Member Info for NelsontheDog

Jay
You value a demerged company like any other. You can look at assets or future likely cashflows then look at risks etc and decide its worth to you. As it wont be listed you wont have other peoples views on these valuations inherent in a share price.
The £4m valuation was for the books and tax purposes of the split. My take on STEM is it is worth about $200m for me today(ie if you offerred me that I would take it today) however others may be less risk averse and be keener to develop it. As we progress towards revenues I would expect that number to rise.
NtD

Hi Iceman
We appear to be slipping off the 50DMA today - if we close under this do you have a view on next resistance level - we appeared to floor out at around 22.5 after the manic times - would that be the next natural support?
Hopefully academic and we push on back above DMA but its below for first time now hence question?
NtD

Where the presplit price falls is a really tough call and I have sypathy with SK - the feeling is all over the place. On the one hand we have LTH and value based peeps, on the other we have the uncomfortable position for a share investor of illiquid funds in Accustem. If you are in the US you also have the future Accustem float in UK (Holey moley the UK may be a third world country like Spain was before the EU by then). Who will come out on top? Personally I hope the price pops £2 to protect against the drop. I also believe the TILS products are good and as has been mentoned the PR machine will rev up to mitigate drop after the split. Either way I have a ticket and will be watching with my popcorn (unless we hit a high figure pre split).

ps lots of posts on here saying there is no value to STEM but I believe we all have a value in mind for STEM and it will reflect in the price via a drop in TILS. You know it has a worth as what would you sell it for? $50m? F right off and block caps on BB; $100m? do one; $200m? hmmm cash in hand starts to feel heavy and the body language drops a little.....
Really appreciate this board by the way and great views when we are dodging the split detail (i know, I am not helping).
Formulab could be the next big thing and iwhatever happens I am keen on TILS long term
GLA
NtD

I have to agree with Whimax that Accustem is for sale and TILS are just building a bluff - however if thats the case its a poor bluff and if its really is the case we are going to keep STEM standalone there is some big news to come and imho it needs to be quick. 6 weeks since they announced split but no noise on future plan.
If Accustem is a keeper, who is the board, what is the go to market and how do we fund it. To not have these things present 9 days before split is v poor. Accustem needs to be following a strategy from day 1 of its existence and to do that it needs this. The absence of these details mean we dont really intend to develop it ourselves and are either selling or negotiating a JV go to market. Whomever we are negotiating with must see the absence of intent to go it alone and hence will not be quick to move their position imvho. Therefore we should appoint board, build strategy and price it and publish so we are in a position to IPO - then the buyer / JV partner knows we are serious about possibly going it alone.

TILS perspective isnt why i originally invested but forumalab (or near spelling) looks very very interesting and will likely keep me in TILS longer than STEM.
NtD

I reckon TILS - 130p: Accustem 0.00p

In the 130p I am assuming that we will hit 200p and then 70p impact of split. Price for Accustem is 0 - we wont be listed.

I really hope they are using this float to push a price from an already interested buyer - why? Well to actually mobilize Accustem will take a lot more than the £1m cash we are taking with us - that means a listing and fundraise - to get a fund raise you need confidence in the business - I may have missed it but I havent seen any info around the dynamic management team who are going to take Accustem and launch it. Who would give their funds without this? Hence really hoping for the sale in the two months following split (as I think the TILS board are also).
Just my opinion - however I also feel this is the reason US are not keen - not only are we going unlisted but then float will be in UK - from their perspective - eeeuw! So sale of Stem would release value and rekindle US interest in TILS (though this should happen anyhow after split)
AtB
NtD

Rightback,
Very sorry to hear your news. My thoughts are with you today and look forward to seeing you back here in the future.
AtB
NtD

Rightback, tea down, grab the mic, L2 commentary - lol
Said with true fondness and respect - love the commentary on action!

Iceman,
Thanks for all your TA posts - i am watching the DMA here and on a few others you mentioned - i really must learn some TA skills myself but in the meantime I very much appreciate the insight. Validates TA when you see how we are pushing on from this line each day - as long as we continue on the DMA we will rise steadily. As John Barnes once said - you can be slow or fast but you must get to the (DMA - ahem) line....sorry....
I am hoping that the faith we are putting in the new management team (and thank you those that have met her for sharing your impressions) will be validated by further big pharma tie ups- not just for an obvious improvement in our lot now, but also adds healthy gravitas to the board for future developments and would hopefully shut for good the past history overhang for this share.

Many congratulations Jenny.
Fabulous news.

talking of charts (as a luddite); always reminds me of the Billy Connolly joke "everything on the menu is the same dish. The only difference is the way its folded"
Wishing all a good weekend
NtD

Ophidean
I will bow to your charting but I do slightly disagree with your surmise of the Blautix result. My inference from the results (once you get past the freakishly high placebo rate) is that if Blautix has impact to some degree on both IBSC and IBSD - it implies there is a factor that is treating the cause and not the subsequent symptoms as the other treatments do. It is therefore a reasonable and potentially hugely economic gamble to assume that the Blautix would also impact IBSM. Given the potential for a 1 size fits all prescribing of Blautix I would expect a lot of interest for the next trials.

Bankfool,
Hope some coffee and break restoring a rosy outlook for you. I also hold shares in Lloyds - for 12 years since it dropped in Financial crash (it couldnt get lower - right.....!!)
3 things I have found (sorry if this is uninteresting all)
1. I think I am okay at investing but poor at trading - where the two collide is the buy price - 50% of the time I get in not at lowest price. As such I now initially buy 1/2 or 2/3 of stake amount and add later if it initially drops - in Long term usually okay.
2. When I look at my successes as a LTH the key trait that they all have is strong growth in real cashflow. Hence now dont stray too far from that criteria for the core of my holdings.
3. Still learning (usually the hard way) but compare to money in bank - winning!!
NtD

For all those looking to trade - 112 seems to be support level, bounced off this a number of times today. I reckon that is the floor not 80p - time to get back on board if you sold out - I have added more to bring my avge buy price down - great prospects here.
Good luck traders and lth
NtD

Thanks Grace, Jenny, Adam
These AIM pharma / Covid shares certainly arent dull. Fairly new to sector (August)and VAL was first up ...then down. Bought some Tils and that is now going up, really very interested in ODX and bought there (I am a cost accountant by training so any manufacturing always interests me) - doing well now, and to level out the purse put some VAL money in DDDD also - ouch!
Thing is a still believe in the fundamentals of VAL and DDDD - hoping that as an older and wiser dog I will reflect fondly on this time from afar- only question is will I be in a new basket by a roaring fire looking out on a sunset over a Loch or out in the doghouse in a concrete yard in the drizzle of Dagenham.
GLA
NtD

Winsnip88
Agree - but its not the safety that swings it for me; its the simple, clean marketing pitch to Doctors and patients that this is the ONLY drug you need to prescribe - no dithering on what symptoms are. Very compelling and simple elevator pitch possible (the stuff most of us kno, rather than a complex scientific spiel). Will IMHO see IBS market hugely expanded with IBS-M people gaining treatments.

Noix,
Zengha posted a little earlier - see below;

https://vimeo.com/465510074

NtD

Just watched the results presentation video and for once the benefits seem to be a business orientation rather than scientific;

Blautix addresses both IBS C and IBS D and assumption that it also impacts IBS M (key assumption) as it treats cause and not just symptoms as current treatments do.

Even if Blautix only as good as existing, its safer and most crucially it is really simple for physician to prescribe as dont have to distinguish between C and D patients.
So would expect a massive uptick in prescribing to IBS (mainly the IBS M peeps) and would suit a really strong marketed solution to both patients and physicians. Therefore I would expect phase 3 sponsorship to follow very shortly.
NtD

Hi
I was hoping someone has already done a quick calc (or if not has the key data below and I will knock one up:

Current test profit margin
Fixed costs
Likely test sell price

The way I see it this is a good old fashioned DCF to get a value estimate.
Also some basic profitability economies of scale with ramp up - eg 24hr operating will raise profitability significantly due to static fixed cost versus increased contribution (as will be the case for all fixed operating costs.
I would like to have a straw man profitability to justify potentially adding significantly more to my position and happy to share if anyone has the base data above to hand.
NtD

Hi
When a company like Valirx has published preliminary results but prior to full publication - can potential pharma JV partners see more data prior to full write up under NDA, or do they need to await the full write up? Just trying to get a view of the potential for proper agreement prior to the full write up this quarter? If it is possible, does this happen very often in Bio/pharma industry?
Hoping a Japanese pharma swoops in for us soon....
NtD

I would be happy with a buyback but imho very unlikely. Zhevago getting cash when we divi - given all the issues he has I assume the drive for divi is from him wanting money out. I dont think he would look at capital gain benefit of buyback due to his ongoing risk of losing ownership via litigations etc.
Hoping for £2 tomorrow - also hoping for more divi announcements.
NtD