Member Info for Mike1959

Good to read that PAF will be joining the FTSE 250 next week!

Bustard, I agree, all of the gold miners seem to be volatile and focusing on the very short term gold price movement on the day rather than the bigger picture or the gold price in the medium term.

We have a few markers in the next few months, on 9th Dec the dividend payment, as Tigger suggests, hopefully a production report first half Dec or first half Jan, in January the FS for White Devil and hopfully production targetted for July 2026.The FS for the Soweto Cluster should have been completed in September so will the BOD push the go button or wait just a bit longer for the cashflow to improve and proof that the gold price is not going to collapse before they commit to investing $130 million in a stand alone processing plant plus pipeline and pumping stations to transfer the ore slurry from Soweto to the processing plant.. Finally the H1 accounts for July to Dec 2025 will be out in February, if production has gone to plan the numbers will be spectacular, in particular I believe the business will be net cash rich from December onwards after $150.5 million of net debt at the end of June. Then the share price would rerate. That should propel the share price well above £1 and possibly nearer to the levels mentioned today by Westof England. Providing the gold price maintains current levels or improves I think the net cash position could be over $250 million by the end of June 2026 which would be amazing timing given the high capex spend in the last 3 years and allow a dramatic increase in the Dec 2026 dividend.

Yes they have to sell the gold to the state gold refinery but that does not stop them hedging through a financial broker.

Share price down 4.24% here and 4.16% on JSE which is a bigger drop than other gold shares so hoping for a rebound later.

Emmerson Resources have finally announced their MRE update on ASX in a 24 page report. Indicated ore at White Devil has increased from 4.6 to 4.7 million tonnes with an indicated increase of 18,600 oz Resource, possibly the numbers have underwhelmed and but for me an increase is an increase even if only relstively small and there is a greater confidence in the numbers.More important for me is that the total Tennant Resources ( thst is the5 sites of White Devil,Golden Forty,Black Snake, Eldorado and Mauretania) has increased to 7.00 million tonnes averaging a high gold content of 4.4grams/ tonne or 992,200 oz contained gold( 87% indicated) at a recovery of 94% that is 930,000 oz of gold ,at a gold price of say USD 4000/oz that is a total value of 3,720 million. At the current Nobles Nob processing capacity of 840,000 tonnes/year it would take 8.4 years to process 7.00 million tonnes which is equivalent to USD 442 million of gold revenue just out of Australia.

On reflection the share price has got to see this as a big step forward.

Huxl, I do not disagree with your numbers and I do not begrudge the famiy being extremely entrepreneurial to get their foot in the door in rhe first place and reap the rewards. But the shareholders appear to be kept in the dark, we are told there are agreed milestones valuing the new Karo shares hoovered up by Tharisa but we are never told what those valuations are.By the time Tharisa has increased their shareholding in KMH to 80% this will have cost around $233 million (possibly more if the milestones change).80% of KMH at $233 million imputs an entity value on KMH of $291 million and on Karo Platimum of $342 million yet Mr Market values THS at around $375 million.

On a more posative not the full accounts are expected on 1st December and as I expect the Headline EPS tobe down by more than 20% from the previous year we should get a SENS/RHS announcing this next week.

Thunderbuddy, once again thank you for your kind words! Glad that we agree on EDV. I remember we exchanged a few chats in 2024 on THS and I totally understand your stance but I retain a relatively small investment.

I never like to brag about my victories for several reasons, firstly some people like to tell you about their victories but not their losses, second you never know what is round the corner and third we all have different investing styles and attitude to risk.

We are aligned to the future possibilities in gold and particularly PAF. At the moment it is a waiting game, the market needs to see that the expected growth in volume this year is real and has not been delayed.The updated MRE for White Devil was expected in October so hopefully it is out soon and the FS promised for December has now been delayed to early 2026.As others have said, hopefully we will get an operational update by mid December but we might have to wait until January.I just have to follow my own mantra and be patient!

...my suggested share dilution should read about 15.737 new share for one old share ( not 6 as suggested below). Otherwise I am happy with my numbers.

Sam, ....you spoke too soon!

Seriously though the Index usually drops this time of year up to theChristmas break and before the Chinese New Year, so let us see what happens!

I have had another look at the numbers. At the end of March 2025 when our shareholding in KMH had increased to 77.31% the total Tharisa equity investment was $175 million although I agree that only about $160 million of this has been spend as of now with the balance still to be spent.

At the end of September 2024 there were 57,032 issued shares in KMH so I was surprised to see that the new 43,104 ordinary shares boght in KMH by Tharisa in the 6 months to end of March 2025 only represented only 1.09% of the issued share capital in KMH. After some thought I have come to the conclusion that KMH has done a share dilution, issuing 6 new shares for one old share, so that although the number of shares increased x6, the percentage owned by Tharisa and Leto has remained the same. I do not know if Ilja can or wants to confirm that?

So if Tharisa increases our shareholding in KMH to 80% as promised, an extra 2.69%, this will increase our equity investment to at least $233 million.

If the peak capex investment is now $546 million and Tharisa puts in $233million and the VFEX bond $37 million then that leavesaround $276 million to be found else where. At an interest rate of say 7%/year ( which is low by current Tharisa borrowings) that $276 million becomes $295 million if delayed for 12 months.

Athunderbuddy, I agree that South Africa/Australia are safer jurisdictions than west Africa. But EDV has x4 the market cap of PAF, has a great track history of operating its main mines and dealing with the local politics and with an AISC of only USD 1362/oz YTD, is incredibly cash rich and pays a reasonable dividend with buybacks on top. As one of the 'elephants' in the industry they grew their gold production by a massive 23% for the 12 months to 30th September 2025 with adjusted net earnings +375%. If they can do that just imagine what the PAF numbers will look like.To answer your question with EDV currently on a forward PE of about 13 and PAF on about 6 ,my investment in PAF is about x10 bigger than in EDV, the forward potential growth for PAF looks so much better.

Thanks for your kind words but sage is easily burnt and this site is really a community effort where everyone chips in to get various opinions and insight.

I have never been in SLP but for my sins i have been invested at various levels in THS since covid . I have totally the same concerns that you have voiced and if you checkout the THS chat you will see my rants over many years.On paper it is still incredibly undervalued but carries lots of baggage and will soon add over $300 millon of debt to finance the Zim mine and underground expansion in S Africa.

So PAF is my biggest gold miner followed by GGP.GLA

Patryk, likewise welcome back!

Jammin, I agree that gold looks choppy but at least is seems to have stabilised above 4000. The daily share price seems to be equally choppy , rising and falling with the daily gold price. I prefer the longer term picture and the fundamentals, to quote Benjamin Graham yet again , "in the short run,the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine".

Excellent 9 month numbers yesterday from EDV althogh slso down today, fingers crossed for equally good H1 numbers from PAF and likewise ant good news from the AGM next Thursday.

Hi viable, I think you are spot on with your closing sentence. Between Soweto and TCMG will keep PAF bussy for the next 2 t0 5 years and has already stated the preference for tailings first which are considerably cheaper in terms of capex and AISC, faster and less risk. If the gold price increases over the next few years as some have suggested then once the low fruit have been picked, only then PAF reconsider further aquisitions and further underground extensions.

Gariboldired, Bustard had previosly explsined it well so please check it out. Basically a technical mistake but to rectify needs approval by the AGM and then by a court. It will not financially affect the accounts or share price, there was some initial cencern but has now been understood and should not affect the share price.

Waterloo, glad that you are back in.

Patryk, as CaneToad suggests it is never too late, but I can understand it is a painful lesson if you have to buy in at a higher price that when you sold out.

I must admit that I was surprised yesterday that we increased over 5% when the gold price increased by about 2%. But the gold price was a 2 week high and is showing signs of stabilising above $4000, having shaken off a chunk of froth are we going to creep up again. As many have said, if it just stabilises around $4000 then the share price will grow as broker reports are still based on lower gold prices but will start to catch up.

Bustard, I totally agree that there is so much good news to trickle out on PAF. But just like Christmas day for a 10 year old, it might look a long way from now but we will get there!

Hi rax, thanks for your numbers, a valiant attempt but I still disagree with some of your numbers which shows how complicated this is.

Karo Platimum is ownwd 85% by Karo Mining Holdings and 15% by the Zim govermnent as a free carry. In turn Karo Mining Holdings as at 31st March 2025 was owned 77.31% by Tharisa plc and the balance by Medway/Leto ( the family investment vehicle). Tharisa has stated their intention to increase this 77.31% to 80% during this year but so far we do not officially know if this has been done or not and should know more in the 2025 full year accounts in December.

To get to 80% Hxul and I had calculated early this year that Tharisa would have to spend $7184 for each new ordinary share so increasing the total equity investment to over $232 m but now the plot thickens.In the interim accounts to 31 March 2025 on page 39 "During the period ending31March 2025, Karo Mining [Holdings] issued an additional 43,104 new ordinsry shars for a cash subscription of US$19.7 million to the Company[Tharisa]. The additional shares issued represented 1.09% of the issued share capital of Karo Mining which increased the Company's shareholding to 77.31%. The non- controlling shareholders [Medway] did not subscibe for additional sshares". The good news is that this tranche of new shares only cost Tharisa $457 each which is considerably loeer than the previous tranche and assuming this price remains the same to increase the Tharisa shareholding to 80% then Thasisa will pay considerably less than $232 m which is something that many of us have been suggesting for months. The Company has been keeping this extremely vague and if I was of a suspicious nature I might suggest that this is to mislead and confuse shareholders.

Glad that we now agree that the peak capex spend as of today is $546 million but this number will increase daily until the button is finally pushed. Incidentally according to the KMH H1 accounts,the capex spend on Karo in H1/2025 was only around $8 million and I suspect not much more in H2 so it has really been slashed back.

We agree that very roughly two-thirds of the capex for Karo has yet to be found. Thanks for your help with the extensive numbers.

Bustard, I would suggest the share price is 90% or more down to the gold price.

I am sure PAF listens to shareholders regarding forward hedging strategies, possibly some forwad put options would be a compromise but us shareholders begrudge losing market rises so the board have a thankless task.

Totally agree that if the gold price holds around the current level for the foreseeable future then the share price will rerate.

Rax,just to try and get the latest cost of building Karo the circular to bondholders had to legally provide up to date and honest information and advises "the updated mine development entails a peak spend of US$546 million with first ore in mill 15 months after financial close" . So let us all agree that the current capex spend is $546 million. If Tharisa eventually invests just over €232 m and the bond renewal is $37m then that leaves approx $277 million to find rather than the out of date $175 million thst you mention before.An ECIC loan has been mentioned in the past but I have not seen mention of it recently, just saying that is old informstion and it might be on the cards but it might not. Even back in January this year, KMH had announced that it was in an "advanced" stage of securing $225 m in debt fundung, but I can understand this takes time. You say no equity dilution and that Karo keeps 75% and no new shares, but Karo already owns over 76% and has already committed to increase this to 80% (it might have already happened but we will not find out until the full accounts are out in December) but I would like to know if Medway plan to invest some of the required funds but I expect the answer to be no.

HVerwoerd, this information about Adonis Pouroulis is nothing new but I agree it does suggest a possible conflict of interest and who really pulls the strings and why nothing is being done to hold Chariot accountable for building the solar farm as agreed.

Rax,yes Tharisa gets paid 2 .6 % by Karo for acting as guarantor. But this is in addition to the 11% that Karo has to pay to any business that invests into the bond. So overall Karo is paying 13.6% in total, although 2.6% stays in the group.

Rax,

The renewed bond is not at the cheaper group cost of 8.4%. The cost to the business increases from 9.5% to 11.0%. The guarantee of 2.6%/ year is on top of and paid by the issuer (KMH) to the guarantor (Tharisa) so I agree this part stays in the group.

Also you suggest first concentrate is due in 2026 , admittedly some is being prodeced not on a pilot plant scale but PP has said that First Ore In Mill on a commercial scale would be 15 months from when the funding was in place,so even in funding would be in place today that takes us to early 2027 at the earliest.

I have just checked the VFEX and found a circular to bonders owners to decide if they want to renew their bond from Dec 2025 to Dec 2028 with the coupon increasing from 9.5% to 11.0%. The decision will be made public on Tuesday 11th November.

Certain information in the circular has been provided, updated capex for KMH is now $546 million and in H1/2025 KMH lost $1.09 million after tax.