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Hey Paul

Interesting and all makes good sense given where we are and the oil price. Whichever way it pans out it’s all good news for us.

Makes the update on the 15th from Premier all the more interesting. I expect to see the shares start to rise as we move int November.

Great post Paul. Agree with nearly everything you say.

However, the only thing I would challenge is whether Premier want a farm in at this juncture.

If they can afford to do it and can secure the finance, why would they want to share the spoils and introduce another party / company into proceedings, loseing a degree of control and having to involve another party into discussions to advance the project?

I bet they would be spreading the risk but if anyone was going to farm in they would have done so by now. Personally I prefer to have the Export Gurantee. Only ahead of a farm in.

Hey Bigred

I have no more information than is in the public domain but I have a commercial banking background so a good amount of knowledge around how this works.

Suffice to say, if anyone believes that Premier would sign letters of intent with FSPO providers, sign contracts with helicopter companies, pay Standard Chatered to waste their time and money and that of numerous providers along with the Export Finance guys, move the entire project team from Catcher onto Sealion and enlarge that project team with the support of Rockhopper, advertise roles al OST daily etc etc just for fun on a project which has the potential to make Premier billions and that flys at anything above $50, and it is a no brainier.

People are exhausted from waiting but we’re nearly there now kids.

For me and on every level this is a no brainier. It’s no longer if but when. I personally believe that with oil at $80, any potential stumbling blocks are going to be easily overcome In the finance discussions. I think we’ll hear something on the 15th Nov. Like Ovet I believe thatPremier would like to prove up Zama and then monetise it.

Sealion is a game changer and with no other partners to have to rely on, Premier will have complete control and all the spoils of a billion barrel basin. Yes they have to share some of it with us, however I expect them to make an offer at some point when they can afford it. One way or another, we will all end up as Premier Oil shareholders.

You lot do make me laugh. Would loveto get you in front of a psychologist.

You’re acting like FID has been postponed when we haven’t even got to the November update from Premier Or the suggested year end target! It’s like having Marvin the Paranoid Android on here. Chillax. Go away, out your feet up and look forward to a very happy and exciting new year.

We Bankers like to cross all of our Ts and dot our I s when pulling together a finance package like this. It take a bit of time. As for PMO not wanting this, have a listen to some of the Tony Durrant interviews. He’s a good guy and knows that this will be company changing for Premier too.

Ralph reminds me of the old adage ‘don’t mess with things you don’t understand’.

I have no problem with novices asking questions in order to learn and share thinking but the assertiveness of his idiotic posts is extraordinary at times. He then blocks anyone who challenges him effectively locking himself into a snowflake generation world where he can put his fingers in his ears when he doesn’t get to hear what he was hoping for.

He really ought to stick to a savings account.... please feel free to copy my post to him! 😅

Have a look at the link and compare it with our 6 month chart. Look familiar?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/triangle-inspired-elliott-wave-short-151500633.html?guccounter=1

The 34p support level held and in doing so created the 5th wave. Incredibly bullish ..... suggesting a big break out to the upside is imminent.

Just a market sell off. It’s been coming and all boats rise or fall in a storm. Premier down massively too. Just see it as a buying opportunity. I bought a stack last week at 38p so am sitting on a near 25% loss in a week! It hurts like hell as I could have been filling my boots today but nothing has changed here.

The money will come out of the market and then be re invested in new sectors and better prospects like us.

Davey, I think you’ll find this will go to double that level on FID. Anything below a pound will be a huge disappointment so far as I am concerned. Other companies with smaller fields have market caps of £750m plus so £1.50 to £2 is very doable over the next 12 months.

Ombrina Mare is then worth and extra 40p a share potentially and once work commences and they have a proper look at Isobel, expect another jump.

For anyone who has asked what the potential impact that FID is likely to have on the share price, have a look at Serica Energy to see the kind of impact a positive announcement can have on a share price.

Emerald, I personally don’t think Premier want or need a partner to farm in now. If they can afford to go this alone (which with vendor and export finance they can) they aren’t reliant on any partners where could potentially let them down. They therefore end up with have full control and along with Rockhopper can enjoy all the rewards which are likely to be huge and an absolute company changer.

If this isn’t going ahead then there are going to be literally hundreds of people sitting around twiddling their thumbs in all of these roles whilzt the helicopters contracted to support the project practise their flybys to keep them entertained.

All these years of waiting have made us all sceptics however our time is almost here .......this is going to happen folks. Just a couple more months..

Very strange price movements at the moment..... not sure I can explain what is going on today.

Premier are due to provide a trading update on the 15th November. Definitely one for the diary. If you’re going to be in then it is going to need to be in the run up to this.

My betting is that they’ll look to provide an update on debt reduction and will present some very bullish results along with confirmation of FID or at the very least a holding statement providing an update and timescales for the project.

My betting is that the run up to the 15th is likely that result in a a move up to the sixties with

Here’s the link to the RNS from Argos today. I think a number of people have rightly said that all the Falklands oil will end up being owned by one company.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/ARG/13816643.html

They are effectively stranded with only Rockhopper and Premier their to do any kind of deal. Premier should pretty much be able to name their terms. There are no other suitors. Beggars can’t be choosers and with a market cap of under £10m Premier can pick up Argos for peanuts at a time of their choosing. The only alternative is RKH picking them up following a succesful Ombrina Mare however I expect Premier will move long bare that.

I don’t disagree Ralph, however for me the oil price rise is the game changer here. I don’t think anyone saw the price of oil reaching thieve heights coming in their wildest dreams. (Premier certain didn’t in even their most optimistic projections).

In other words if they believed that they could deliver a positive FID at $69, delivering it at $85 with debt falling at a faster rate than anyone could have envisaged should be a formality.

Tolmount comes online in 2020 and capex is just £120m so any idea that this will stretch them and is unaffordable now is rubbish.

Yes I get they are hedged with some of their production currently but a lot isn’t and as stuff rolls off they will be hedging at much higher rates. Sealion is the natural next step in the company’s evolution.

I remain supremely confident here. For what it’s worth I was the one who foretold that Rockhopper would take our Falklands Oil and Gas 6 weeks before it happened so I do have some form! :)

I’m genuinely surprised that people should question Premier’s appetite for Sealion. It is a potential game changer and has the potential to catapult us into the big time. In my opinion and having watched him present on a number of occasions Tony Durrant is keen to make this happen.

We all know about the huge amount of work, contracts, environmental analysis, negotiations with the Falklands government, hotels, helicopter contracts and now the finance which is moving into its final stages and of course the movement of the Catcher team to the project. If anyone thinks that Premier are doing all this for fun or to get Rockhopper on the cheap, think again.

The reality is that Sealion will ultimately turn us into a 200,000 barrel a day company which at $85 a barrel means we will be making $10m profit a day or $3.6bn a year or £3bn a year. Makes the now £2.4 bn of debt which is falling fast look like pennies.

Premier would have EPS of £3 a share which on a PE of 12 would make us worth £36 a share. Does anyone seriously believe that the Final Investment Decision wont be made in the next few weeks? Personally I am praying it happens.

Our only risk here are is oil dropping back to the forties......

I’m genuinely surprised that people should question Premier’s appetite for Sealion. It is a potential game changer for them and has the potential to catapult them into the big time. In my opinion and having watched him present on a number of occasions, Tony Durrant is as keen as we are to make this happen.

We all know about the huge amount of work, contracts, environmental analysis, negotiations with the Falklands government, hotels, helicopter contracts and now the finance which is moving into its final stages and finally the movement of the Catcher team to the project. If anyone thinks that Premier are doing all this for fun or to get Rockhopper on the cheap, think again.

The reality is that Sealion will ultimately make them a 200,000 barrel a day company which at $85 a barrel means they will be making $10m profit a day or $3.6bn a year or £3bn a year. Makes them £2.4 bn of debt which is falling fast look like pennies.

Premier would have EPS of £3 a share which on a PE of 12 would make them work £36 a share. Does anyone seriously believe that they don’t want this as badly as we do?

Our only risk here are is oil dropping back to the forties..

Premier are due to provide a trading update on 15th November .......

Hey Rookie,

A good analysis in my opinion which echoes the following chart and technical analysis which you can view via the following link.....worth revisiting in the context of the urrentoattern which is emerging.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/chart-week-promising-trade-low-risk-entry-point-ii506818/

Oil up another 2% currently trading at $86.5 a barrel

If conversations re the financing are still going ahead they will be sitting their with scatter charts plotting each scenario for Brent and finding that even the most optimistic scenario for Sealion is under shooting the reality out there in the market.

On this basis, it has to be a done deal as everyone around the table is going to be falling over themselves to lend. I think FID will come earlier than people expected. Being out of here now is an extremely high risk strategy.

I expect the Rock to open at well over £1 following THE RNS the market have been waiting for all these years.......... and remember I’m a banker!

And the buys are outweighing the sells day after day. Somethings up. Not sure how much longer they can hold the share price back for or why they might be doing it

May gap first thing tomorrow unless some uncrossed trades appear after the closing bell.

All the stars and planets are aligned for them to finally push the button. If we don’t get FID by the end of the year I’ll be absolutely flabbergasted. Make no mistake, Sealion is a company changer for Premier and completely under their control unlike Zama which will require agreement from multiple partners and will take years to finance and mobilise.

As anyone who knows the EU will confirm, it’s a lot easier to manage a project as a partnership than have multiple stakeholders with their own ideas of what should happen.