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Re 750m from the Banks .. this is likely to include an element from the Government in the form of Export Finance Gurantees

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-export-finance-success-stories

Redon, I looked at this and identified 28m too.

28m appears to be the figure in the historic RKH updates etc so your analysis would appear to be correct.

Absolutely right Ovets,

Fully funded, cash rich (and potential very cash rich on the back of Ombrina Mare) sitting on a huge oilfield operating in an area where the tax rate is just 7% royalty and 26% corporation tax, half that of the North Sea!

It really doesn’t get any better than this once Premier push the button.....

And the 80% tax take by Mexico is exactly why PMO will ultimately prove up and sell Zama. Sealion’s tax rate is just 9% Royalty and 26% Corporation Tax.

Given we have 60% of Sealion we’ll also be getting more barrels per day out of there so it’s a far more compelling proposition.

Supply shortfall

Mr Hess said the problem was that global spending in conventional long-term projects had collapsed. This is setting the stage for a serious crunch in the future.

The world needs new capex investment in oil and gas of $580bn each year to stand still. It spent just $350bn in 2016, $370bn in 2017, and $410bn in 2018. The effects of this shortfall are not yet visible in world supply. They soon will be.

Majid Jafar, head of Crescent Petroleum in Dubai, said natural attrition was relentlessly eroding future supply. “There is chronic under-investment and a natural decline of 3m to 4m barrels a day. We need to add a new Iraq each year,” he said.

Mr Jafar warned of a coming supply crisis within five years. The paradox of oil today is that even though the spot market is well supplied and Opec is holding back output, spare capacity is actually at wafer thin levels.

As we all know, the chronic under investment when oil prices dropped, lead to the lowest amount of oil to be discovered in a year since 1915 a couple of years ago.

I’ve been warning of a supply shock in the mid 2020s just when Sealion starts pumping fortunately for us. The Telegraph raises the issue again today in an interview....

Supply shortfall

Mr Hess said the problem was that global spending in conventional long-term projects had collapsed. This is setting the stage for a serious crunch in the future.

The world needs new capex investment in oil and gas of $580bn each year to stand still. It spent just $350bn in 2016, $370bn in 2017, and $410bn in 2018. The effects of this shortfall are not yet visible in world supply. They soon will be.

Majid Jafar, head of Crescent Petroleum in Dubai, said natural attrition was relentlessly eroding future supply. “There is chronic under-investment and a natural decline of 3m to 4m barrels a day. We need to add a new Iraq each year,” he said.

Mr Jafar warned of a coming supply crisis within five years. The paradox of oil today is that even though the spot market is well supplied and Opec is holding back output, spare capacity is actually at wafer thin levels.

Can I suggest we sort this problem once and for all and simply filter Bancos with immediate effect? He’s the first I have filtered in 30 years of investing however I refuse to have my valuable time wasted by someone who appears to be here for no reason other than to wind people up.

Let’s be clear, debate is good and healthy but then there are the trolls and timewasters who simply have to be depends to the dustbin. Bancos ticks all these boxes so into the bin he must go.

Hey Nigoil.....circus boys? That’s a big assumption. They could be circus girls or even pre op trans hence the hormones are paying havoc with any rational thought? Just a theory but it does seem to stack up when you read the posts...

I have a brain not a crystal ball labongus. June 2019 ie six months should have us all very happy people though

Talking of Mystic Meg, where is Borgo these days or did someone take him out the back of Sharkeys and punch his lights out?? :)

Hi Bulent .... 6 months. End June this year

If you do the Maths with Sealion Phase 2 plus the other assets pumping Premier are a 200k a day producer.

That's big boy output of 73m barrels per annum and profits running into the billions. Share price here could be off the scale if the oil supply shock in the mid 20s happens due to the dearth of new discoveries over the last few years.

Tony Durrant knows what he is doing. Stalin had his 5 year plan. TD has his.....

Dark Knight ... PMO won't be striking any deal with Chevron. They can't afford it and have said as much. Trust me my predictions will come to pass.

The plan is obvious but they won't share it until the first part is confirmed.

For those who are interested it is as follows:

1. Prove up Zama
2. Sell it
3. Reduce debt to below $2bn
4. Recommence dividends
5. Develop Sealion

Simples!

Thanks Nigoil. Very kind.

I note from your posts that we are pretty much in agreement and speak as one on much of this.

For what its worth I was the one who predicted RKH would take it FOGL 4 weeks before it happened and was absolutely rubbished at the time. I therefore have form when it comes to predicting the future .......

Definitely one of their best efforts to date and totally in tune with my thinking. Interesting to see that like me, they believe Zama will be monetised effectively sorting their debt situation and enabling them to start paying dividends.

Make no mistake, today's Zama news may have made barely a ripple but its big for us and another tick in my task and activity list of things that have to happen for RKH to realise it's full potential and us to enjoy a 'goldilocks scenario' as follows:

1. Premier to prove up Zama - Tick
2. Monetise the asset thereby sorting out their debt issues and enabling FID for Sealion
3. Ombrina Mare success
4. FID
5. Sanction

Should see us North of £2.50 a share

6. Drilling commences with further work on Isobel - Confirms size of asset effectively doubling our resource
7. Production commences 2023 @ 30k barrels per day, with oil at $65 and life of field costs equating to $35 that's $900,00 per day profit or $328m per annum. In sterling terms call it £250m. With 450m shares in issue that's earnings per share of £0.55. Market average PE of 14 and you have £7 per share
8. Add on Isobel or an oil price of $75 plus and £10 would be a reasonable valuation

Stay patient guys ......the next 6 months should see lift off at last!

All coming together nicely now. Ombrina Mare kicks off soon with the lawyers trying their upmost to slow things up.

And with oil back to the sixties we’re now in ‘Sealion flies at these levels’ territory .

Things are shaping up very nicely....

The RNS is pretty clear from Premier.

There is no way given their financial situation that they would be chasing those assets. They have neither the money or resource to get involved though naturally they are keeping an eye things. Why wouldn't you?

As for a share sale to fund it ..... it would absolutely trash their stock and frankly Sealion which they control without the interference of others will double their production over night and it is virtually financed.

Its a game changer for us and them so long as the oil price holds up.

Zama will be monetised, the debt will fall below $1.5bn allowing dividends to resume and Sealion will get developed turning Premier into a 200k a day producer.

You read it here first.

Oil back at $60 and some chunky trades gone through today on the Buy Side.

At least we're not seeing a sell off ahead of the PMO update tomorrow so there are some positives.

Worth pointing out that a £300m settlement is 3 x the current market cap of circa £100m so a successful outcome is likely to drive the share price to around a pound.

Imagine FID happening in Feb / March followed by Ombrina Mare..........

Worth pointing out that OM should alleviate any risk of RKH having to raise extra cash from shareholders in the future.

“The stock market went to hell in December. And when it got there, it found that the energy sector had already moved in, signed a lease and decorated the place,” Tom Sanzillo, Director of Finance at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), wrote.

Good to see oil continuing to rally ...... Premier up strongly etc. Just wish I had waited to top up here :(

I'm not at all disappointed by the RNS. Certainly wasn't expecting confirmation of FID at this juncture.

It confirms much of what we know, doesn't suggest a delay beyond what has been suggested re FID and confirms that we have locked in what are excellent commercial rates re the LOI for a further 12 months which should be enough time ie should be signing contracts by the time they potentially expire

It also confirms early Feb for Ombrina Mare.

2019 still has every possibility of being a very exciting year for Rockhopper.