Member Info for NelsontheDog

In my view we can get real insight from the insiders and I thank you for it. I suppose my request (feel free to ignore it as its your board as much as mine) is to ensure that the comments such as about the poor manager link to the prospects of the share. Are you saying they are all poor or is a managers desire or not to do night shift of relevance.
I wish you good luck in investing and in employment - the two arent always aligned and this is an investing board. Indeed and Glass doors both have space for the other employee stuff should you feel the desire to give it a strong vent.
Wishing you all well and hoping for 235!
NtD

until this post - lol

My personal view here is that someone is trying to get PDL on the cheap (adonis?) but via taking control of the debt instruments rather than an offer for shares at this stage. Therefore the defence of the company is to split off and sell assets so that the debt strategy will not capture the full business without some kind of valuation on the market. Shareholders will support as alternative sees them marginalised by the debt holders - might be a bluff aimed at leading to an offer for the shares rather than the debt route for an interested party.
If the debt instruments due next year are not renegotiated it would be my view that the above is in play. Lets see what announcements are (or more crucially arent) made in regard to the debt.

Soon I hope. Share price is creeping back up to the 100p level where it ran out of steam on the last run - some positive news would certainly drive this share well above that level imho.

Not boring indeed - just very very heavy - it doesnt go up easily -that said its just hit 231 for the first time since its recent foray into the 220's - could be an exciting week if there is a flurry of interest driven by the friday update.
GLA
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....they drag me back in again - Mr Zhevago may have uttered.
Keeping the faith here - part of me wonders whether part of this total war being waged with Zhevago is to limit his access to funds - hence restriction again -even if it will be kicked out it taints and also reduces the sp of FXPO and therefore his options to borrow off its value.
Still believe 300p is target with stellar August update but not sure of the timings to appeal this latest injunction - hopefully it can be concluded and removed prior to that date.

GLA
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Roll up for free cash.....
Net cash £17m (probably more since last reported), Market cap £17m - Free for the asking is a business that pulls in £4m profit per annum (6.5p per share) at a 18% margin and has strong moats and will probably grow. On top of that it pays divi of 1.5p per share or 5.5%.
So cheap that i "gave" myself a little more of this!
DYOR
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Unbelievable value on offer.

Hi
The last RNS relating to large diamond discoveries was in September 2019 - almost 10 months ago. It looks from the RNS history that we declared 4 arge stones that year. This year none, but equally i dont think we announced any in 2018. Is there a view on the average frequency of finds? I seem to recall that they opened a new level to mine in 2019 - is it possible that the new level doesnt have the same composition? Just wondering if there is any knowledge on this ir if it is simply luck of the draw randomness.
Any knowledge or considered views would aid my understanding.
NtD

Regarding the sp on results day. We have roughly 8 working days till it arrives. I realise the market isnt efficient etc and TSCO is sometimes v v v v v defensive in its sp movements - but if the results are as strong as lots of the chatter, the market doesnt agree - i would hope to see the sp creeping up from now - or, the market doesnt think there is anything special not already in the price.
240p would restore faith, 250p magic but tbh 236p and i am probably out of here - just a little too steady for me and despite turnaround over statement, i dont see a long term protection from the so called discount trend.
GLA
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Hi
I really hope you are right. However I have noticed on shopping that both my local sainsbury and tesco small stores have absolutely no discounting on wines. Apart from the fact i have to engage brain to choose now, to me this could be worth noticing - in the 9 years i have lived here this has never happenned.
I am wondering if the revenues are pumped up as all the non-retail food of pre-covid is now in supermarket sales, but that the resultant costs ran out of kilter - hence no discounts to the wine to uplift margin to a more acceptable position with no regard in short term for customer retention. Wine often a local store loss leader. Maybe this is only in my stores or a result of wine supply chain issues but for me it puts a warning flag on the profit margin. Hope i am wrong as i would like to see a little rise (who wouldnt).
GLA
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unvrkw

Agree your point on oil but we have even more advantage. We gain revenue in USD and are therefore able to take benefit of oil reduction. A significant remainder of the cost base is in local Ukraine currency and this devalues giving a further boost to cost. IMHO i would rather we didnt have this boom as it furthers Ukraine risks but its there none the less.
Very happy to see increases in divi but prefer to see investment of future production capability and take the benefit in capital gain - suspect we will see both so happy days ahead if we and the Ukraine can walk the line.

The voice of Nelson the Dog says
TandJ - where is your third person!! - lol.
NtD

I believe that if the family had the funds and the intent an offer would have been made already (i would welcome a reasonable offer). Not sure if that is true - probably more likely that with a controlling interest they will try and drive money to their own pockets via non-fair procurement and jobs for family rather than kill the goose.
I originally bought these shares at the very start of their stellar upturn and I have done very well out of them taking profits as i went. I too like the news and the debt reduction with compare to value per share notes from the board, but....
I dont think many investors like being the minority to a family interest and therefore no matter what will not invest - so I am hoping that dividends in real cash will resume and or a buyout occurs to take this one away - I am loathe to sell as there is tremendous value - however that value is firmly locked in at present and not sure how that will be brought to fruition for PI's.

I think i put the kiss of death on this today. Still it did sail past, now tacking back.....
lol

Did he finally give up on investing?

Investing?? - this is Genel - we are a not-for-profit co-operative on a good day and a benevolent set of donors the rest of the time. Like you, missing the large doses of positivity from Hawkey - hoping he and all other regular contributors staying well, healthy and solvent.
GLA
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Sailed straight through 200p. Not sure in the short term but maintaining my position until we get nearer 300p in early August on production of stellar results, pots of cash and hopefully an announcement of production capacity investments.
GLA
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No doubt the Ukraine is a big risk - but the risk to reward on this share is so tilted. I am not sure why the Swiss head office is there - it is very annoying in that we get the witholding tax on the divi (i dont mean to reopen the divi tax wound - it is what it is).
I have mixed feelings about Mr Zhevago, or for that matter any oligarch investment. IMHO we rely on the oligarch to protect our asset - his oiling of the Ukraine machine keeps other forces off our backs - in fact all this Zhevago stuff feels like a Oligarch v Oligarch McMafia style "total war" challenge. His competitor gets his charges raised - Zhevago minions now quash it. I would expect the case to drop now - looks like Zhevago is again the winner. That is the other reason I would expect SP rise - the challenge is failing, no new king, all hail the old king....
Bottom line is that if we didnt have an oligarch, we would soon - just with a different name.

Come on Tesco you luggard, break the negatives and rise to 235 today - go, go....

....sorry - reasoning and level headedness suspended on Fridays - GLA
NtD

Hi Maksym
I think we PI's were hoping this might influence opinion. When I mention FXPO to my broker friend he always cites the boss and the charity scandal that led to the auditors resignation - very dismissive (he has never even got to considering the wider Ukraine risk).
The independant enquiry into the charity was not as thorough as it could have been but in its conclusions it did state there is no obvious link to FXPO. Most crucually this all concluded a year ago.
So, our main shareholder is no longer a fugitive (he is still being investigated) and the charity saga is fading into the past. Debt no longer scary and add that to a business that white hot in its current money making and you would hope 300p is not too far away. Even on current earnings 300p is a p/e of about 5 and I believe the earnings will be stronger.
I know 200p is closer but its not the prize with this share - if the August results are stellar, we become net debt free, and we commit to expansion - we will be 300p at that time - its only 2 months away.
GLA
NtD

I thought we may get a small ex-divi bounce today - we didnt. I would therefore assume there wont be a dip after the divi either - find out tomorrow.
Given the strong rises in larger providers today, I would hope we see a rise before the week is out.