Member Info for NelsontheDog

To date I have been of the belief that we wont be a takeover target as too small. However in 12to 18 months we will be a top copper producer and if Copper and platimun pricing stay high, given the freebie of Tjate - we could easily become a target for takeover - especially so given we are greener than a traditional miner. In the meantime very happy here and hoping for double digits very soon on SP. Once copper earnings in the mix I would expect our SP to be 25p+ but with re-rate of p/e to reflect our proven sustained growth rate I think 50p achievable in next 18 months (by end of 2021 with a fair wind) anyhow so a lot to like.

I agree OoO,
If we can lock in a brexit deal i am hoping for a FTSE wide uplift. On the topic of FXPO, I was very interested to see in the last report that we had produced a 67% pellet. Does anyone know if any other producers are doing this? We are awash with cash and the 65% pellet premium has seen us do well - if we can start with a 67% supercycle (it is more environmentally friendly in emmissions and transport costs) in addition to upping our volume produced we can raise our return despite the markets bleak risk view.
IMHO still expecting £3 and strong divi flow even with capital outlays to expand. Happy days are coming.

The Share price, RB ;)

I still take at face value the ability of the new BoD from those on the board - need to see validation to say it myself and hopefully that is to come soon and we just need to be patient and allow them to progress.
Apart from delivering a drug and making some money, we really need the price to go upwards to remove the pests from the BB - the fleas that appear on these boards at low points; talk about kicking a dog when they are down...
I am of the opinion that BB's are a small group - i still dont feel that deramping drops the price as we are such a small group. Also what sort of person spends time dwelling in the discomfort of others? Antoflea?
Atb
NtD

@Trendz - i agree your points - but i am in the Choir! We need that validation news to light the litmus paper and then we will have a dramatic re-rate. When you have multiple projects I hope haste is being used to get one accross the line - it doesnt need to blow the doors off commercially for the first deal as long as it gives us 2 years breathing space and a ticket to being a mid tier pharma. Once that door of sustainability is opened Duncan and co can do the rest.
I originally bought DDDD to trade on IBS build but thank you to you and all on here as BB made me go and do a little more research and now happily resigned to this being an investment opp not a trade - just impatient for the news to come.

It is puzzling as to lack of upticks on what we feel is a very strong share. I suppose the one key points are that we are a long way from revenue generating - therefore no immediate hurry to take shares.
Following the Keytruda positive update, what would act as a catalyst would be a firm commitment from Merck towards Mrx118 (a payment would also reduce need for future capital raises). Effectively that would give a green light that we are going to derisk the journey to self sustainability without too much ownership change and given the 2000 patents and IBS at a strong stage, selling a large proportion of our first drug to Merck MHO would be good business in the scale of things.
ps Not looking good for my 350p by Friday.

The share element does look odd - £2k - might grow to even 10k by then...
....however presumably this is a simple act of good faith with the real returns being split for the next development of the drug as will be agreed in the susbsequent JV.
Good to see that we are out and about and able to do this but I was a little disappointed to say the least that it wasnt 201 301 or 401 news.

Great results - The eps was 0.94p and our share price is now 7.4p - p/e of 7.8.
Given that there is growth in revenue due for copper this year and the q3 earnings from platinum are circa 30% higher than last year, the share price and p/e seem a little mean. I get its a risky business in Africa but we have good financial profile, good operational delivery, strong cash generation and are delivering growth.
I thought we would hit 8p today but IMHO - I think the price should be in double digits early next year on the basis of what we already know. Hopefully we will drift higher from now.

For once we dont have to be patient - we will know the sensitivity of the content of the posters in 2 1/2 hours or less!

Welcome Splodge
These BB's are discussion boards, not decision making boards and as such rampers (those thinking we will go up), derampers (those thinking we will go down) and the fillers (like me here) all welcome for me (if not I can leave or filter so happy days). Especially welcome if pushing a hypothesis - I enjoy hearing others views and my only humble request would be to not repeat again and again - but again i can always filter.
I feel the BB's are currently so aggressive - most posts are fluff with the occasional new info from a few superb posters.
I value all the posts as it gives me a general "health of the noise" even when they are drole (like this).
All welcome imho
NtD

masking =making. Apologies for typo.

Iceman
Thanks for sharing your TA and masking is your BB Slider (co-pilots) - hoping we get the 28p this week or even better knock it out the park with some good news flow.
NtD

Viper - its the US interest that I think will serve as the catalyst also. Great results are one thing, but add some smooth comms and the fairly easy to simplify into a pitch (but actually extraordinarily complex) comparison to the already listed US equivalent and there may be some II's biting. Just my opinion but if you bite you dont wait for the NASDAQ listing (thats a PI type limitation) - the Gods of Finance easily stride the globe from their hunched positions over keyboards in the spareroom. Its this hyper turbocharged push that takes me from the sensible getting to 200p target to the rarified air 350p.
Anyhow must stop now before I am called a ramper rather than a humble dog...

Really like DDDD and keen to hold for some time but I am also genuinely excited on what next week holds for this share and I am going to humour it here on the BB (isnt that what these BB's are for). IMHO we would not be doing a presentation if the results were simply satisfactory - we would have stuck to posters. The big Science names involved in our study would care too much for their rep's to do a presentation simply as a commercial bluster on a bland result- hence my excitement.
Therefore I am going to stick out my neck and say we are heading for a transformative result and I will open the next Friday close price at 350p.
I look forward to you mocking me for my conservative forecast next Friday - lol.
ATB
NtD

Looking at the Liverpool trial and the general belief that mass testing will be required, any business with a test will make money as long as they have control of their manufacturing capacity. Wo BVC will sell what they can produce - I am not 100% certain what our manufacturing capacity is, or where it is based. Anyone have a view?
I still feel this share is a bargain at this price- both cyber and medi sides of the business are expanding - happy days imho
NtD

is Monday coming. If you recall a couple of weeks ago DDDD stated they would have three posters on the Oncology updates. To my mind that means an RNS on Monday 7am at the latest as there will surely be price sensitive news in one of the posters. Thats the expected newsflow in the short term and I am really surprised we are not seeing a rise in anticipation of positive results (you dont expand your posters from the max expected 2 unless there is something of promise).
I am a little worried (or maybe disappointed) that the share isnt responding to this speculatively - on the balance of probs we have positive news within the week.

I sincerely hope it is a rerate reflecting the risks relative to the rest of the market. Yes we live under the wing of an Oligarch in a troubled country but if you dont like risk, invest in Lloyds, Greggs, Marks and Spencers to be safe?........doh!
if this is the new normal, anything with services is suddenly showing a huge risk - however Iron still in strong demand and we are world leading at digging and distributing it as reflected in some very chunky dividends.

for me (and I think many others) has been to simply hold throughout the period. So much confusion and as a result chatter on the board but all a little dull. Look forward to next week to resume the new normal (unless there is a scorching hot rise - seems unlikely). Takes all the confusion out of it, doesnt it.

Whimax

I am not a shorter and i am well out of my depth on the mechanics of it so will pipe down after this last comment...
If i borrow your shares to short, then either you get the Accustem divi or if i am deemed the holder as the borrower then I get them and return the Accustem divi to you the borrowee. The Accustem entitlement must be with one or the other wouldnt it? Now if the short is on the TILS SP and the divi causes that to drop, happy days for the shorter?
Should have mused to myself - i think I am a pretty good investor on balance but shorting holds no interest to me other than lots of talk it may drive a spike here this week.

Hi
Just a thought - according to the RNS isnt the Accustem shares a dividend. In effect therefore, why do shorters need to close? Their short is in TILS and it will likely drop as we split (though maybe not given the lack of rise here). Could be a very clever short play in that there is no urgency for them to close today.
Still hope we have a rise prior to split - i would like to reduce my holding slightly.
GLA
NtD

seems more likely today. I have been genuinely unsure whether there would be a rush to buy due to the subsequent Accustem illiquidity in the short term. I would really like to see us get well into the 200's (ideally 250p) to give a buffering to tils sp after the split. I am not trading but I do think I have one of the highest averages on here having bought on the spike at 185p so its nice to start to see a paper profit.