Member Info for NelsontheDog

Agree with the comments made. I have held for a long time also and believe a re-rate is due.
I am a fan of the debt paydown strategy, and if not before, i suspect that the re-rate will be prompted by a resumption of a progressive dividend policy. If you want to be favoured in a cashcow industry, you have to return money.

2 factors i do think mean that the share price will never truly fly;
- share price will always lag others due to the coal association - many II's will not want to get into this for that reason and the impact on their ESG profile- other divi paying businesses are available.
- family ownership and capital risk- risk of forced dilution to minority shareholders (there has been no sign of this in the practises of the family to date)
However i am hoping this will become a cashcow and will happily take divi's as they resume - i reckon a year away at most - or take a payout if we are bought.

GLA
NtD

Hi Grace

A large part of my VAL investment decision was based on yours and others allowing me to understand at a layman level the products and their purpose so its an honour to have you address me on a post. Thanks to you and ALL the posters who are allowing me to gain some understanding of the share- very very happy to be on the journey and only trying to injct a little fun. Apologies if i annoyed anyone and thank you to Valuefinder for the Bang...
Win win win here for me so far; 1 - this board - i am really enjoying it; 2 - financial gain; 3 - the ability in some very small way to be a tiny part of this misery ending work and to partly provide rewards to the incredibly clever people who are driving these improvements in medical care.

lol

I am new to VAL and to biomed investments (though investing 20 years) but i have had an initial dabble in VAL, MTPH and TILS in the last month

All very interesting and really active boards are great so thank you all. Up on VAL by about 80% but down TILS and MTPH so only marginally up. Enjoying the journey so far - i do enjoy the fact that win or lose these companies are improving the welfare of our global community.
Only downside (and what prompted me to write now is the proliferation of Boom! - or should i say premature Boom! (premature enunciation :))
Can we keep the boom for 201 results if it goes up 100% -might i suggest the use of Bang, Rumble, murmur for those lesser (but still welcome) uplifts.

GLA
NtD

I understand your point but as a relatively new investor of circa 18 months i dont have that view - seen more than 100% growth in share price and still feel there is value to realise. IMHO LC has built a great team and found a way to commercialise their scientific skillset and over the last 2 ears has done this well enough to marginalise CB. The new challenge is scaling up this knowledge and skill set to have a team who can exponentially expand the number of projects without losing that initial competence and cohesion level. So far so good and will involve investment in some strong strong operational managers - hope they pay and get the top people rather than make do. This can involve a ruthlessness if the original team cant step up to larger roles - could be Leons hardest challenge - he strikes me as a the loyal type and those struggling need to be moved aside if we are to continue at the pace we have seen to date.

Not in our pond, but pretty sure Amazon and Tesla have II's....
As long as the company communicates clearly their intentions as to how they will increase shareholder wealth (as JLP have done so very clearly) then II's will invest if the company goals align and they can see the BOD is competent / skilled (LC track record is great). I would expect II's only concern would be ownership and potential dilutions that dont involve them.
IMHO growth is where this company should put its cash - its return on cash in the investments is superb - if they give me money at moment I would be really disappointed at their lack of ambition.
NtD

Hope your view is correct Warren B. I have topped up this morning with my trading cash as I believe the results should push a strong rise.
Find out Wednesday
GLA
NtD

Hi
Further to WTF comment - I ws reading board but not contributing - as I dont think I have anything to add.
I took a position here a small while ago. Very tempted to take the small profit on offer as its my trading element here - but resisting so far as the big investment people pile in.
Personally I quite enjoyed the major buyer episode - this is a board I quite like reading so lets not get all destructive on each other any time soon.
I dont have a strong view on my target but a little "gold fever" hitting me - what is the next likely rns other than holdings? Sale, joint venture? Any views? Also what caused the past huge spike?
NtD

lets be honest - the results are predictable. this is my favourite steady share - been invested 8 years or so. I believe it is due a rerate as for a dyed in the wool income share there is some really good growth bubbling under the share.
I was hoping some new eyes may look at the results given the growth - hence the push back into the 700's - lets see if thats the case. When you consider other divi's are suspended / cut / cover dropping due to earnings I dont see why this share is impacted and not at pre-covid levels or higher. So dull, but if the results call can keep analysts awake - 800p by year end?
NtD

Anyone got a view on tomorrow's results - my view is they will be strong and divi will be maintained if not raised. Hoping for a share price rise up to 700p ish.
GLA
NtD

Hoping we will rise tomorrow.

Iron price - Of recent world tries to spend out of recession - infrastructure positive - however could see a Europe and US reduction in new builds due to covid. However i believe we will announce further expansion funded by existing cashflow which will offset any weakening of the iron price - if thats the case then brokers are wrong. Still believe this will bounce up tomorrow. Originally i said towards 300p a couple of months ago and tbh i dont see anything that changes my view. If anything the lack of dividend on traditional business should be a positive here despite the ukraine and owner risk.

Ive said it before and still believe it to be true - the risks on FXPO are diminished when you look at the risks on traditional divi paying "safe stocks" - easy to say they will recover, but when? FXPO has 10 years of almost perfect operational performance and earns strong cashflow - easy to tempt an income fund manager in this day and age.....

relating to the Malaysia business? I realise it can only be provisional but would be good to know - i believe we are still awaiting regs approval but i was wondering if there had been a published timeline relating to this and the TESCO timeline following Malaysia approval?

In reference to the 8% - My main worry / weakness in investing is selling. So i use a number of ratio's to force me to sell / buy the right things (asset allocation). For my picked shares, I usually have about 20 to 25 positions of which 3 or 4 are aggressive growth stocks - if any single position hits 8% of the overall picked share portfolio, i sell back to 5% - forces me to take gains on my winners. I still have multi-bag profits on some shares but i now take profits as i go (TSLA, BVC and FLTR this year). I also allocate to risky v non risky shares and as such TSLA and BVC money ploughed into more dull divi paying shares (Greggs most recently).
11 years into my second stint at investing and asset allocation plus this is keeping me honest and seems to be working so far. by the by i sold tsla completely at 1400 odd dollars - overpriced (but i want to buy back into it if it corrects - worried it wont).
Apologies if this is too much info or not of interest to main board.
GLA
NtD

Hi QD22
I did the same - bought for the Cybersecurity and sliced at 100p meaning i am definitely in profit. I am staying put for now - IMHO the long term is still very positive.
Cybersecurity - same strong outlook - i think this is a massive area of growth in the economy as a whole and only more so as covid kicked more trade to electronic.
Medical - Obviously we have the now in covid, the probably next two years of covid also. But even outside of this - infectious disease budgets (traditionally quite small) will be bolstered and the multi-test kits this firm make look to be in a good position.
So may fluctuate but I am optimistic for long-term hence holding (i will slice again if it hits 8% of my portfolio but still keep presence)
GLA
NtD

not sure on the still feel we will bit at the end - lol

thanks for posting Maksym - surprised that isnt worthy of an RNS.
So capacity already up to 15mtpa - that is fantastic. The analyst view of reducing future cash flow over the next few years can now be challenged via increased capacity. Hopefully this in turn will lead to upgrades in analyst view. The fact we can invest in projects like this and still reduce debt is testament to the incredibly consistent production at FXPO over the last 6 years or so and the mighty positive cashflow being produced.
Still expect us to be net cash at results (or very close) and it will be interesting to see if there is further expansion of capacity announced.
Still feel 300p will be in the offing soon.
GLA
NtD
Still feel we will

Lets hope Berenberge Bank puts its money where its mouth is - I am bullish on this stock but I bow down to the £9.00 target. 900p! - hopefully some more positive tips to come...
GLA
NtD

CaveatEmptor - 100% Agree

Hoping the recent fundraising placements are behind us unless a mega project is in the offing. As long as JLP continues to build its positive cashflow I am happy (We have tremendous monthly positive cashflow now which for me would justify a rating nearer 5p). I prefer new projects to dividends given our advantage IP position may not be indefinite but crucially for either, LC needs to continue his delivery of projects - overall he has been fantastic at this but IMHO at present we have a couple of potential completer finisher issues floating about - Kabwe in particular. Hoping to see progress on these also to move from V Good to Great management.
NtD

Totally agree Jonah58 - Kabwe is the JLP shop window whether we like it or not. This is more important than future cashflow projections - its JLP's reputation on the line. Therefore we need to address the waste and wear a white hat, or we will be the black hat of the situation - politicians arent renowned for sharing the blame. We should now have a very healthy cashflow from PGM's and now Copper and we simply need to spend to get Kabwe underway - in another year the cash will be coming and the expenditure on Kabwe will be small beer compared to the opportunity the clean up will provide for the future - oh and of smaller consequence I will feel a lot better personally that the company works to eradicate the appalling suffering of the Kabwe community.

will show a big profit and imho we will become net cash. I am also hoping for an announcement of further expansion of capacity. The perfect result would be a removal of the re-restriction on Zhevago holding prior to the announcement. Either way I dont think 300p is too outlandish a target at that point.
GLA