Member Info for Mike1959

....hopefully the 6 months operations report for July to Dec 2025 should be out around 19th Jan. This will include gold production and an indicated AISC , health and safety and some brief operational information.

GGP published their production numbers for Oct to Dec 2025 yesterday.

......keep calm and carry on !

Hopefully a production report around 19th Jan with the interim accounts on 18th Feb. But as revenue and EPS will be up over 20% on last year , under S African rules, PAF will have to issue SENS/RNS 3-5 days before with an indicated interim EPS. So hopefully we have this by 14th Feb. I am expecting an EPS of 9.2c compared to 2.35 in H1/2025 (and considerably higher in the current H2/2026, WITH THE USUAL CAVEAT, if the gold price does not fall.

Cracksniper, I have also been in here since beginning of last year. I agree on the predictions .Many analysts would not have been interesting in reporting on PAF while on AIM, This should gradually change with PAF now in the top 20% of FTSE 250 companies . Similarly the coverage of commodity businesses like PAF can be limited. The final factor is just how up to date is the information when production numbers and particularly the price of gold is changing so rapidly.

I see that the Investors Chronicle has 4 analysts with 12 month price targets averaging 127.4p and a high of 134.81p, no doubt some of these targets are over 6 months old. On 15th Dec Berenberg , in my eyes, one of the more accurate banks, issued a target price of 125p but at the time the gold price was $4276, still below the previous high of $4381 which we have now breached. On the same day Edison issued their latest report with a price of 134.64p based on a current gold price of $4200, it is clear that the Edison forecast 2026 IFRS P+L is way behind the curve on revenue and costs , I suspect that PAF does not yet want to disclose certain information or work on the current gold price in the numbers. My personal investment style follows Jim Slaters's, the Zulu Principle, by narrowing the coverage and with some up to date number crunching , a private investor can generate more meaningful information than a technical analyst who checks the numbers every 2 to 6 months and might have to be politically careful. what they report. I totally agree with Bustard below, the first 6 months of the financial year are already locked in but IF the average gold price stays above $4300/oz until the end of June and we hit the bottom of the production range which is 275,000 oz then revenue will exceed $1.1 BILLION and Profit After Tax would be around $455 million putting us on a forward PE of 7.3 at todays share price. Happy to have the numbers critiqued. Obviously if the gold price falls then the numbers will be lower, it is frustrating that this is totally out of the hands of PAF or us but we have enjoyed the spoils on the way up. costs will be noticeably higher in H2, I am suggesting a AISC for H1 of about $1635 but using the current USD ZAR exchange rate at 16.43 the AISC in H2 would be over $1700 and in the final Quarter PAF has to pay about USD 9 million to Emerson Resources

I m not surprised that the share price is down over 5% this morning ,but the buys still outweigh the sells by 2 to 1 so i expect this number to reduce late this afternoon.

Bustard, I agree that more tailings would be great but with current market conditions there would be plenty of competition and we would have to pay top dollar but we need that 10 year forward pipeline to avoid a dramatic dip. The high gold price will increase the current reserves as the marginal resource becomes more economically viable.

LL, I assume you mean a weaker not stronger USD against other currencies.

Even if pgm and chrome prices stay where they are for the rest of this financial year the revenue from pgm' s will be similar but not greater than revenue from chrome.

I very roughly calculate the forward PE as around 3.8 but given the previous skeletons in the cupboard I do not see this reaching 6. We still need to find around USD 300 million to finance Karo so news on this would be fantastic.

....strange that the share price is currently up 6.33% yet the official sells slightly exceed the buys, let us see what happens to the UT's at close of play.

Metis/GLR, the pgm basket composition changes very slightly all the time, in the Q4 2025 production report for YE 30 th Sept 2025 platinum was 52.8%;palladium 15.9%;rhodium 10.5%.

For Tharisa I use pt 56.3%,pd 17.8%rh 9.97%au 0.03%,ru 11.3% ir 4.4%. For Karo I use pt 42.16, pd 39.71,rh 3.92, au 8.33,ru 4.41, IR 1.96. Generally i am within $30/oz to the THS published number. Possibly the THS pgm basket price also includes a small credit for copper.

Check out the Motley Fool srticle today , "What's next for thebest -performing FTSE 250 stock of 2025?".

.....also the Karo basket price today is around $2428/oz compared to the $2140/oz us3d for the original 2022 project justification.

LL,the pgm basket price you mention of $2434.22/oz was on 22nd Dec. Ilja will probably not return frim holiday until some time next week so THS will not publish another one until then. But based on the current prices I make the Tharisa basket price today $2750/oz. Although platinum and palladium are down over the last few days the rhodium price is going ballistic.

.....I should have added that if the Warrengo ore can be processed and sold from Warrengo into a copper gold concentrate and does not need to go through a CIL processing plant then production might start in the early 2030's. Copper would roughly represent two thirds of the value and gold about one third so I can imagine that this is literallynew territory for PAF.

Viable, the Warrengo copper and gold project definitive feasibility study that you mention is underway with completion expected by June 2026 ( the earlier prefeasibility study was completed in early 2025).

But we already know that the current 840,000 tonnes/ year CIL processing plant will be debottlenecked and production increased to 1 million tonnes/ year. Even then the plant will be running at full capacity with feed from nearer mines with considerably higher gold contents for the next 8 to 15 yeara. The Sept 2025 Edison report suggested that Warrengo could be fast tracked with first production in 2029/30 at a capital cost of USD 40 to 45million. But the last mineral resource was 16.5 million tonnes containing 1.3% copper and only 1.1 gram/tonne gold.Even if this resource was converted 100% to an economically viable reserve, which is impossible, then processing 1 million tonnes/ year would give about 33,000 oz gold and about 12,000 tonnes copper/year.

But the processing capacity for this is already fully committed for the next 8 to 15 years. A new dedicated 1 million tonnes/year production plant would be needed but I think the cost will be too prohibitive for the next few years, perhaps close to USD 200 million, and the geology of Warrengo is very complex and treating gold and copper together will be totally new technology to us and add additional precessing costs,unless the gold price continues to rise I do not see production starting at Warrengo until the mid 2030's or later.

On a more positive note, a 5 MW solar farm was planned at the Nobles Nob plant with construction to start between Oct 2025 to March 2026, so hopefully this will be confirmed shortly and with an expected operational date for about 12 months which will reduce but not totally replace the need for diesel generators.

Bustard, HNY to you and all readers too. Totally agree with your comments.If the gold price was to stay exactly where it is , which it won't, Iike you I could see the share price increasing by 50% in the next 12 months which would still be be a reasonable 2026 PE of around 10.7, which would give us a net margin after tax of above 40% and a gross margin of over 60%, not many businesses out there have those numbers!

For the H1 production I am expecting between 127,000 to 137,000 ozs.At say 133,500 oz, based on my numbers, that would give us revenue of around USD 509 m, PBT USD 273 m and Profit After Tax 199 million. As you say, we need the gold price to stay kind!

With the financial markets now closed in London for the New Year, I reckon for the first half of the current financial year we have locked in a gold price of USD 3801/oz and average exchange rate USD/ ZAR 17.38.

Hopefully we will get a good H1 production report around 19th January and then the interim accounts on 18th February. We just need to avoid a big drop in the gold price during H2 which I think we will but with some jitters along the way.

A prosperous and healthy New Year to all PAF holders!

Viable, the Tennant Creek Exploration JV Committee announced yesterday that it had agreed an exploration budget of AUD 6.9 million for Q1/26 at the White Devil and Golden Forty South sites. PAF will pay 75% and Emmerson Resources 25%.

At the current gold price Emmerson Resources expects to receive around AUD 20 m as production payments from PAF between April- August 2026.

Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas and healthy/ prosperous New Year !

Bustard/Patryk, on the Edison report, most of this was updating previous information and adding in the Soweto Cluster news. I partly agree that the valuation of estimated life of operations and maximum dividend using a 10% NPV discount rate for US dividends looks anomalous with US base rate at 3.5 to 3.75% and major banks prime rate around 7%.But for me the comparison shoukd be against S African rates where the repo rate is 6.75% with a likely premium of 2 to 3% on top of that and the prime lending rate by the major banks to good customers is around 10.25%. So I do not mind the discounted cashflow method and NPV 10 used. As you point out Bustard this does not include any potential new reserves or extensions to life of mine and gives absolutely no value to assets which could technically be sold off. Even then ,in exhibit 12 using gold at $4200/oz for 2026 to 2030 just using the maximum potential discounted dividends ( and no value for the assets or possible longer LOM) this value is is 180.75 c or 134.64p which is considerably higher than the current share price. But this metric is not used by most of us, if we use PE or PEG, the report does say that PAF remains relatively cheap compaired to peer gold miners.

Regarding your comments about lack of information.

Firstly if the Operational Update is out on say 19th Jan then companies often impose a 30 day closed period to sensitive market information which includes they cannot give sensitive information to Edison before the information is released to the general public. Secondly , as we have discussed before, we would rather the management concentrate on the complexities of the business rather than be tied to having to spend excessive time on information to the market. Thirdly , even if there has been a lack of information we cannot argue that it has hurt rhe share price. I just think that we are eager for more information but just have to be patient. I know that even GGP has been accused of being understated and too conservative in the past but for me I would always like the actual numbers exceed the expectation rather than the other way round.

I did say a few weeks ago that I expected the business to be net cash rich by the end of rhe year, but I have made a mistake in my calculation and now expect it to be Feb/ March next year!

Tigger , 5th Jan 2026 is too soon to accumulate actual production numbers for July to Dec 2025.Christmas/New Year holidays in S Africa and Australia are similar to UK if not slightly longer as they are in their southern hemisphere summer. So I would suggest the Operational Update will be out WC 19th January and then the interim accounts on 18th Feb.

Gonsan/sam/krusty, not sure if the compulsory share reduction will be at parity, at NAV or somewhere inbetween, I would think somewhere inbetween based on the average share price the week before? TMIP still need to keep some excess funds to cover a loss in current and next quarter. So better to play it same now and then payout the outstanding NAV if the business is eventuslly sold or taken privste as Sam suggests.

Krusty - thanks for your ideas, I too have CTY,MNG,LGEN and PHNX and AV too.Thanks for the others which I will check out, hope you still have your gold mining shares as I am still incredibly positive for 2026 but still all of the usial risks.

Shareminator, you are correct about H1 2025, I had expected a loss after tax of -USD 8 million when the actual number was Profit After tax of USD 8.2 million.

Again you are right that USD 13.6 million went onto the full year balance sheet as royalty receivables. But on the PL the mining royalty reversal is showing as +USD 67.31 million so if the mining royalty reversal had not happened snd assuming no changes to Cost of Sales or operating expenses, the full year profit before tax would have been USD 50 3 million and profitt after tax USD 33.1 million which is actually lower than my expected number you repeat below.

We agree that the increasing pgm basket is a big plus. Platinum over $1800 today and the EU has cancelled and watered down the ban on ICE's after 2035.

Shareminator, I think "doth protest too much"!

Firstly I think I was nearer to the ballpark of the H 1 numbers, please let me know if you wish to discuss.

Secondly, the main reason the full year PBT was so strong was because it included the Mining Royalty reversal of $67.3 million in H2 which I and absolutely no one else, including you had anticipated.

Thirdly, and to a lesser extent, while I was expecting a rebound in pgm prices, I totally concede that fortunately the recovery in the PGM basket in H2 was much better than even I and probably you had thought possible.

Without the Mining Royalty reversal and if the Pgm recovery had been only 50 % of the actual number then I would have been correct. But the reality is different, I do not mind admitting I was wrong that is why we have these conversations/debates.

Even at current pgm prices, the majority of revenue is coming fron chrome rather than pgms and while fortunately pgm prices continue to increase, the chrome price has weakened over the last few weeks.