Member Info for NelsontheDog

Quite a history of things the city dont like;

Good stuff - consistent cheap miner with capital being used now to increase capacity (can almost double from 12mtpa to 20mtpa over next few years if decides to spend and great distribution links - logistics owns port and railway.

The bad stuff in no particular order:
FXPO almost went bust - it had cash in bank that went bust - share price droped to about 20p but with strong iron market now about to become debt free.
The majority owner of fxpo (zhevago) is being pursued by Ukraine on charges (that he has beaten once) in relation to the bank and him apporporiating funds). Ongoing. Zhevago now less involved in the board on paper.
The company had a scandal with a chairity mis-using funds and we lost two directors and the auditors over this a couple of years ago. IMHO no real overhang on this one
Ukraine and Russia issue looms.
Ukraine instability of economy overall.
Fact that FXPO takes profits offshore (switzerland) and as such doesnt put as much money back into Ukraine (despite localised efforts to help community). This heightens risk IMHO that there may be nationalisation issues in the future (no sign as yet)
Dividend yield is great but Swiss head office means there is a 35% Divi tax added - you can get back if you have time / accountants to pursue claim.

However so cheap and as a nigh on 10 year holder i have to say the operation and business itself is incredible. In these covid times where safe comapnies like Greggs no longer pay divis and are bleeding money i fee the risk is overblown (even if there are a lot).
NtD

Anybody got a view?
I believe we will again have v strong cash generation, increased capital spend and hopefully net cash position announced. Would ideally then like to see a more regular divi policy announced to go forward.
SP wise I still reel at the PE on this share - it is risky for a whole number of reasons but the P/e level is spectacularly low.
Not for widows and orphans but the operational side of things has been flawless for a decade and there arent many better ROCE out there. £2 must be the adjust on results I would suggest IMHO.
Any other views?

Teamhanz, lol, we should redirect all the arguers to the LBG board - they love a good rumble (or grumble) on there!

Lovely chilled out vibe back here on the BB tonight - thank you all.

Grace, Adam - the science insights are gratefully received and thank you for humouring my questions - I was unsure whether to post but thought a little chatter on the share might pull the focus from the heckling.

Rightback, i look forward to hearing from you as we role out from here - you seem to have a great knack for calling the SP,

OB - really interested in the gold and silver - thank you.

Finally, the retrospectoscope - I bought one last week - its okay but I would have to say that i now worry I paid too much...
:)
NtD

Adam
Thank you again. Not intending to ramp - just getting the elevator pitch ready in my mind that allows me to move this to the LTH from the sharper end of my holds where i need to take some profits for September. Really appreciate you humouring my too simplistic view of things.
Ive done nothing to move this share let alone any real work within the company, but to simply have some small association to a drug story that can potentially reduce patient suffering in this space is something that would give me pleasure lasting far beyond the resultant riches (and their p**s**g up the nearest lamp-post). ;)
Cheers
NtD
Thank you again and

Hi All but esp Rhubarb(Adam) & Grace and any other science majors,

In regard to 201 it is the ability to act upon the cancer causing elements specifically (was it SrC inhibition?) that make this able to work without the wider side effects. About a month ago there was also talk of this being appliccable to Female cancers such as Breast and Ovarian (the one I have lost people to more than any other). Is that simple hypothesis that it would have effect on many forms of cancer fanciful or not?

Reason to ask is that if so and with knowledge of 50% effective in trial and lower side-effects does VAL201 not send a shock wave through the whole Oncology drug arena?

If thats yes, then we are getting excited about shiny baubles - wouldnt an existing Oncology drug major want to buy the lot to get patents?

I have obviously made this ultra simple, but hey, its a dogs life to see in black and white only...

Tradehobbs
Are you going to buy an exasketch with the profits you make here.
LOL
NtD

I would love to have an inside scoop on the strategy and pharma chats in hand
- already have 301 with Japan Pharma which we now presume is safe due to 201 links
- 201 now shows promise and needs JV
Big pressue on Japanese pharma to show hand before others get chance to disrupt their link to Val
Exciting times before the year closes out it would seem.

Thanks Adam

Appreciate your view and the time you took to post.
I have spent 20 years heavily involved in negotiations and bids / agreements in many sectors but mainly services and completely agree the point on EI and engagement / management pragmatism / personality trumping logic often.

Thanks again
Nelson

Rhubarbmk2 - Adam,

Could I ask your view on JV partnership development - the business rather than the science side?
Given our results how do JV processes progress? If 2 interested parties will a large pharma allow themselves to compete, or would it be more likely thatr they shuffle the pack and pick another asset to develop? If 1 JV partner - is there a typical time to come to agreement?
Interested as this does relate to future potential cash raises - new strategy relies on JV - therefore all comes down to that JV agreement negotiation and i would expect a large pharma to really push for a hard agreement as VAL is stuck between a rock and a hard place due to cash.
Do you have any insight / experience you can provide on this side of things you would be willing to share?
Kind regards
Nelson

Illaquens
"A4 MRE" - is there a version of this in English?

NtD

100% agree lad,
IMHO BB's allow you to quickly grasp trends and key points - need to distinguish between the history, the known future, and the speculation. I found ST and Mr Nation useful on first two points but never pay too much attention to the speculation.
If you choose to press the button, you have to celebrate your wins or decipher your losses.
GLA
NtD

Teamhanz
made me laugh (but I hope you are correct)
What is for sure is that it will take big news to get us rising significantly. Lots trapped here will sell on rise and newbies will take profits.
Many rumours and much speculation but the one thing we all agree on is that this share moves fast and often!

Really enjoy this board but finding it difficult to filter the sane from the codswallup over the last couple of days - certainly not dull
GLA (on the holding side)
NtD

Fair Points Shadow
However Dr Dilly DID add to the hype pre-results and as such the BoD has some hand in the current wind down - wehter this was naive or not time will tell.
Some good advice here and i agree dont panic -decide your strategy again from now - sell, keep, whatever; but time to regroup and man up.

I have never seen a share rise and then fall so quickly. No idea where this will hit balance point, but we are back to lowly Market cap - implies VAL drugs are a busted flush - however I am not sure that is the case.
Suspect we are going lower until there is a positive newsflow (of which there are potentially many);
- Further comments on VAL201 next steps - is there any interest from big pharma to take forward - even news of initial contracts post results would dramatically stabilise the share at this stage?
- BC201 update
VAL301 Japan pharma progress
VAL401?

If we feel that the drug pipeline is good, then this is the time where our management need to prove their metal - hopefully that is being worked. I have seen a lot of positivety to Dr Dilly but we need to see some traction on next steps to ensure there wasnt enthusiasm over management - I didnt take as much profit as i otherwise would pre results primarily due to her activity and positivtiy in statements VOLUNTARILY offerred in the run up - hopefully this faith will be rewarded and the activity is occurring. Dr Dilly is hopefully not letting us down and cant control the market (though she did fan the pre result hype and may in hindsight regret those bullish statements).

Good Morning all,
New to this board and the relatively new to this share. Does anyone have a view of the interim results date - usually they fall in late September but I cant see any date on the website or on Investegate.
I would very much appreciate any info.
Atb
NtD

A little disappointed on the lack of reaction but if results are good as they are value will be realised - hoping today for 70p+ as sellers clear but as Mazik says, buy the company at this price if you are large pharma - why licence!

This afternoon feels like I'm on a plane heading for two weeks in the Caribbean - its going to be great when we get there and then the turbulence starts. Deep down i know we will get there safely, but each moment is gut-wrenching and the fear is definitely right there. Must keep busy / think of those lovely drinks on the beach - Safe plane, goooood plane!!

Agree all posts on holding firm. At the back of my mind when I have doubts (today) is why would you be so upfront and centre releasing a new strategy etc and so bullish in action as MD if you didnt believe you had the results - you would have to be an idiot! - or confident of results. Dr. Dilly does not strike me as an idiot so I am stating put.

Hope so Vicjain
After a lengthy dip will also aid to prise shares out of the cautious as we rise again later (hopefully).
After 3 days on the charts it feels like we are known, traffic high and buys and sells are amongst those already looking while we wait for news so maybe a quieter day.
Hope for results on Monday to avoid more days like this - the pre-match blurb can sometimes be too long and as such going to chill out and stay put in my position.
GLA
NtD