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Ha ha ha.. the EU showboating something that won’t effect any of their member nations.

Apart from Italy and the UK (we’re of course leaving) no one has any oil fields or places to explore so of course they can introduce this and shout about it from the rooftops whilst Germany produces half of its electricity from coal!

Trust me if a big oilfield is discovered in Germany this will get repealed faster than you can say Olliesky! In the meantime it’s of no relevance to us whatsoever....

Good to see GS starting to look into the 2020s and seeing the impending supply shock to the oil market courtesy of the small number of discoveries made in 2015/16 and the impact the dearth f fields coming online is going to have.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-A-Major-Oil-Price-Rally-Is-On-The-Horizon.html

Could be the perfect storm with Sealion potentially coming online at just the right time.

Good to see my extraordinary ability to post and send the share price spiralling southwards is still intact! Next time I'll open up a short and then post ! :)

Nice to see some nice chunky buys going through at 18p this morning. Frist time in ages that anyone had dipped their hand in their pockets.

Premier update is scheduled for the 14th Nov so I would expect this to tick up over the next few weeks ahead of this and a Zama update along with other Sealion related news.

Interest in Zama is strong with a number of interested parties involved in discussions. You may have seen the Mexican Gov statement recently confirming that the state wouldn’t interfere in Zama and that private companies could develop the field without concern.

It’s a couple of months since Premier hoisted the for sale sign so expect something within the next month ie by the next quarterly update.

Farm in won’t be in a traditional sense ie another oil major. It’s going to be an equity investor like Apollo who will take a stake in the project and this won’t be announced until the Zama sale is confirmed. Once these boxes are ticked it will form part of the requirements for the UKIF loan which will then be signed off. The conditions and requirements for UKEF sanction will be known and have been shared. Premier just have to deliver their part of the bargain to get the go ahead,

And then we can all look forward to a nice cash injection from Ombrina Mare.

In the meantime this is going to be as interesting as watching paint dry. Volumes are so low that I could sell my house and increase them 10 fold with the proceeds.

We’re in the final straight now, just be patient........

Agree Auson ... I would imagine they are only going to be able to hold this back for a little longer beforewe're going to switch on and suddenly find ourselves up 2.5p and flying. Hopefully any time soon.

I guess Mandrills musing sum up perfectly why we are 20 p and the extent to which people outside of RKH are ignorant of the upside and just how close we are to Sealion being sanctioned. No doubt he has never even heard of Ombrina Mare.....

Interims from RKH this morning as they describe them ‘strong H1 operating and financial performance with a continued focus on costs’. Net production was 1.2 kboepd with revenue of $4.8m and operating costs of $2.2m, with G&A down by 35% in the last three years and cash of $27m and no debt the numbers are just fine.

Much more importantly, the work on Sea Lion is going on ‘full steam ahead’ with the Phase 1 development substantially de-risked from a technical, cost and schedule perspective and resources number for phase 1 has increased from 220 to 250m bbls (gross) with a capex of $1.8bn. With Premier launching the sale of its Zama licence in Mexico indicating that their commitment to Sea Lion is undiminished, the partners are now focusing on securing the senior debt funding ahead of FID.

With the sale of the Egyptian assets in process the other key ongoing development is the Ombrina Mare arbitration which could be material and a result is expected in the next six months. Rockhopper is now putting together all the building blocks to finally be rewarded for all the hard work at Sea Lion as well.

Great post Long Term. Reflects my thinking 100%. Worth mentioning the added bonus of Ombrina Mare Q1 2020. May well be the icing on the cake putting an end to any suggestions of the need to raise cash in the future.

The attack has apparently taken 5.7m barrels a day off the market at a stroke. I’d expect oil to open at $75 - $80 a barrel once the Asian markets open. Oils g a lot higher in the coming days.

Just goes to show the value of extracting oil from politically stable places.

Terrible thing to happen but for producers like Premier it’s an absolute godsend cor earnings and the potential value of Zama.

Just £9k sterling in value of shares traded today. Unbelievably low. This share is waiting like a coiled spring.

In the meantime equilibrium in the absence of any news is the low 20s

Gen suffers from something that RKH doesn’t ie it’s sitting geographically between Iran and Iraq so you could lose everything overnight. You can’t therefore draw any comparisons.

Anywhere else in the world and it would be a £10 a share plus

Wow! 75 p at first oil. Goodness me that would give us a market cap of almost £300m! Lol So let’s do some basic maths with some assumptions so that those who clearly don’t have a clue about how a company is valued by the market start to realise the potential here.

Yes there are some assumptions and some of what I am about to present will be conservative and some optimistic, however on the whole it should provide a general idea of where we might be in 3 to 5 years time.

Each of the following will need to happen to get full value to a varying degree:

1. Ombrina Mare - I reckon we’ll see an award of £200m here and probably end up with £150m once the lawyers have had their cut. That equates to 33p a share cash plus an uplift in market sentiment towards the stock of a few more pence so I’m attributing an increase in the share price of 40p taking us into the mid 60s

2. FID and Sanction - Our D Day and should be take off time. We’ll be getting 40% of what comes out of Sealion. Assuming life of field costs of $35 a barrel and an oil price of $65 we’ll see $30 a barrel profit. Production is expected to be 80k a day Phase 1 increasing to 120k phase 2. We get 40% of that so 32k barrels a day rising to 48k barrels a day on phase 2. That’s daily profit of $1m rising to $1.5m on phase 2. Annualised we’re looking at annual profits of $365m rising to $550m. Assuming sterling appreciates post BREXIT then in Sterling it’s £300m rising to £500m. That’s earnings per share of 67p rising to £1.11 based on 450m shares in issue. Assuming a 40% discount to the market PE of 14 ie using a PE of 10 makes Sealion phase 1 £6.70 and phase 2 takes us up to £11.

3. As part of the development of Sealion they’re going to red-drill and properly appraise Isobel which is almost definitely bigger than Sealion. Has to be worth £4.00 a share in value if its as big as we think it might be given bringing it into production will be able to happen from Sealion cash flow and of course we own 64% of it so can farm down again

If oil bets back into the 80s and stays there then you can increase these prices proportionately.

In reality I expect Premier and Rockhopper to merge in an all share deal so we will all become Premier shareholders in due course.

Combined and with Sealion producing you end up with a company producing 200k barrels a day and making upwards of £1.8bn a year.

To give you a comparison, Hargreaves Lansdown makes £280m a year and is valued at £10bn.

If this all falls into place then the only thing any of us are going to worry about is what to do with all the money we have made. This stock really does have off the scale potential on a 3 to 5 year view.

Sell into a rise at the end of the year at your peril.

Yes it was interesting the way they both appeared together.

Those IG Index shorts looking a bit precarious girls?

Because the minute you tried to buy RKH it would go almost straight to £2. Still a bargain but everyone would pile in knowing you had to pay taking the price inexorably higher.

I think you will find that the farm in will be via an equity investor rather than an oil company eg Apollo injecting £400m for a day 15% stake in Sealion

Hey Ralph... I’ve never put anyone on ignore as I like to think that everyone has some value and something to add t the debate, however in your case I simply can’t afford to waste any more of my precious time on your drivel so you’re going on ignore.

Can I suggest everyone else does the same so that we can all focus on value adding and informative discussion as we move into pre fid and this really starts to get exciting?

Apologies...... I meant to state that Sealion anticipated recovery has gone from 220m to 250m.

I’m listening to the conference call and TD stated that the additional wells to get out the additional 30m barrels are the reasons for the increase in the CAPEX

Sealion has been increased from 250m to 280m with additional wells.

In other words Sealion is getting bigger and they are going to invest even more.....

Up 5% at the opening.

Be interesting to see whether we get a volume jump today and also what happens post PMO conference call.