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Falks, withe the inflationary pressures we’re going to see as a result of the rise in the oil price and the potential fall out for sterling from Brexit and need to support it or import yet more inflation, I personally think we will see interest rates at more like 2%l

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-Industry-Needs-Large-New-Discoveries-Very-Soon.html

Got to put your money where your mouth is Falks :)

Just bought another 18k at 8.15am this morning to take me to 100k shares. That’s me done here now re completion of my position at average price of 35p.

Not sure how much longer they can hold this back for as over the last 3 to 4 days the buying has been outweighing the selling considerably and they’re surely going to need more stock soon.

Great post Ovets. I’m going to be selling a slug of Lloyds (going nowhere until after Brexit) Bank and switching it into the Rock tomorrow.

Agree that even amongst the so called expert commentators, there is some real confusion re the difference between Final Investment Decision (expected year end) and Sanction (expected by mid 2019)

As mentioned before, with oil at $83, Premier will be able to pay down the debt at rates far beyond even their most optimistic forecasts ie an expiration £250m per year making an earlier and positive announcement all the more likely.

We really couldn’t have had the run up to year end go better. Every single box appears to be ticked wth the exception, as Ralph has pointed out, of the share price.

Thanks Whackford but As per my post below I was able to see this.I wondered if there was anything else of value that you can share?

FWIW I have signed up online on a 12 issue trial so should be able to view myself come Monday hence having to ask.

Has anyone managed to read the Investors Chronicle piece from Friday on Rockhopper?

I know their rating was under review from when we reported a couple of weeks back and it looks like, they have put a ‘Buy’ recommendation on so it would be interesting to know what they have concluded..

Agree Ralph, it’s crazy! Utbth market isn’t rationale and it’s what gives us all the opportunity to buy low and sell high.

Every extra dollar on Olivia is an extra $40m per annum of income to Premier which makes their ability and appetite to sanction Sealion and get it producing ASAP increase. If you look at their financial assumptions, most of their hedging as at $69 so they are gong to be around $300m per annum better off than planned if oil stays at this level.

They’re also going to be hedging at these levels wherever possible to lock the high prices in.

For my mind, FID and the associated banking package is now a 100% foregone conclusion.

Ralph, let me try again. Re-read my original post and then consider the point I was making which as that sometimes people, the market, analysts miss stuff.

We all assume that because we know a bit about the oil industry, the Falklands, Premier, Sealion, Ombrina Mare, FID, sanction, the oil price etc that everyone else does. But they don’t. A quite senior colleague at work (I work in a bank) commented re Rockhopper that it will never get developed because it’s too far from anywhere and the Argentina issue. Really clever and successful guy just below executive level. He knows nothing of the farm out, Premier’s involvement, FID by the end of the year. So too him with his limited knowledge it’s a no brainer to ignore.

Once FID happens and we get the attention of analysts, the public and the market things will move fast here. I suspect it will be on the news etc and the world and his wife will want to be in here once they get to appreciate the upside potential.

That’s what happened to Eidos. It’s what will happen here. The fact that they are different competes in different industries is irrelevant.

I think if you care to look back at the thread, all the insults and winding up came from Ralph and no one else. You provide him with facts and a link and you're a 'smart arse'. In which case how are you supposed to engage with him?

Unfortunately Ralph's inability to grasp the point leads to this kind of scenario time and time again. Its similar to watching a member of the public who is clueless try to represent themselves in court

I have to say though he is quite entertaining though. Do you remember the Harry Enfield sketch with the new pet which was actually a person from Newcastle? I wonder if the part was based on Ralphy? (Pet Name)

Ralph ....... it was Tomb Raider 3 released in Nov 1998....... they were starting to do a Hollywood film it was that well known. Eh and it was the third one so hardly new? In other words the market simply missed what it was going to do to Eidos and its business.

Here you go ..... opportunity to brush up on some facts via the link below. Oh and you're very welcome...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_Raider_III

Thanks for clarifying Ovets. Yes absolutely with you :)

If you're anything like me, you're seeing the case to invest in Rockhopper but cannot for the life of you understand why the market and everyone else is missing it, the shares are so low and indeed continue to completely discount Sealion pending FID.

For what its worth back in the nineties i spotted a similar opportunity that the market appeared to have missed in the form of a company called Eidos. For those of you who remember, it was the company behind the Tomb Raider video game and later film franchise. Back the it had just 16m shares in issue and was priced at £7 so had a market cap of £112m.

The PS2 was out and Tomb raider 3 was due to hit the shelves in November just before Christmas. the game was everywhere and with Eidos making something like £5 a sale and sales rates suggesting 20 million plus copies would be sold worldwide I started to question why the share price was so low. i read analyst reports and even rang the analyst at Merrill Lynch who frankly knew bugger all about the company despite being quoted in the press on numerous occasions rating Eidos as a buy.

I even took to standing in Electronics Boutique to see how sales were going and they were flying off the shelf. Everyone was buying it but the market was completely missing it.

Anyway to cut a long story short, Eidos made something like £42m the following spring and the shares just went ballistic ending up at £77!

My point? Sometimes you assume that the 'experts' all understand the opportunity and have somehow discounted it because of their greater knowledge however in reality they haven't and the herd don't arrive until it is literally staring them in the face. then they get over exuberant and the sky is the limit!

I continue to believe that Rockhopper continues to offer more potential than almost any share that I have looked at and held in over 30 years of investing.

The potential here is astronomic. Patience will reward the early bird here.

Ovets,

Have to disagree with you on this occasion. Hugely important but to be more specific, I view it in the context of just how high Rockhopper can ultimately go.

If as I believe will happen there is a supply shock then prices go higher so cashflow is 'super charged' and the likes of Isobel etc get developed quicker and are more easily financed.

Yes renewables will ultimately replace oil but in the meantime, there is likely to be a window of opportunity ie 2020 to 2030 when supply just cannot keep up with demand and looking at the economics, it looks like it will probably occur around the same time as Sealion is in full flow.

If oil is around the $100 plus mark then sea lion produces pits of circa £600m per year and earnings per share way above anything that we've discussed before.

I just have a real fear here that people who saw what happened on the discovery will bale at £2 to £3 and then sit with huge regrets as the share price drives inexorably higher.

A more macro economic view but highly relevant to our cause and anticipated time of peak production from Sealion.

The following is an article which covers off the impact of the dearth of discoveries worldwide over the last few years and the supply shock that this will bring about in the 2020s as existing fields start to run down with nothing like enough discoveries coming down the track to replace their output.

Imagine Sealion at $100 a barrel as phase 2 commences production let alone Isobel......

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Inevitable-Oil-Supply-Crunch.html

Interesting to hear Chris Oil suggesting that he has it on good authority that Standard Chartered are making excellent progress with the bank element of the funding making FID by year end a very real possibility..... ..

Ah ok Grey. My mistake.

The main thing is that an appraisal of Isobel is in the cards as part of the phase 1 development leading to phase 3 production at some point in the future.

Hey Falks I’m talking about phase 1 too.

See page 6 and 7 from the latest from both the Rock and Premier...

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/_site/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Investor-Pres-18-Sept-2018.pdf

Much

Me thinks that the MMs have been playing games here this morning and are holding this back.

This is going to go positive very soon and probably end the day up quite strongly. There’s a lot of buying going on today.

Falkland, yiu’re being extrenpmely conservative here even with the naughty change from $ to £ halfway through.

Phase 1 30k barrels per day. Life of field cost $35. Oil at $75 .... profit per barrel $40 so you’re understating by a third.

Add in a succesful redrill of Isobel which despite Grey’s challenge IS going to happen as part of the drilling campaign toget the field ready (you’re just going to have to trust me on that) and Ombrina Mare and the sky is the limit here.

At $80 premier are potentially paying their debt down by an additional £1m per day to plan making FID by year end inevitable.

Technically I’m seeing a reverse head and shoulders here. Whats not to like...l