Member Info for Mike1959

Purchases outnumbered sales today by more than 3 to 1.

I think we just need the gold price to hold current levels for a few weeks and then we could well see £1.

GLA.

We most definitely knew that the phased transition to underground was coming and would require some capex so the drop was unfair.

I would be surprised if the SARS appealed the tax judgement which will give a nice one-off boost to the full accounts. I am hoping for some good numbers when the Q4 production is published next monday, for the full year I would like to see PGM production at 138,400 0z and cr production at 1.566 million tonnes.We should expect a big drop in net cash during the quarter.

Hi guys, I hope you are well. With the publication of the July to September quarterly NAV and trading update on 24th October I have done a rough estimate which is made more complicated as we do not know exactly how many of the previously announced vessel sales werecompleted during the quarter.I reckon the NAV will have reduced by about 1.5 c/ share to around 99cents/share so the loss has probably slowed down a little from the previous quarter.The BHSI is now up over 52% since the start of the year and the highest since December 2023 so fingers crossed for breaking even or even a small profit in the current quarter.

Visitor/Dofmeister, I am in the same ball park with profit after tax of USD 71 m based on 50,000oz production/sales or USD 89 million based on 55,000 oz production/sales.

Viable,even though we are processing the MTR tailings near Krugersdorf I assume that after extracting the gold that the new dry stacked tailings will largely stay where it is although slighly smaller if they are denser and then more environmentally friendly if they are capped and returned to the local community to use.

For the Soweto Cluster I am not certain if the processed dry tailings would stay in the area or if they would be transported by truck or pipeline the 26 km to the Krugersdorp area, what do you think?

Bustard , I reckon 2026 production at 275,000 oz will be 58% tailings ( if we assume all of TCMG production is from tailings). For 2027 I am working on minimum 320, 000 oz which would be over 60% from tailings.

Even if the Soweto Cluster big bang is given the go-ahead it would probably take 2 years or more to build its own processing plant so that would start during financial year 2028.

Hi Waterloo,Sorry for the late reply.

I really don't know but I assumed it will all automatically operate in the background. Effectively Arrow has borrowed the shares , the lender will get main market shares ( like all of us) which will simply go out to Arrow to replace the previously AIM based shares.

Jamming, no need to worry about shares being dumped, it has already happened, Van Eck has sold and others have gladly bought those shares. This news is history and after today everyone will have forgot about it. In late October we will have it the other way round, we join the main market and big institutions will buy to reflect we are in the main market index.

The overall story has not changed, onwards and upwards.

....the crazy thing is that this reindexing was decided in June, since then PAF has out - performed the vast majority of other gold/ silver mines so there is a good chance that at the next reindexing point, Van Eck will have to buy again!

....yes it looks likeVan Eck reduced from 6% to 2.3% last Friday.

I think the share price has absorbed their reduction extremely well.

Hi Accomp, thanks for your review.

But I think a dangerous assumption. The share price over 3 or 4 weeks ago was starting to reflect the 2026 numbers rather than the expected 2025 numbers.Personally I think 14 is too high to work on for 2026 at the moment based on the current gold price and expectations EDV with its much bigger production and geographic locations but slower growth is currently trading around 14 and i think it will take us a few years to reach these levels., But naturally I hope you are right . When the big boys like Fresnillo are trading on 20 + it looks crazy given that elephants don't run and we are definitely running!

I tend to be a bit more cautious and think it takes a year or two for progressive comanies like PAF to rerate but really great to have your opinion.

...the RNS says " the Ordinary shares will be cancelled from trading on AIM in late October" so my interpretation is that they must be listed on the main market at the same time otherwise you could not trade your shares?

In terms of where the share price can go, the average forward PE has traded around 7 for the last 3 to 5 years, I am guestimating that could increase to say 8 or 9 with forward momentum, greater geographic diversity and listing on the main market. Based on the actual average gold price for the year to date and say an average of $3700/oz forward the rest of the year, (so an average of $3638/oz forward the full year, production 275,000 oz,AISC $1643/oz) revenue would just hit $1 billion and profit after tax around $370 million. At a PE of 8 that is equivalent to 108p share price at current exchange rate, I will leave it to others if you want to work on a higher PE. But Mr Market will not accept those numbers without firmer evidence, hence I think we will not trade above 100p until after the H1 interim in Feb and then we need to see that H1 production is 128,000 oz or more. So I think the share price could increase another 10% or so before catching up with the market sentiment at the current share price.If the gold price has a little wobble then the share price could follow ( what is it that Mr Buffet says about being fearful when others are crazily buying? ).

Millenium International reduced their short position to just 0.03% last Friday.Also as of Friday last week PAF has overtaken Hochschild on total market capitalisation making us now the 4th biggest gold/silver producer listed in London.

Hear hear, I will settle for that. We have a few markers which will gradually reinforce the big picture-the feasibility study on the Soweto Cluster big bang should be out in the next 2 weeks, we will get an updated MRE for Oz in October, the main marketv

listing and Emmerson Resoreces feasibility report and likely start date on White Devil before the end of Dec.

The weaker USD continues to be a headwind . But with us almost half way into H1 the forward gold price can afford to drop to $3500 for the remainder of H1 and the H1 profit will still be higher than in ALL of last year!

How is your walking trip going?

Parryk, you know my opinion but I hope you are right!

Despite the fall today we are still up 10% this week and the share price is still trading considerably below PE 6 my expected 2026 number but we need alot of reassuring news along the way.

Likewise have a good weekend all.

my expected 2026 number

LOL-like it UpsDowns.

Jjhbev, we were told that TCMG should be up at full 840,000 tonnes/ year by the end of September. For the first 3 months they have only processed the easy Crown Pillar Stockpile which has a gold content of only 1.48 grams/ tonne but should now have started to use grades with considerably higher gold content so I am confident we can hit 50,000 oz this financial year and 60,000 in 2027 and then tweaking the plant to 1 million tonnes/year for say a n investment of say USD 8 million should increase the production to 70,000 ozs/ year. We are going to need a considerable upgrade or new plant by the time white Devil kicks in.

All going very well until I saw the massive uncrossed trade at the end of the day, if this the threatened Van Eck reindexing?

Should made the opening negative on Monday but lots of buying interest around to absorb it.

Good spot. I had watched the presentation before and in the middle of the presentation he did say they were still considering the Soweto cluster "big bang" as he described it. But in rhe Q&A he seemed to be a bit more conservative with a possible increase in MTR to 75,000 oz /year.

I suppose it is all down to risk and return. The Mogale tainings at Krugersdorp contain about 124 million tonnes of tailings and estimated 0.29 grams tonne. The processing plant cost USD 135 million to build and initially to process 800, 000 tonnes month or 9.6million tonnes/ year (producing about 50,000 oz gold/year at around 50% recovery)so that would take 13 years to process the full lot .We know the processing is being increased to 12 m tonnes a year from Jan/ Feb 2026 to increase production to about 62,000/year costing and additional USD 6.5 m, now

USD 141.6 m in total. Presumably they might be able to invest another USD 6.5 to say 8 m to increase production to 15 to 16 m tonnes year or 75,000 oz within 12 -18 months. This would reduce the LOM to 8 years and then they could start on the Soweto cluster.

The" big bang" for the Soweto cluster with around 119 million tonnes would be to build a 12m / year processing plant costing say USD 100 to 120 m ( less than the MTR plant if the Soweto gold concentrate could be transported to the MTR for processing) but this could take 2 years to construct and where will the gold price be then ?

Viable, the Soweto cluster tailings contain about 0.31 grams/ tonne of gold , assuming a 50% recovery , if they want to produce 50,000 oz /year of gold i reckon they will need to process roughly 12 million tonnes of tailings/ year so i think the plant would cost over USD 100 million?

That is an interesting slant of the short position which I had not considered but I would hope that PAF has done their environmental homework.

Viable, will there be Rainbow concessions on the Soweto cluster? My understanding is that we bought it from Mintails in 2022. Another consideration is that if PAF owns the land which I believe they do then once cleared in around 10-12 years they could sell this big asset near Jburg for a big numbers.

I presume your capex number is a typo, it will be interesting the tens of millions.

Allan Gray selling down is a disappointment but they are just taking a bit of profit and still remain the biggest shareholder. As you point out it looks like the opportunity has been used for other institutions to hoover up a chunk of the share, today the buys considerably outnumbered the sells despite the gold price dipped aback below$3700.

atm, you are right, the geographical diversification helps, and with the majority of the gold produced from tailings it takes a massive chunk of risk off rhe table.

At 84.2p we are already above Edison's latest prediction just yesterday implying 89.05p for FY26 but that was based on a lower gold price.

Other things being equal I still think we will not see £1 until after the interim accounts are out in February next year , we needs firm evidence that the growth in production is real,but who knows!