Member Info for Mike1959

...agreed that Oz is geographical and eventually product diversification.

Yes, crazy market so far this morning. Yesterday and so far this morning the sales have been greater than the buys but we are still up over 6%!. Possibly some big buys on JSE???

Hi viable, you mention the Tennant project in Oz was was pricey at a purchase price of $54.2 million (98% as PAF shares/8% cash) plus an initial capex investment of $35.7m so $90 million to buy it have it operational but I assume you mean by S African numbers. Don't forget the initial pay=back based on 50,000 ozs of gold/year at a price of $2,600/oz and an AISC of $1300/oz was around 3 years with a ROI of around 20% /year. Based on gold at $3,300/oz the payback is now reduced to about one year which rhymes with Waterloo's comment below.

And then don't forget this is a massive 1700 km2 site,, the first 3-5 years will treat old tailings/spoil heaps with all the low cost/low risk benefits mentioned by bustard before moving on to open and underground gold mining and as mentioned by charles below it has current Mineral Resources of around 1.2 million tonnes of copper. .

Hi viable, I think theoakbloke is way too high with his H225 PAT of $93.45 million or that it will exceed the whole of 2023 or 2024 and there are a few flaws in his revenue calculations. Also he commented on the net cash reduction in Q3, "I put it down to investing in Karo" but most of the Q3 capex was at the Tharisa mine But overall some interesting comments and numbers!

Hedgehogg, I tend to agree. When we get the 2025 result in September it will be good, although I expect an EPS of 7.4 cents rather than the 8.15 suggested by Edison. But 2026is going to be a absolutely bumper, we just have to be patient!

Guys, interesting RNS today which now suggests to me that Krusty is right, that the end of June NAV will be lower than my previous estimate and with falling vessel prices and worsening economic outlook the Board has grasped the nettle and agreed to sell off a further 10 vessels for USD 176.3 million (presumably about USD 175 million net). We were informed that selling the previous 11 vessels would reduce the net debt to about USD 5 million so adding in a further USD 175 million for the new 10 vessel sales should give us net cash of about USD 170 million by the time the fleet is reduced to 8 plus one joint venture (which I think will be just one or 2 Supra/Ultras and the others, older Handys) .

That net cash of USD 170 million probably represents about half of the NAV so I would hope that the share price increases further to reflect this, why have a share price of 18% below NAV if the main assets, the remaining 8 or 9 vessels could be sold for a 1 or 2 % discount to Fair Market Value?

The management still appears to be committed to continuing the business and as Sam points out already have considerable skin in the game. If the company continues to pay 2c /quarter that costs $26.4 million/year and even with no other losses in the business the net cash in one year would fall to about $144 million. So we are still reliant on market conditions improving if the business is to have a future, the net cash position just buys us more time. Bring on 25th July.

Yes, it is good to see the net cash figure at the end of June adjusted upwards to $43.1 million but with the high capex scheduled for the current quarter I can see that net cash totally disappearing or even being a small net DEBT which will bring the H2 dividend into sharp focus.

All the more why we need a strong PGM basket and good next on Karo financing.

Hi guys, I might be too optimistic on my expected end of June NAV, but I have taken the Company at their word that they are concentrating on getting costs down. I have assumed an averaged adjusted TC of $13,200/day and average operating costs of $8,200/day (includes operating expenses, general admin expenses and demand deposit reserves but excluding interest/depreciation/dividends. The Company have already said the previously announced 11 vessel sales will not be completed until September so I have assumed outstanding debt at the end of June as $165 m (end of March $250.1 m) so around $2.9m interest for April-June.. Continuing to pay dividend of 2c/share per quarter is costing $6.6m per quarter. I reckon that 10 year old vessel values fell by 2% for Handys and 6% for Supra/Ultramaxs but under the terms of the new company structure we will not physically value each vessel at the end of June but rather use a nominal depreciation number which I roughly calculate as 1.5% per quarter per vessel or a depreciation cost of about $5.2m for March-April (I assume there will be a physical vessel valuation and adjustment at the end of the next financial year and possible at the interim).

I was surprised to see that the IVS Okudogo and Preswick Ultras have just been sold as there are only 2 younger vessels in our fleet, and this will cut the fleet down to 17. But the combined sales value of $53-54 m looks a fabulous price for us and probably reflects that our Board expect prices to continue to fall and this should make us net cash rich by around $48m once completed which will hopefully be used to buy 2 or 3 vessels at cheaper prices in 6 months time. We will know more on 25th July. As you say fingers crossed and GLA.

Hi oufc, with pt up $46 today and pd up $87, I make the Tharisa basket price about $1814.Karo basket is around $1660, so the project will be commercially viable, still need to find the partners and probably 2027 at the earliest before it srarts on a commercial scale.

The share prie is currently down 1.14% but this has got to finish up on the day.

Viable,I have just checked the Nymex closing prices,platinum up 4.25% on the day to $1472.6 and palladium up over 7% on the day at $1289.

I am looking forward to the THS Shares price and JM basket prices on Monday, it looks like the blue paper has been lit and stand well back!

Viable, I agree, the Karo PGM basket price has got to be close to $1700 now.

Wow that is a massive surge this afternoon in the US Nymex platinum price.

Rhodium, iridium and ruthenium have also joined the party this week so the Tharisa weekly PGM basket price will be up on Monday.

Three late 250,000+ trades today and the share price has finished the week north of 50p.

Fingers crossed it stays there on Monday which would be very supportive.

....do you mean Karo?

If they produce 200,000/ year pgm at about 8% gold content that is around 16,000 oz of gold a year.

Hi Sam, we just have to be patient. The BHSI hit a new year high today and is up 13% so far this year but it was last at the current level in December last year when the share price was in the high 60's and the weaker USD exchange rate is not helping.

More buys that sells today so remember " the trend is my friend".

Hi raxfactor, I agree that higher production would certainly help.Hopefully the chrome price does not go any lower than the current $265 level and the speciality chrome production was relatively low in Q3 which lowers the Agency revenue but also the Costs. Hopely the lower Q3 stripping ratio continues into Q4 which should reduce the mining cost per tonne.

Unfortunately with the lower estimated production for the full year ,higher costs due to the weaker$/stronger ZAR, exchange rate, particularly electricity and based on the current chrome/PGM prices for the final quarter my estimated PAT for the full year is now down to around $37 million or a EPS of around 12.5 c/share. So after paying out 1.5 c dividend in H1 (54.3% of NPAT) we should expect a lower final dividend , even a final dividend of 1.5c or 3c for the full year would represent about 24% of NPAT which blows the ~15% of NPAT policy totally out of the water. Based on the current share price that gives a 2025 PE of about 8.8. Happy to discuss any other opinions.

So some good news on the Karo financing would be most helpful.

I think a solid set of production numbers without knocking any lights out. Good to see the PGM and chrome recoveries up. For the full year I expect pgm production to be around 136,000 ozs , just below the target of 140,000 to 160,000 and chrome around 1.60 million so just under the revised number of 1.65 million.

The net cash in Q2 was greater than I had expected. I expected Q3 net cash to be down but admit the reduction was greater than expected although in the Company's defence it had been explained. In H1 the capex on Karo was probably kept to a trickle ,now with the higher pgm price , no doubt the capex on Karo is probably being increased again. I agree that it would be good to know more about the Tharisa mine underground feasibility study.

Hi Sam, I know what you mean but at least we have seen an improving share price in recent months. The annual accounts up to the end of March 2025 were originally going to be published on 8th July although now 25th July, but you know my views on them and they are now in the rear mirror and it is onwards and upwards.

The April-June NAV and trading update will also be out on 25th July. So far I have seen 5 of the vessel sales previously announced complete in Compass Maritime Weekly Reports during the quarter. I am hoping for an improved adjusted TCE of around $13,200/day .With the reduction in outstanding debt , the promised cost savings and the new company structure I am expecting a NAV reduction of 1 cent/share from $1.11 to $1.10/share which would represent a 20% discount to the current share price. While still a small reduction it is a massive improvement on recent quarters. Under the new structure I think the quarter NAV will include a standard depreciation number rather than an actual valuation gain/loss in vessel values.

Charles, I do a similar back of a *** packet calculation, waste of time being too sophisticated when we are talking 2026 and the numbers can change. I broadly agree with your numbers. As mentioned below my current expected EPS for 2026 is 7.2 and if 50% is paid out at dividend that is USD 73.3m so in the same ball park as your possible profit for distribution of USD 87.5m. Edison is suggesting a 74.3% of EPS paid out as dividend which would be nearer USD 108 m which sounds too optimistic to me so I will remain a little more conservative until nearer the time.

Waterloo04, sorry that you are out and hope you are back soon. As said before, as a collective we should not get too spooked by a slight increase in the short position. Looking at their website and Wiki I see that Arrowstreet are a US investment firm using quantitative analysis. I just wonder if their position is trying to make money due to a weaker USD as out of a lower gold price. They have temporarily borrowed (at a cost) and shorted the shares in GBP . I just wonder if they have a sophisticated hedge selling PAF in GBP then offsetting with USD currency sales/options against GBP. As the USD weakens against the ZAR and Aussie Dollar this increases the overhead costs and reduces the profit in USD. Even if the gold price remains unchanged say $3300 at 1.30 = £2538/oz but at $1.38= £2391/oz and some pundits are suggesting under president Trump we could see 1.50 which would reduce that price to £2,200/oz.

The weaker USD at the moment partly explains why we are struggling to break 50p.