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And if you look at the postings below Grey you will see that not only Ovets but also Marunam have identified with the point I was trying unsuccessfully in your case to make.

No Grey. You simply miss the point being made.

I guess you're a 'can't see the wood for the trees kind of person' that gets wrapped up in unnecessary detail. What do you do out of interest?

I have better things to do with my time then debate endlessly about something without a definitive answer. This is about sharing theories and ideas as to how things might play out. It's a highly imperfect science. The only thing you can achieve as an investor is to add up the pros and cons and make as informed guess as you can before putting your money on or taking it off the table.

I'm on here to share ideas and learn from others with background which I don't have. If you don't like what I put then put me on ignore. For what it's worth I was the one that predicted the merger between Rockhopper and FOGL around 5 weeks before it happened and had a number of people like you telling me I was a fantasist and the reasons why it wouldn't happen. Time will tell whether what i write is rubbish or worthy of note

We'll just have to agree to disagree here then Grey. In no way am I suggesting that we will get £1.2bn or should be even attempting to try and recover those kind of amounts.

What I am questioning is how the price of oil in any settlement is factored in. You appear to be wanting to have a debate about numbers we don't have access to which is pointless. You're wishing to debate the micros ..... my point is a macro more general one with a few numbers thrown in to demonstrate the extent to which a higher oil price would impact the 'future profits' part of the claim.

Ovets gets the point I am making perfectly. Ultimately the judges will make their decision at which point we will get to see whether the increased price of oil had an impact and if so to what extent? Whatever will be will be. No need to make comments like you have re trousers down. It's not helpful to any debate and your whole tone has been to try and catch me out for reasons that only you will know.

Grey,

Its a hypothetical debate I grant you. We can make uo each number in order to come up with what we want to respectively. No I haven’t accounted for tax. I have neither the time nor inclination to go into that level of detail in a hypothetical discussion.

My point is a simple one. With oil at a higher price than when the case began, it should / may have an impact on how much RKH ultimately win. I’m just interested to know what impact that might be. It certainly isn’t going to result in a smaller settlement so I see it as a positive.

We’ll get to find out whether it’s a dead end or a nice bonus come April next year. I’m looking forward to it as it could stick 50p plus on the share price. It will be sandwiched between FID and sanction potentially so could be yet another catalyst for the share price in what promises to be a fascinating and eventful H1 2019.

Hey grey,

Sorry for the delay in coming back to you. I was on the run this morning.

So here's the maths. 40 million barrels with say a life of field cost of $25 per barrel gives you total life of field costs of $1 billion.

My point is that at $50 a barrel total revenue from the field (entire life) would be $2 bn so potential lost profits of $1bn. However at $75 a barrel, lost profits are $2bn, The question therefore is what oil price is going to be used for the claim? When the action commenced, oil was significantly lower. It will be interesting to see how the final figure is arrived at.

Given the Treaty provides for future profits, there may be an opportunity to increase the claim. Time will tell. Either way it's good business,

Hi Takeit,

In a word ‘yes’ however of course if they were to take us over then they still end up with the costs of the carry. It’s just accounted for differently.

The only thing stopping Premier is their level of debt. There is no doubt in my mind that they would love to take us out eventually.

My betting is that we will all be Prmeier shareholders one day albeit I expect it to be an all share deal at some point and only when Sam and co can get something nearer our true value and it works for Premier too.

Grey,

You know very well that my use of the £1.2bn number was illustrative and designed to highlight how big a justifiable claim might be.

The point being made is the the potential impact on damages that might have been brought about by the big rise in oil since the claim commenced.

I have no idea what life of field costs might have been for Ombrina however I get the feeling they are pretty low in the scheme of things.

Grey,

It depends upon what oil price the arbitrators use. It would b euntwresting t know the price used in other judgements.

If oil is $30 more expensive now than at the beginning of proceedings then the value of future profits on 40m has unfortunately for the Republic of Italy just increased by the princely sum of $1.2bn....... oops!

I’m with Redon on this one! Would be jolly nice of the Italians to pay for phase 2 in one go🤑

Page 12 and 26..... http://www.majedie.com/download-latest/197

Clearly we’re in good company.......

Guys,

Last time I looked a couple of months ago there were basically no institutional investors in Rockhopper with all the shares being held through Hargreaves Lansdown, II etc nominees for retail investors.

So I click on the link below and a whole new range of names came up who have clearly been buying millions of shares over the last few months

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/investors/shareholder-analysis/

I think that was has been going in since May is that these boys have been happily hoovering up all the Retail held stock that has been being sold following the rise in readiness for what is to come.

Can’t help thinking that there are going to be thousands of people who have sold out following the rise this year feeling very sick once FID is announced.

On a separate note and re the Export Guarantee, I used to manage the relationship with a government body whereby the government used to guarantee business loans where there was no security to make the lending happen.

My experience of these types of scheme are that the criteria are pretty much set. So long as you can tick the boxes the money is there. Government can’t be seen to be supporting one business over another hence it is less opinion and more criteria based,

My betting is that the Export Guarentee is sorted and all that we are waiting for are Standard Chartered to confirm that everything is now complete from their side working with the various creditors.

Sad to say but the 33.5p support level appears to be broken so on technicals looks like we are heading back to 28p.

For what it’s worth, drops like these just before news often end up with huge reversals as frankly there are very few sellers around, however with minuscule volumes, the MMs can play this to their hearts content.

Still can’t help but think that there is some serious manipulation behind the scenes and that someone is pulling the chain of those crazy enough to jump ship now.

Gunstock,

I'd suggest that the EC funding has been agreed some time ago, subject to all the other parties confirming their commitment. In other words, from the start, the EC will have confirmed what they require to provide their slug of the capital and the amounts they are willing to contribute.

The Standard Chartered guys and girls will now be in the final stages of getting sign off from all the other creditors. One the EC requirements are met it should be a formality.

I continue to expect some exciting news on the 15th......

Here’s the link https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/drilquip-enters-into-feed-contract-and-frame-agreement-for-sea-lion-project-subsea-production-20181018-01418

And yes this is a contract not a letter of intent. If there really anything else any of us can add? Thanks to Geo on the Premier board and rpoodle on here! This is fantastic news....

This is huge news....... if this sent going ahead and an announcement isn’t going to be made soon then I will eat my hat!

Here’s the link for those who want to see it with their own eyes! Thanks to Geo on the Premier board and rpoodle for sharing this fantastic piece of news.

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/drilquip-enters-into-feed-contract-and-frame-agreement-for-sea-lion-project-subsea-production-20181018-01418

Agreed. There are some very odd trades going on. The problem is that volume is minuscule so all sorts of crazy movements are possible.

For me the key is that Premier are ready to get on with their next project and a Sealion is effectively ready to go. Plus it’s huge for them and a real company changer. Plus they have contracted in suppliers at tremendous rates in the back of the oil price slump.

Zama won’t be appraised until the end of this year and it will then take years to pull together everything required to get Zama to production. It fits perfectly timing wise following Sealion.

So Serica now have a market cap of £285m based on anticipated production of 4,700 barrels of oil equivalent.

Sealion will provide 30k barrels per day to Rockhopper in phase 1 suggesting an equivalent market cap of circa £1.7bn or £4 a share. Add in phase 2 and Isobel and you can do the rest of the maths yourselves.....

As Sam Moody said in one of his more recent presentations, big oil fields have a habit of getting bigger and bigger and bigger.......

OMG, following one of the biggest oil price slumps in history, in 2017 Norway’s Export Agency SLASHED their exposure to just 80%.

Run for the hills boys. It’s all over

Honestly you couldn’t make it up!

Ha ha ha, he’s the perfect contra indicator.

Whatever he says, do the opposite and endless wealth will be yours to enjoy.