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I’d be happy to see a proportion of the money that has been going into PPI each year to now be used for an ongoing buy back of £1bn a year. They could do some serious damage over a 5 year period with the share price at this level and reduce the float whilst increasing earnings per share and the dividend by over 10%.

Capital is still building so you do wonder about a big special divi at some point.

Otherwise a nice increase in the dividend would be most welcome as I see Lloyds as an income play now with capital growth to £1 a realistic prospect for those in here for the long term.

Hi Oveys,

Absolutely 100% behind you but a punt? Given the facts as they stand, I would go far as to say investing here now is almost an informed decision for those who know their subject and the circumstances.

Much

The indices appear to be holding up but underneath there is a big correction and sell off going on.

I have investments in Funds, Banks the lot as well oil and and they have all shed over 15% collectively in the last 3 months. It’s pretty indiscriminate.

Even the cryptos are falling like stones so don’t be surprised to see stocks like Rockhopper and PMO come back similarly.

Once the clear out has happened (remember September is always the worst month of the year) the freed up money will be reinvested at these lower levels and new areas of opportunity sought out.

Given where we are we might just be one of the favoured recipients of the withdrawn money when it is reinvested.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Royal-Navy-Caught-Argentina-Ship-Snooping-For-Oil-Off-Falklands.html

I know Bank forecasts for oil have been notoriously random but at least this one is consistent with what I have been saying for the last few years...... the perfect situation for Premier and RKH ?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Say-Goodbye-To-Cheap-Oil-For-Now.html

Interesting case recently won via the World Bank arbitration service against Egypt which gives an idea of what can be expected from cases like Ombrina Mare.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Egypt-Ordered-To-Pay-2B-To-JV-Over-Natural-Gas-Row.html

Many thanks to Peter Durrant on the Premier board for sharing this which was published on the 28th August.

Further confirmation of what is happening re the Falklands and the aim to have FID completed by the end of the year.

http://blogs.platts.com/2018/08/28/28263/

Always nice to have the wind behind you ahead of an update..
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/46

Sorry Comertoes.... you have lost me completely. Am I missing something or has your auto correct gone into overdrive?

Looks like everything is dripping into place nicely here.

I particularly like th following quote ‘BW’s new business model allows it to take equity on oilfields on which it can then deploy one of its own FPSOs‘.

Say no more........

Interesting to see that someone called Baggy Trousers has posted a response to the article on the comments section on the Telegraph as follows:

Rubbish. Like every major oil company, Premier delayed the project due to the oil price crash. Now there are signs of recovery, Premier is one of the first out of the gate at re-starting its stalled projects. It is nothing at all to do with 'political tensions'. Premier has steadily reducing debts which are public knowledge. Every $10 on the oil price reduces the debt by a further $500 m a year. Of course a final investment decision won't be made until funding is in place - it would be commercial suicide otherwise, duh. Right now banks are very happy to jump on this gravy train.

I know all this because I'm negotiating the contracts for Premier. Barclays' comments are sour grapes as it is not in the frame for the bonanza that is surely coming.

Another great find Mogger.

It’s interesting that Premier provided a trading update on the 12th July which was pretty detailed and now we have a further update relating to 5 last 6 months of trading on Thursday.

Be interesting tom hear what if anything they have to add as Mr Durrant has always appeared very positive when it comes to Sealion.

Hi Surfit and apologies on my part. Poor use of terminology.

When I said ‘self finance’ I meant as opposed to getting a major to farm in.

Hope that clarifies matters.

Much

Hi Surfit

The size of a project like this and the risks involved with one bank being the sole source of finance is too bigger risk if it all goes bottoms up.

As such normal practice is to appoint a lead Bank (in this case Standard Chatetered) who will engage the credit market and other banks, government bodies and suppliers to see who is interested in financing the project and at what rates.

They’ll also engage with the Export Finance Guarantee scheme representatives to agree what is required to secure this element of the finance package and in theory come up with a final proposal that is acceptable to all concerned at the best rates possible. In addition, service companies and suppliers are offering finance packages as part of their work so their contribution will also need to be worked in. The downside is that lots of players won’t now participate in oil and gas projects in environmental grounds.

The following article in the FT which everyone can access talks about the financing of a Sealion in relation to Premier. https://www.ft.com/content/a3018a9e-0017-11e7-96f8-3700c5664d30

As Tony Durrant has said in a number of his podcasts recently, the appetite in the credit markets for this kind of project has recovered markedly since oil recovered to $70 + so it shouldn’t be too difficult to get everyone around the table and to get agreement. That said finance of $1.5bn takes a lot of time and structuring and is complex given the life of the field etc.. it’s not a 5 year loan for a van for £10k!

I personally think that Premier have always wanted to self finance Sealion and not bring in another major oil company and that this has been the real reason that this has been strung out. The rewards here could be extraordinary so why farm out the spoils if you are able to go it alone which it appears they will be able to do?

They have said that they expect FID by the year. I was slightly surprised that they only appointed a lead bank when they did however it is an extremely positive sign.The SC Oil and Gas team will have access to every form of finance conceivable to make this work.

The following link is a few years old but provides a really excellent overview of the financing options available for a project like this and is well worth a read

https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Funding-challenges-in-the-oil-and-gas-sector/$FILE/EY-Funding-challenges-in-the-oil-and-gas-sector.pdf

Hope this helps

Jarrovian,

Forgiive me for rising to Oilskie’s bate however if you look back at the thread, I simply asked him what his interest was in RKH and whether he had a position which was driving his negative sentiment. I sought simply to understand the cause of his negativity and reasons as I like to understand the thoughts and views of everyone at the table in case I have missed something.

In response he made a number of comments re typos, smaller position, boring career etc so I responded in kind.

I was educated at the local comprehensive, did A levels, went into Banking. Made enough money on the markets in the 90s to buy land and diversify into property including building my own home. I respect people of all backgrounds and trades as without them, everything falls apart. However some sectors attract higher salaries due to the skills require and of course supply and demand in that labour market.j

Everything I have achieved has been through hard work and the making of good decisions so you can relax. No silver spoons in mouths here.

As Ovets has correctly pointed out, the financiers are the key here. My point is that as a Banker, this now stacks up and with Standard Chartered now responsible for coordinating the debt, I’d be very surprised if the financing isn’t in place by the year end.

Much

Oilskie,

Rest assured I was a Grade A student in both English Language and Literature.

I’m afraid it’s all down to the joys of typing on a mobile device on the go and at speed....... the auto correct on my device appears to have a mind of its own!

I’ll have a look into what is causing it as it’s as embarrassing for me as it is annoying for you.

Olliesky,

Are you really so dumb as to think that this is my sole position? Ha ha ha.. you do make me chuckle. There’s a 100k of Lloyd’s and just short of £1m in the pension pot on top of these. These are just for fun .. my high risk high return icing on the cake shares.

You’re Absolutely right that it can be boring and is very academic with lots of people with very large brains rather than cover hands but the lifestyle it affords and that my family and have enjoyed is better than anything you could imagine.

I’m sorry you are underwater here. Timing is everything. It’s the difference between winners and losers. You and me I guess.

Imabine what winning looks like. New Range Rover bought outright on the drive, Georgian villa up a private road. Why not use your brain to do the work and let others do the grafting for you?

Ahhh but Bancos, looking at your posts, you only seem interested in Rockhopper.

You talk about Oilies yet post on RKH only. There is clearly a personal agenda here. So tell us all what it is rather than just serve up the same thing day after day

No one has a problem with you having a different view. We just want to understand the reasons and for you to validate it with some facts.

Olliskie and Bancos

Two simple questions for you. Question is, can you answer them or are they behind you both?

What brings you to the board and why the interest in Rockhopper?

Do you have a position and if so what is i?

I’m 75k long at 34p

Much

Indeed we will Olliesky. Ultimately we have all taken our positions based on our understanding of the opportunity here and laid our bets accordingly. Rest assured I will be the first to remind you as each piece of the jigsaw slots into place and to congratulate you in the unlikely event that I am wrong.

All I ask is that hou stick to facts now be they positive or negative and validate them with some kind of evidence.

And as for your comment re Bankers, I am guessing you are referring to the 2007 meltdown when governments across the globe had mortgaged their countries to the hilt to keep the party going and the sub prime crisis came along and cancelled their credit cards.

Everyone loves to have someone to blame so let’s blame the Bankers rather than embark on a period of self reflection.

I read recently that Banking and Finance employees were the highest contributors to the tax system as a result of the size of their packages.

Strange that we should be so well paid and be so highly valued financially when we’re so worthless.

Trust me it’s a great gig if you have the aptitude and ability to secure a role......you ought to try it some time!

Much