Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

You can always rely on IC to live up to its reputation as being the best contra indicator known to man......https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2019/04/03/rockhopper-wait-continues/

When I retire I am going to spend 6 months doing the opposite of everything they suggest and become a multi millionaire!

Rose all the way into the closing bell so would expect a gap up to 30p first thing tomorrow. Technically there is nothing on the charts to make it pause until 34p.

The market just parked this (false dawn last year) ) but is back and interested.

Good volumes and some big chunky trades.

Given what we know is going on behind the scenes and how close we are, this could finally be it boys!

?? your investment strategy is very strange.

You’ve almost created a system which guarantees losses and ensures you miss winners.

You should be buying if it breaks 25p not waiting to buy at 20p.

I genuinely want you to make money the same as everyone on here. Buy on the break out!

Once this breaks 25p it should head almost straight to 34p.

Feels like last year all over again except this time it will almost definitely be for real.

Volume up nicely and the buying is continuing...... perhaps after all these years of waiting we're about to have a steady rise but this time it will culminate in 'lift off'

Carrot it reduces their debt thereby providing more head room for Sealion funding.

The lenders want the debt down before sanctioning so this potentially brings FID a step closer

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PMO&ArticleCode=05wr5h4t&ArticleHeadline=Completion_of_sale_of_Pakistan_business

It all helps .....

Welcome Major Tom

Agree re dilution. No concerns here either. It's not going to happen. If and when it does it is likely to be on the back of realising opportunities and expansion many years down the road rather than needing to raise cash to pay the bills.

Grey has a bee in his tail about dilution but no one else can see it. Other financing options are apparently not an option!

Get ready to to be 'educated'!

Much

Commercial Banker Squirrel with 30 years in the game so yes I do have a bit of experience and knowledge to share with anyone who would like to listen or discuss. No experience in international I’m a afraid. Do try and pay attention in future!

Happy to share anything that people want to ask of me. I have nothing to hide and certainly don’t make anything up. Interesting that you aren’t willing to share your credentials. Very telling.

On a more serious note, my take is that these boards are for people to share ideas and opinions and to learn from each other and have a laugh on the way to making their fortunes. If I make a factual error then people are welcome to correct me. I get things wrong sometimes and learn something new every day.

However, what I cannot abide is you berating people because they have a difference of opinion. Everyone is entitled to express their opinions share ideas and learn without fear of being bullied by you. And given no one knows exactly how this will all pan out, their beliefs and theories have as much credibility as your own until proven otherwise. OM is a case in point. None of us actually knows how it will pan out as it is virgin territory so anyone with a theory should be free to throw their hat in the ring based on their best guess.

I am sure that there are many people who read this board and would truly love to ask questions or post their thoughts but don’t because they fear you waiting in the wings to pounce and try they show them up. Frankly you ought to be ashamed of yourself. Looking back at your posts, all of which relate to RKH, I am struck by the aggressive and belittling tone you adopt. Conflictual and most of it darn right rude and nearly always unpleasant. Like most keyboard warriors I doubt you would say what you happily post each day to the faces of your target and for good reason.

If you really are the font of all knowledge, how about you use it to better the experience and knowledge of others, not to try and berate and undermine them. Are you really so sad that the highlight of your day is to try and catch someone out on here or prove your self validated ‘superior knowledge’?
http://www.lse.co.uk/chat-rules.asp
By all means share your extraordinary wisdom with people and help them to learn but get shot of the arrogant supercilious tone. It does you no favours and achieves nothing but create unhappiness and bad feeling.

No Grey,

So far as I am concerned OM is 90% + sure to succeed but its not an imperative. Simply the icing on the cake. Let's not agree to OM being the key criteria so far as any dilution is concerned.

Dilution is something that the Directors are going to want to avoid as much as anyone and they're certainly not going to want to do a placement unless the shares are inexorably higher than current levels. At £4 a share you can raise hundreds of millions with very little dilution and I expect any capital raising that might have to occur to be used to finance growth and other projects as opposed to simply surviving.

There is a possibility that I will be at the AGM so I will most certainly search you out as it would be good to become acquainted and uncover the arrogant face behind the mask.

I'll be wearing a blue navy pin stripe suite as it coincides with me being up in London with work as things stand. You can't miss me. Just over 6 foot 2 ....... all you need to do is look above the heads of the madding crowd.

So given your apparent 'expertise' and 'greater knowledge' of everything we care to discuss on here, how about you provide some info re your background, profession and why we should all bow to your greater knowledge.

I'm as keen to learn from others as the next man, however before doing so, an oracle needs to prove they have credibility. So how about you enlighten us with a bit about yourself, your background and why we should all view you as being the font of all knowledge on the board?

Grey,

Once Sealion Phase 1 is in production cashflow generation for Rockhopper will be significant given 30k barrels per daye. With life of field costs at $35 a barrel that gives $30 a barrel profit or a $1m profit a day with oil at $65. Anything higher and the bottom line rises exponentially.

If you don't believe that kind of cashflow can be used to fund further development and additional equity issuance is inevitable then I disagree with you.

A farm down of Isobel which many believe is larger than Sealion again provides yet another means of funding.

Its a shame we're not able to have this discussion in person as I suspect you would adopt a more conciliatory tone if you were standing before me.

There was an idiot like you on here who attacked my posts when I predicted 6 weeks before the event that RKH would take out FOGL, and lo and behold they did.

The reality is that none of us know how this will pan out and we each have our opinions based on the facts and our belief in how this will play out. Time will decide which of us is right not you.

Grey,

I’ll repeat the point I made once more as it clearly passed you by.

How much equity has Premier had to issue to fund Sealion at a cost of £1.6bn?

Answers on a postcard and for those who are struggling the answer starts and ends with a zero..... dilution is not in any way inevitable here.

Sorry Grey,

We'l just have to agree to disagree then.

There are a multitude of options re financing future expansion. Just look at the way the Sealion financing is being put together by Premier and note the absence of any equity raising to finance it.

We already know that Apollo have expressed an interest in taking an equity stake in the Sealion field in return for a cash injection. Yes I get that this is earnings dilutive but its not equity dilutive.

Kind of makes my point really.

It's a good challenge Grey and you may be right.

Some debt to fund investment and ever higher returns is obviously a good thing.

I just feel that normally when an oil company gets to production they are so loaded up with debt that it becomes restrictive aka premier or Cairn and they have no choice but to create extra equity.

However here are a lot of options to avoid dilution hence I think in the case of Rockhopper we might just get away with it.

Much

Hey Grey

I do hear what you're saying and please rest assured that any dilution here is extremely unwelcome from my perspective.

However, what gives me comfort are the following:

1. Ombrina Mare - I am banking on us seeing £100m minimum from this effectively addressing our short term cashflow requirements and making us relatively cash rich
2. We have carries for Phase 1 and 2 of Sealion
3. We hold 64% of Isobel and even more of some of the other structures so opportunity to farm down if required
4. Once Sealion starts to produce cashflow then it would be easy to borrow from the banks or other sources

All of these should enable RKH not to resort to issuing addition equity.

When you compare the debts of the likes of Cairn and Premier and what they have had to borrow to produce, we will potentially be in an extraordinary situation ie little or no debt, 50k barrels per day, significant cashflowand various oil fields which can be funded through cashflow and farm downs.

It doesn't't get much better than that.

Sealion is expected to deliver profitable production for 20 years.

If you then assume Isobel and the multitude of other follow on structures across the basin are brought into production on the back of the infrastructure that would be in place, Rockhopper would actually have a more definitive lifespan than the majority of companies on the London stock exchange.

All products and companies have a limited lifespan as circumstances and fads change. To this end I would expect the market to provide us with a significantly higher PE than 5 driven by a generous yield as Rockhopper quickly starts to return cash to shareholders and becomes a cash cow. Time will hopefully tell........

Crofty... so you reckon a market cap of £900m (£2 a share) would be as good as it gets here on production iof 50k barrels a day, cash from Ombrima Mare and a proved up Isobel?

Assuming we were making a conservative £200m a year and the value of the cash was nil with no Isobel, we’d be on a PE of 5 which is a 65% discount to the maket average of 14.

I get the feeling you don’t understand the first thing about how a share is valued based on fundamentals.

If this all turns out as planned, anyone who sells out at £2 will be kicking themselves for the rest of their days albeit the institutions will be queuing up to take them off your hands.

You have been warned......

I get that we're all frustrated but we are genuinely nearly there now.

After 7 long years of waiting we may just find we are about to arrive then this becomes a very different beast.

Unfortunately Sam and the crew are hostages of Premier and can do little more than try to jolly them along and be supportive. No its not ideal but what alternatives are there and what can they do?

I'm positive we'll see FID and Ombrina Mare sorted this year. As these things come to pass everything will change and this share will start to move in ways that you could only previously have dreamed.

Surfit ... to close their position a shorter has to buy back in so short closing will normally lead to a rise and a rush of buys.

If the price rises fast a bear squeeze ensures where 'shorters' rush to cover their positions by buying back in sending the share sharply higher

Grey ..... 5 years has us into production, Isobel appraised and cashflow with phase 2 coming down the track.

Market is normally 18 month ahead of itself. biggest threat is that we get bought out before fun value is realised.

Throw in the supply squeeze on oil anticipated around 2024 to 2030 and you get the picture.

Hi Suresh

For me £35k on one share is quite enough. I could be wrong however the upside with this kind of holding is enough to sort me out for life if I'm right. Only a fool would put all their eggs in one basket. So I'm confident but not stupid.

The thing people need to understand is that for example with Cairn you £3.2bn of debt and Premier with £2.2bn. We also have a benign political situation with the Falklands and UK Gov so no India style fiasco aka Cairn.

The Falklands provides enough follow on and farm down opportunities to guarantee an almost debt free future for RKH and also an extremely low tax rate. Then there is the fact that there are only 450m shares in issue.

Look at Premier and Cairn and work out what their profits would be if they weren't having to service and pay down debt.