Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

Thanks Comertoes and agree.

This is all or nothing hence my surprise at people taking about £2 a share as being end game if it plays out as planned. This is either 20p or £15. It happens or it doesn’t.

Like you my money is where my mouth is with a nholding of 75,000 shares at an average of 34p.

At the moment there are no reasons whatsoever why this won’t go ahead. Ombrina Mare provides a nice bit of security north of here to limit any downside, hence my surprise that anything he would look to short this.

Chart days a large breakout is going to occur some time soon too.

Ollisky...... so tell me what elements of the fundamentals playing out here that you believe are without substance?

Premier agree with me hence lookingfor FID. y end of year and sanction by next June.

The supply. Jain contractors agree with me hence they’re signing LOI.

The Banks agree hence Standad Charter are pulling together the final pieces of the financing package.

The UK Givernment supports it hence the Export Finance Export Guarantee element.

And the law firm taking the Rpublic of Italy to arbitration under the Energy Charter agree.

So tell me why what I have stated is fantasy an dlest have some facts. Clearly another short under water.... it’s going to get painful for you too in a few weeks time. Can’t wait!

Actually I’m a Banker with over 30 years experience so you might like to consider retracting your comment Bancos. So tell me what element of what I have stated is drivel? I’m fascinated to know given its all stated in Premier’s reporting and adhere to the reporting rules.

It’s blatantly obvious that you’re short and underwater here. Life is due to get very expensive for you so enjoy the next few weeks. The clock is ticking.

The best bit is that as your position empties your pockets, it fills mine.

All,

Apologies for the typos and omissions.. I was on my phone.

Phase 1 is expected to produce 30k barrels per day to us. Life of field costs = $35 a barrel

I fear a lot of people will bale when they see £2 and then sit back and watch the share price go ever higher. Do the maths and look at the fundamentals here before you jump out with a few thousand in your pocket.

This is the real thing. Not the market trying to put a value on a find and playing guessing games as was the case before.

Bootledodger.

With the greates respect, I think you may be slightly underestimating the potential here.

There are circa 450m shares in issue.

Once we start the pump phase 1 we’ll be barrels a day. Life of field costs suggest $35 a barrel cost so at $75 a barrel we’ll be making $1.2 m a day or $438m a year or in sterling £359m.

That gives you earning per share of 80p which on a Price Earmings Ratio of 12 (less than the market average) makes the shares wither £9.60.

Add in phase 2 which increases production to 40k barrels per day, a success at Isobel which will be redrilled as part you’re f the development of Sealion and the Ombrina Mare case and so long as oil holders up, the share price is like,h be north of £15 a share.

You also have Helen and Elaine to keep things moving forward on the exploration front.

Only thing stopping this is an oil price collapse or us getting taken out at a stupidly low ball price, otherwise the sky is the limit here. Best share I ever owned.........

Great spot Mogger and a huge thank you for posting the link.

For this who haven’t scanned the Bristow Updatestates that ‘This quarter I would like to announce that we signed a letter of intent with Premier Sea Lion for a long-term contract that covers the full lifecycle of the field and this begins in fiscal 2021 and it's a 20-year or up to a 20-year contract‘.

This is going to go ahead as sure as eggs is eggs my lovlies. It’s just about being patient from here. This time next year Rodney.........

Good set of results today and just one year until PPI can be consigned to history.

Further good news tomorrow is likely in the form of an increase in interest rates which of course super charges Lloyd’s earnings. At these low rates they are unlikely to lead to larger impairments so should be a positive.

We may well see a bit of rally on the back of today and tomorrow.... fingers crossed.

Rockhopper’s case is a particularly strong one and quite unique so if you have the time I suggest you refer to the 80 page document which is a study of the treaty. It refers to the Rockhopper case on numerous occasions and highlights it as a potentially huge claim.

In reality, o other country bar Italy has been stupid enough tsk let a company invest heavily in a project and to then change the rules effectively making the original investment worthless.

It will be a bit of a rest case however I for on will be shocked if we don’t see the $40m back plus at least $100m of lost profits. With oil at $70 plus it’s likely that be a long t more than that!

DD77, neither UK or Italian law has any jurisdiction or influence offer the case.

This is an international treaty and it allows energy companies who are screwed over by governments to recover the value of their investment in a project and also the profits they would have expected to make. End of!

Ovets.

Call me optimistic but having read the whole thing from cover to cover, it is very clear that Rockhopper have every right to sue for lost profits and not just the value of the original investment. Indeed the publication makes this very clear on page 81.

Despite it being anti the ECT, th study does a fantastic job of filling me with excitement as time and time again it uses Rockhopper v Italy as an example of how an energy company and its shareholders can make a small fortune from a state which breaks the rules.

Roll on next March! Should be worth a 40p a share rise if we’re successful.

Fantastic find Mogger. Thank you

Hey Comertoes... that is actually a very good point and probably spot on.

The fact that he is posting so many times each day suggests that he is being eaten up hour by hour and is a very scared little girl.

With FID, Ombrima Mare and all the stuff going on in the background re PMO signing contracts, this could be life changing for us all and hopefully for Bancos albeit in an inversely proportionate way! Lol

With a name like Bancos and having only joined very recently, it’s pretty obvious to me that we have a Spanish speaking Argentinian who is either hacked off at the recent departure of his country from the World Cup or lost an uncle on the Belgrano.

He demonstrates little or no understanding of what is happening re Rockhopper but has a cross to bare hence his seeking to de-ramp the share at every available opportunity like a broken record.

Frankly Bancos, if you believe in what you are saying, go short on a CFD for 75k shares and you and I can go head to head and see who is sitting on the profit 12 months from now.

My position for 75k shares was opened at 34p. So put YOUR money where your mouth or STFU.

You’ve become somewhat irritating, not because of your bearish stance but because you clearly lack any discernible knowledge of the oil industry and a Rockhopper / Premier.

PMO remind me of an iceberg in respect of Sealion.

On the surface there appears to be little interest or focus but look beneath the waves and it’s full steam ahead to th spontaneous that it appears that be an almost forgone conclusion with the financing simply a matter of when rather than if...

It’s a great challenge however if you run through the holdings, they currently have 3.5m shares between them and a further 4 million options were granted to Sam and Stewart in April of this year.

With that kind of exposure, a share price of £5 gives them £35m between the directors plus what ever options the others have..

Their response would probably be why on earth inbest hard earned cash when you already have that kind of exposure?

Nosugar....to be honest, even a share price of £5 only gives a market cap of £2.2bn for a company which will be making £350m profits a year plus whatever value Isobel reveals once re drilled and properly understood. Remember it contains a 400m column of oil and is likely to be bigger than Sealion and yes folks, we own 64% of it and 100% do Susan and Helen.

So here’s the maths assuming oil at $75 a barrel and a breakeven price on extraction of $35 ie profit per barrel of $40 once the oil is flowing

Rockhopper receive 30k barrels per day or $1.2m a day once production starts. This increases to 40k barrels per day when phase 2 cuts in or $1.6m. Suggests profits of £1m per day sterling which is of course translates to £350m profit per year.

450m shares in issue will deliver earnings per share of around 80p. Price earnings ratio market average of 12 and you have a share price of £9.60.

Add in Isobel and a high oil price and £15 a share is very doable.

Sell out early this time around at your peril. With FID imminent, Ombrima Mare next spring, oil north of $75 , Isabel to be drilled as part of the development and production over the horizon, this has the potential to run and run and run making those who have entry points under 40p very, very rich over a 3 to 5 year view.

Anyone selling now after all this time could be living in regret for the rest of their lives.

It always amazes me how people can not understand market caps and think that £1 is a good price here.

This has a minimum of £5 written all over it excluding Isobel so long as you take a 3year view.

Sell at your peril........

Interesting to note what they actually include in their statement:

“Standard Chartered is a leader in the field of Energy project financing and has played a significant role in a number of bank and export credit agency led financings in recent years.”

Nite th inclusion of the export credit agency. Why include this? Because clearly they’re expecting a large part of the finance to come from the UK ECA.

This in my opinion is why they are so relaxed re the absence of the need for another company to farm in.

Not to mention £100m plus from the Republic of Italy by that s time next year courtesy of Ombrima Mare..

Isobel was drilled in the last round of drilling by the infamous Erik Raude rig which was a complete and very expensive disaster. It constantly suffered from operational and mechanical problems and almost bankrupted FOGL which was subsequently taken over Rockhopper.

Isobel was drilled but the rig failed to deliver a proper analysis however, well reached a total depth of 3,014m below sea level and reported a column of oil of more than 480m.

Pre-drill estimates had put the quantity of oil in the area in the region of 500 million barrels. Rockhopper reckons that the North Falkland basin could contain up to one billion barrels of oil on the back of this.

As such, when Premier start to develop Sealion, as part off the drilling required to bring the field online, they’ll go back fr a proper poke around Isobel to properly understand what is in there.

If as we think, it’s bigger than Sealion, Rockhopper shares are likely to jump by an awful lot given we’ll already be on the road to production.