Member Info for Mike1959

Viable, I think PAF's net debt will be eliminated by next month.

Hi rax, ha ha!

Rax, I agree the improving platinum price is partly due to the improving hydrogen demand.But also partly due to the fantastic current prices for gold and silver reflecting the geo-political times. In the 1990's and early noughties the gold and platinum prices were similar but since the 2008 financial crisis the gold price has been higher than the platinum price, today platinum is just 54% of the price of gold . As the gild price increases it is also sucking up the price of platinum and we might even see the gap reduce for the reason you explain.

Guys, all great comments this morning.Another all time high for platinum this morning and another all time high for the Tharisa pgm price at over $3100oz, even taking inflation into account this is now above the previous high in 2021.

....yes, the gold price seems to be $4945, so I expect this to trade 2 to 3% higher today even without the RNS which I hope will now be Monday.

Sotolo, I make the Tharisa basket pgm basket price ywsterday around USD 3058/oz.

I think you are out on your platinum content at 43%. I get it between 52 to 56%.

We know that in December, Tharisa has appointed the Spanish company, EPSA, to complete the construction and act as contractor for the first 5 years of open pit operations with yellow fleet starting Jan/Feb and waste removal starting by March with suggested production starting in mid-2027.We have been told that FOIM would start 15 months after approval of the required ~ USD 300 million financing so the Board must be very very sure that this financing will be in place and announced very very shortly.The all time pgm basket price certainly helps!

Even without Karo,based on the current pgm and chrome prices I make the 2026 profit after tax as over USD 160 million, which is a PE of just 3.0

Raxfactor, good work.It has been a long time, if ever, since the Tharisa PGM basket price was above $3000. The payable amount to Tharisa is roughly 83%.

Another all time high for the platinum price, currently around $2523.

I reckon around 96 cents or 71.5p.

I expect the Operational Update RNS on Friday 23rd or Monday 26th Jan but in the past it has been as late as 1st Feb (admittedly that was 2019).

To get 150p I think the production would have to be in the upper half of the 130,000 to 137,000 oz PAF guidance which looks a big ask to me. Fortunately the all time high gold price is certainly helping at the moment.

......just to be clear, my expected Jan to Dec PAT is around USD 51 million or PE 6.9 at yesterday's share price.

But based on forward 2026 production of 53,900 to 57,000 and current share price your PE of 3.3 sounds reasonable.

Chrome price has increased from USD 269.5 to USD 276 this week.

Good spot viable!

It does reflect their strategy of slightly selling down some of their metals winners while still retaining the majority . Just shows a different philosophy between major investors and PI's and S Africa compared to UK. and rest of world. To balance things out It is always good to have a perspective from other people/organisations/ countries!

Patryk, I agree that if the H2 gold price averages USD 5600 then 2026 PAT will be way way way above USD 500 million. Even if the H2 gold price averages USD 4600 (I assume this is the number that you meant) then PAT would be around USD 500 million if we hit the target production numbers.

Production in H1 last year was 84,705 oz, PAF has suggested target production for H1 /2026 (July to Dec 2025) of 131,000 to 137,000 oz. What I mean when I say the PAF share price is already slightly ahead of itself is that we have not had any official information that the 131,000 to 137,000 oz will be achieved. As I mentioned there has been heavy rain in S Africa in Nov/Dec that could slow down some of the tailings operations or the Tennants Creek ramp up could have been delayed, just saying it is a possibility and not that this is a suggestion. If the H1 operational report is out in the next 5-7days then we will know the H1 production numbers. For me , anything above 127,000 oz would be fantastic and represent a 50% increase on the previous H1. if the number is 131,000 + oz then even better and give us the faith for 275,000 to 292,000 oz for the full year. I would be disappointed in the number is below 127,000 oz. We should know by next week, we just need to be patient but should expect a few shakes of the tree until then .If the H1 production numbers are as expected then we can be assured of fantastic interim accounts on 18th Feb with an indicated EPS a few days before.

I am also invested in GGP, SRB ,ALTN,HOC but my biggest holding is in PAF.

Patryk, I feel your frustration, 2.5 m sales, 4.2 m buys but we are still down today! The share price is very nervy at the moment

I feel that GGP is an equally good good investment buy just on a different investment trajectory at the moment.

In a way, the PAF share price is already slightly ahead of itself. We need an operational report in the next week (we know that the S African rain has been bad this summer) and then fingers crossed for good H1 interim numbers in Feb!

Keep the faith!

Numbers slightly down on my expectations but reasonable for Q1, the improved yields is excellent news if carried on for the rest of the year. The stored reef of mine on the pad awaiting milling must be relatively low.

Regarding the net cash being down, this reflects the capex spend at Karo and Tharisa as we transition to underground mining. Don't forget that while the big tax release after the successful court ruling went straght into profit it did not change the cash position at all.

Oufc, I agree.

LL, I disagree that it can be financwd straight from FCF (yes, Q1 production numbers will be out in the next few days).

The Jerome Powell news will push us up today.

The Jerome Powell news should push prices higher today.

Roofer/tigger, I agree. Allan Gray were the 3rd largest invester in PAF and after this they remain the 3rd biggest investor in PAF.After making a chunk of money they are creaming off some of that gain to invest elsewhere just like many PI's.

The fundamentals have not changed.

Lucky, yes rhe price/book and enterprise value do look crazy but it has been like this for over 5 years. With the prwvious skeletons a rise on fundamentals will be later rarher than soiner.

The chrome price increasing to USD 269.5 /tonne today is a step in the right direction Don' t forget that the production costs this year will be steeply higher due to the stronger ZAR against USD.

Even if the final Karo financing was agreed today it would be minimum 15 months to first ore in mill and then probably take a minimum of 6 months to ramp up production to the 200,000 oz/year level.