick or just slow its momentum? I would appreciate the expoeriences of others (even if that isnt going to hold true here)
NtD

Hi f15
I totally agree there will be an impact - its how long it continues and is that now priced in. Key to PPH success for the last 10 yeard has been well managed growth - they have upgraded existing hotels, built new hotels and tend to stick to safe Grade A location developments. They also seem to group hotels - eg near Waterloo they have two hotels next to each other - allows management and staff share and also therefore flexibility to run leaner i suspect.
That development does expose them to a higher debt than a non-developing hotel chain which may play well for you in the short term but definitely a quality company and I dont expect them to struggle on finance in the short to medium term.
Travel companies have the impact all priced in (or not) - I think event companies and restuarant companies face next issues - is this all priced in yet or not?
On the upside - I have BATM (BVC) - developing ID diagnostics and a Covid test for 22p now being trialled for CDC approval - might be a rare upside.
Good luck and keep the tin hat handy!
NtD

Nat lab
if Natlab is as good as it claims this could fundamentally change ID control - if each departure lounge has a natlab -we can in under an hour check not only Covid but Menningitis, TB, modern day rise of measles and many other items that occur all the time - without overly inconveniencing passengers - from security lane it is more than an hour to getting on plane and have the results at that point, call out passengers and deal with issue prior to departure. Hence Nat lab may be the catalyst to a real re-rating of this company

Agree Baz

at 22p you can test the family each day if you could get the tests - test each plane passenger before they leave the airport of departure and really become proactive in containing disease whilst also providing peace of mind to public. Unfortunately I suspect production capacity is not there and no news of licencing to other manufacturing centres as yet. Very humbling to see the gear up of items such as this - real reminder of how amazing science is to mankind.

Of more relevance to the SP of BVC IMHO is the Nat lab - BVC Nat lab is the culmination of years of R&D to identify infectious disease - but ID teams (in UK) are traditionally underfunded compared to other Hospital dperatments as cases are rare). Political pressure will mean that there is a demand to be more ready in future and as such great environment to launch Natlab commercially - capex spend no brainer after CV19.