Member Info for NelsontheDog

Melodramatic - Moi!
I agree electric is the future and I do like the burning platform the announcement puts us upon. However there are a lot of issues to get through and I am not sure 15 years will be enough. We are a country that has had a third runway not being built for 30 years - but we will change our regs for driverless cars in 15? I agree and look forward to driverless cars but I have changed my view in the last couple of years as to the pace of change - driverless will produce incredible benefits to living in cities - in leafy SW London the average car is static for 98% of the time clogging up streets where it is parked.
As an aside if we reduce car production by 95% as we all take up an Uber or Tesla subscription - thats a pretty big impact to industrial production.

Moneyhawk,

I agree. I looked into getting an electric car but I dont have off street parking and i discovered that if I put a cable over the pavement (even with mat etc) I am not covered by car or house insurance and personally liable for any injury. To me it appears that the close of petrol and diesel is a good goal but they havent worked out the future yet - is it Hydrogen Cell or a significantly faster charging battery? I hope its the latter but the forces and heat control of fast charging batteries effectively means when you charge your car it is a ticking bomb...
I am not saying I am a fan but Greta is the most powerful person in the world in 2019 - she has brought the agenda to the fore - more significantly in corporates but obvs the politicians throw promises down the chute. Interesting times - has peak oil arrived? I think if it hasnt, it isnt far off IMHO.

GLA
NtD

Hi Leem,

"One wonders if there is ever any upside with this share" - that really is the question. We have done a concerted drilling programme and yet BOPD is almost what it was. We have new resources but nothing being produced yet. Largest gas reserve was the two year future about 5 years ago....
This share is so dead and yet the upside, the dividend and Hawkey's upbeat chants keep me in. But really, there has to be an upside in operations, then maybe the market will react.
Still holding but tbh at the moment that is as much about reading this share chat as it is to my belief we will spike the share anytime soon.

Good luck all
NtD

Always interestingb to get a disruptor view - adds to the opinions. The point you raise about P/E is interesting as it leads to how this company plans its next stage of expansion. Do we stay in miner mode and control all our projects - p/e 8ish or do we intend to licence the technology resulting in a much higher roce, and a move to services and a p/e more in the region of 15-20?
Personall I think this is a jam later element as we need to get the valuer of the projects but depending on the ability to protect the Intellectual property, the latter licencing mode is more attractive as an investor and reduces the likelihood of majors catching up in their own research activity.

Agree TC but always like to try and understand the landscape.
A really key update due - cash is 1 thing as we pay for purchase and scale ups, but also if we are on schedule or ahead on timings / production levels. The Shard analyst highlighted we were undercalling our processing capacity and i wonder if we have done the same on our Q1 copper outlook form Kabwe - 150mt - if we get ahead they were expecting 400mt in Q2 - so some difference. We also have the tailings we bought near Windsor plant, Chrome, PGM's so if on track will IMHO lead to a massive lift to price. - We all know that there is a massive upgrade in operating revenue and profit to occur and hence our investment - big difference in market view of share if it has now occurred. Fortunately Leon seems to so far have been adept at under-forecasting and over-delivering - lets hope he can continue as the quantity of projects rises.

Good Morning Manof,
Happy days indeed - that gap to NAV is comforting but v happy to see it reduced!... and furthermore I hope in the next two years that NAV will rise as the depressed London market rebounds and takes property prices up with it - I definitely have the rose tinted specs on this morning.

Good Morning.
Whilst low Chrome prices is never ideal, I presume that our Chrome cost of production is lower than that of the miners as we dont first dig it out the ground. Is that a correct assumption? - Does anyone have a view on the differential in cost? I suppose we do still need to move raw ore to plant - how does this compare to dig cost?. Also I presume our process of gaining chrome concentrate is as power reliant as the miner? or do we leach concentrate in a lighter power use?
If we are both cheaper and less exposed to power risk then happy days for the long term as other larger miners cut production first. Hoping that some of you, more savvy in mining can advise?
NtD

Welcome to you, RC,

I had the same view and now over 6 years in during which I reinvest the dividend, I have an overall ROI of 57% or annualised 8.55%. Not the flashiest share but as you say it doesnt cause much anxiety. Possibly the dullest share I have owned but I remain happy to keep going - dull steady rising divi paying stocks are the backbone of my smallish portfolio. Good luck to you (and therefore me..)
NtD

TC - IMHO the growth is not going to slow anytime soon - in store growth initiatives coming thick and fast and also snobbery gradually dropping that will see more customers find their way into existing greggs shops- eg Vegan and Veggie offers. Also there is still plenty of the UK where the Greggs has opportunity for new shops and I hope they accelerate shop openings. Finally, all that cash - I hope someone in Greggs is assessing a European bakery purchase to allow a new territories and a footprint to extend to new locales. Hence shareprice academic to me - a progressive divi and continued growth mean I have this as a retirement pick all being well.

The profit warning and subsequent fall in SP caught me out and as such I am still a holder despite the drop. The fundamentals for this share dont look of concern for the long term given the cash and the future growth potential if they can sort things out. In a quandary as to whether to cut losses or see if this can continue its recovery. Any progress update RNS's would be nice given the last shaky one and my fear is that absence of update indicates the progress is still slower than anticipated.
Any other holders thinking to sell or hold?

Looking back at the 1st half results - we paid down circa $60m in debt and we spent $28m on capital investment. We did however raise our capital spend forecast and as such I believe the capital spend will be circa 85m and thus is circa $60m more than the prior half - sorry to post my concern rather than going back and working it out quietly.

You could be right and it may be nothing - there certainly was more production than sales in the period. However, at a time of rising prices that would raise another question as to why we are holding more stock this year than last year. I would also expect any business, let alone one with new peeps in charge and added scrutiny as to the management ability, to reduce stock for the year end.

I dont suppose we will find out until the full results but appreciate the thought.

Results raise a little concern for me in regards to where has the cash gone. At the interin the net debt was $280m - in the results it is $280m. No improvement in debt position over the last six months. I sincerely hope we are looking at substantial capital outflow in regard to the 12mT upgrade but even if we had all of that $108m outstanding it leaves a gap. So where is the cash - have we paid a fine or settlement? If we had I would have expected an RNS. Have we lent someone the money? Anyhow I am a little concerned that the cash seems to have gone awol. Anyone else got a view?

Thx DK.

In regard to Monday - this is a quarterly production update and as such will only show the mined outputs. These outputs will likely be lower than normal due to the 55day upgrade carried out during Q4. Unless the format of the communique is changed, we will need to wait till 18th March when the full results are due.
I piqued my own curiosity around the upgrade costs to get to 12mT so went back to the interim report. FXPO need to spend an additional $108m to get to the 12mT capacity for the start of 2021, so not an enormous amount. The company also disclosed that at a cost of $150-$200 per tonne of increased capacity it can continue to build capacity to 20mT capacity from the 12mT level. In other words this is an amazing repeatable resource - again we "just" need to do some work to improve market sentiment towards the management of it.

Debt was a huge issue as any LT holder will attest and the easing of that led to the big gains we have experienced as the risk of going pop abated. I do not have to hand the capital cost of the upgrades to capacity planned but IMHO the debt level is not a key issue anymore. If you ask anyone in the market they still FXPO as toxic due to Charity issue, let alone the major Shareholders woes - most don't then check the fundamentals but rather then move to the next opportunity.

To change the backstory I would not be surprised to see an increase in the return of cash to shareholders in the results - I just hope that if it occurs, it is via share buyback and not increased divi's - A large buyback would certainly give the prices a kick in the pants. and not profit the Swiss taxpayer.

I have stayed invested here due to the positive cashflow form current operations. Assuming the payments suspension is a glitch and normal service resumes to the timescale, I would like to see a sustained buyback programme here - If GENL cannot get Bina off the ground it can return cash to us shareholders via buyback. Hopefully this could also underpin a steady rise in share price.

Peng, bruv. Peng
lol.

Hi Mr Trump,
I think most on the board would agree ref the upside - i definitely do! If only we knew the formula to light the touch paper under shares - we would all be much richer and spend less time gnashing teeth as we wait for the uplift we feel is due.

TBH Unlike many other shares I have had frustrations with - i think Leon and Colin have done everything right of recent to raise profile of share - 2 chances to light the wider market; an update on Windsor this week as promised to give details of expanded capacity referred to in the Shard note and the expected run of the 1mt new tailings to give the market an early appetizer as to the future cashflows here as we already exist; then next week we get the annual results with a full outlook for the upcoming year including the potential cashflows from Kabwe - a risked commitment to the returns we expect to be available following the project investments. If that fails to light the share price then its more waiting for me anyhow as the growth will lead to a return one way or another - even if share price becomes a frustration in the medium term. However I do believe we will rise - we have the in the moment metals in the PGM's to get attention backed by a now proven operational roll-out and derisking into Chrome and Zinc Lead and Vanadium.

In addition, Major miners know who we are and takeover multiples must be being thought of in these spaces - all the tailings technology in this share is worth what? - instant scaleability and a free gift of 70moz of PGM's in Tjate.
So two chances for a bounce in share price - takeover or market reignition - whats not to like!

Hi GeordieShores
As a fellow North Easterner I have been interested in Greggs for a number of years, but not happy with in price or short of funds when it was at a good one - I eventually bought in on the recent dip (as ever i didnt quite time the bottom but I still feel i got a good price - i intend to hold for a long time).
Coming back to your points, I moved to London a decade ago and down here Greggs is just as indestructible - the price point makes it a "no need to think" purchase decision and it is at a price point that the many many skilled workers rather than professionals can have as a weekly treat, or a daily lunch (its the cheapest daily lunch in central London by far). As With the roll-out of expanded hours, dinner takeaways and breakfast offers I really see this company as a massive growth potential - however imho the market doesnt grasp the growth potential just here in the UK. McDonalds beware as our marketing and branding keeps up its current onslought.
I am hoping to be here for the long term and would be interested to see if there are other European markets where it may have legs to continue the growth phase. Greggs will be well known in all the Eastern European workers in UK and if the price point could be maintained and the excellent branding efforts targeted I feel that international expansion is the long term story also - not necessarily Eastern Europe but the other key immigration skilled workforce rich countries of Netherlands and Germany in the first instance.
GLA

Thanks Well oiled,
A really good interview (as ever with Leon). I liked 2 elements. The first being a summary of the strategy to date with the intent to discover, then JV, then buy as we have at Inyoni - and the links that has given Jubilee to open new doors to business with the major miners. The second part that really demonstrated the potential scale was around the fact that globally 40% of tailings (i presume in relation to Chrome tailings and not all tailings) is discarded as it contains Ultra fine chrome - 40%! Given his enthusiasm for our UFC process that is a mind boggling opportunity.
Onwards and upwards.
NtD