Member Info for Mike1959

Patryk, I do not think that the increased chance that Warsh gets the job is the reason for the gold fall, I actually think the opposite, as a Trump puppet he would lower intesest rates which would be supportive of the gold price and weaken the USD rather than weaken the gold price.

Instead the big drop yesterday is a big short term reaction to the gold price overextending itself over the last week or so (hopefully not the last 3 to 6 months). We could only dream of a gold price above $5000 just last month.The longer term gold picture is still in place even if somewhat delayed.

Patryk, 120p but probably shouldn't say !

Bustard, possibly, but you have to pick a nember and I think this number is below a " normal" treeshake and would still give me a x4 increase and still leaves 60% of my PAF shares. We have under 3 weeks to wait for the interims on 18th Feb and even less for the indicative EPS RNS.

After such a big gold price increase we had to expect more volalility.This has a feel of the the October drop when the gold price was around $4281.

Stay calm and carry on, enjoy your holiday.

Musard, I am with you the announced transaction is missing the previos position but this is a sale as Rance Holdings oqned 12.73% of the shares a few months ago and nowseem to have reduced to 9.45%. They have been a major shareholder for a long time so this seems to be part of a gradual reduction.

Ray, spot on, you must have been a detective if your former life! Glad to read that you are enjoying the ride and by all means chip in!

.....rhodium $12,000 not 1200.

...yep, Karo basket now officially above $3000. Gold now trading above $5500. I agree that platinum should be above $3000 tomorrow and rhodium should be up to $1200 and iridium up to $7500 in a few weeks?

Cracksniper, certainly old! As I have said before , we work as a team with many different perspectives which hopefully benefits us all.

Charles, I agree that selling some copper concentrates is great but if say only 25 to 40% copper content then these will possibly be exported to China so we will not get top Dollar and will probably have to wait longer for final payment.

But I agree that with Warrengo copper-gold production likely to start in 3 to 5 years this gives us more experience of dealing with copper concentrates. Fortunately copper prices are on the rise too.

BlueDefender, I totally agree that this was a good point from Bustard. The number you mention of over 40 million oz is the Resources rather than the Reserves. The resources includes inferred, indicated and measured gold content but much of this would not be economic to recover where as the reserves effectively include the contained economic resources. As at 30th June 2025 the estimated gold resources were 42.87 million oz while the estimated reserves were only 12.98 million oz, roughly 30% of the resources. If contained gold production is about 500,000 oz/year with recovered gold content of say 325,000 oz (the rough estimate for 2027) then there would be very roughly 25 years of production.

With the massive increase in gold price I suspect in the next MRE as at 30th June 2026 to be published in September, the reserves will represent a much higher percentage of the resources, say 35 to 40%.Plus we know the MRE figures at Tennant have seriously increased in the last 6 months. So I would expect the reserves at 30th June 2026 to exceed 14 million oz. PAF has a good track history of spending more capex on exploration to keep the MRE numbers from dramatically falling. Increasing resources/reserves at our underground mines generally means going deeper, Evander is already working 2.4 km below ground and Barberton 2.5 km, so these are only going to get more expensive year on year , possibly with their AISC's exceeding $2500/oz next year. I agree with Bustard that we should be looking for more tailings with a considerably lower AISC and risk, but these will be lots of competition and I am sure that PAF is already doing this. It is a balance between quantity and quality. Using a Discounted Cash Flow valuation method is useful but beyond 10 to 15 years the values become so negligible so that there is no real incentive to pay exploration costs well in advance to extend resources/reserves beyond say 15 years particularly if we do not know what the gold price or the AISC will be doing down the line. So on balance, I am happy with the current MRE.

Greygeorge, great point.Although the 94.41 cents is locked in I suppose the actual exchange rate used for GBP shares will be 30th Jan, the Redemption Date. As you say, at the current exchange rate of 1.38 = 68.4p

Bustard, as usual we are on the same wave length, using your numbers of 325,000 oz production/sales and AISC of $1800/oz I get the Profit After Tax as $724 million. Unfortunately I think the AISC will be significantly higher, the USD continues to weaken, today $/ZAR 15.89 compared to the average for July to Dec 2025 of 17.31, plus more royalties and more staff bonuses with the higher share price. But even with a AISC of say $2000/oz the Profit After Tax reduces to 679 million which is only a forward PE of 6.

Based on Monday's operational numbers with the AISC at say $1850, for the interim numbers out on 18th Feb (with a RNS on the expected EPS out a few days before) I am now expecting a Profit After Tax of $169 million or an EPS of 8.4 cents. Using the actual January average gold price and assuming $5100/oz for Feb to June with H2 production of 150,500 oz and AISC of $1880/oz, for the full financial year that is a PAT of $490 million which is a PE of 8.2 . I do not see that PE going above 10, but that is still a potential 20% increase between now to September when the full accounts are know.

As we have said before, it is all about what the gold price is going to do!

Patryk,certainly holding and expecting higher levels on balance, but we will see dramatically higher volatility to challenge our views before 18th Feb. I have set stop losses to sell 40% of my shares at 20% below current levels which will still give a masssive gain if executed.

I was unaware of the staff bonus related to share price which seriously increased the AISC in H1 (best of luck to the workforce, they desrve to benefit too, particulsrly given the risks) so I do not see the AISC improving in H2 but actually increasing based on the current exchange rate.

Patryk, yes all gold/ silver/ pgm miners down today despite higher prices. I think there is now a serious nervousness/reality bubble that something has to give soon in the world economy.

Holding these gold shares is totally the way forward iIFwe are eventually allowed to hold them and our apparent holdings are not taken away or diluted in any way.

Sam,

No doubt you are in Ko Samui so enjoy, heavy wind and rain here today!

I agree it does not make sense to sell now at 63p if you can get 70p plus the dividend by waiting to Feb. After the compulsory buybacks, theoretically the share price should not fall off a cliff as the reduced number of shares still have the same NAV per share as before but for some,human nature might decide it is time to reduce or sell up when the future dividend payout is more uncertain.The BOD still have skin in the game and are working to see the business prosper. GLA.

Krusty, thanks for your kind consideration. In the Oct-Dec 2025 quarter TMI had a loss of USD 3.2 million (a big improvement from the loss of USD 20.8 million for July to Sept 2025) or an EPS of -1 cent but still paid a dividend of 2c/share costing USD 6.6 million so if the dividend payment would have only been 1 c/share or or USD 3.3 million then the business would have roughly broken even. In the current quarter the business will still pay out 2 c dividend (for Oct- Dec), debt interest costs will be substantially lower but with a smaller fleet the TC revenue will be lower and head office costs split over a smaller number of vessels plus new TC's seem to have fallen since December so I am expecting another small loss for the current quarter.

The business simply cannot continue to pay 2c dividend each quarter and lose money every quarter if they want a sustainable business particularly with the vessels expected to reduce in value every quarter as they naturally get older. and will eventually need replacing. So for the next quarter , or possibly delayed to the one after that I would expect the dividend to be cut to 1c/quarter which I think would give the downsized business the chance to make small nominal possibly even respectable quarterly profits in the current business climate. Eventually over 5-10 years they will need bigger profits just to afford to replace some of the older vessels. Even a reduction to 1c/quarter dividend or 4 c/year would still represent a 4.7% dividend yield at the current share price which compares to just 2.90% for the average FTSE 100 business. GLA

Did anybody see the announcement by Caledonia Mining Corp Plc last week (they have a market cap 14% bigger than THS) and make a mental comparison to Karo?

At a total cost of about USD 584 million Caledonia are constructing the Bilboes gold mine in Zimbabwe with estimated production of 200,000 oz/yr for at least 10 years starting production late 2028. To finance this Caledonia has raised USD 150 million through a 7 year convertible bond (was x3 oversubscribed with a cash interest coupon of 5.875%/year paid semi-annually) plus USD 150 million facility with Zim and S African banks, also some project finance with regional lenders to be processed in the current quarter and the remaining balance, roughly 30% will be financed internally.

In contrast THS will invest roughly USD 499 million to develop Karo with suggested production to start mid-2027, roughly 40% will have been internally financed (USD 193 million on internal finance and the VFEX bond combined, the latter at a considerably higher coupon) then the balance of about USD 300 million hopefully to be announced very shortly and suggested to consist of roughly USD 178 million senior export debt, USD 25 million mezzanine debt and the balance gold stream advance funding or a strategic investor. Hopefully it will all become fully clear very soon.

Also the chrome price is niw $286/tonne, that is a 6.1% increase in the last 2 weeks.

Kenj, I agree, we are now at a much fuller value although still some room to go if the current gold price does not collapse and I am not certain if the previous technical hiccup on the previous share buy- back is fixed or not?Besides the previous buyback was relatively small.

At least with an interim divi ,shareholders have the option to reinvest here or to reinvest elsewhere or spend as they wish.

Sotolo, thanks for your explanation which I now understand. I make the THS basket $3273 based on today's prices.

rax, platinum is now 57% of the gold price and so continues to rerate with the discount slowly coming in. Likewise I think THS is now rerating, we are up more today that pure pgm miners/refiners such as VALT.,IMP,SSW and NPH.

U would be crass if I did not agree that a 51% increase in production was good. The production number of 128,ooo was just above my expected number but below the original guidance of 130,000 to 137,000 oz but more important PAF think they can make up the small shortfall in H2 and are sticking with their guidance of 275,000 to 292,000 oz for the full year. Looks like production at Tennant was slightly lower than expected although unexpectedly it includes some copper units that possibly cannot be processed at Nobles Nob, these things are expected.

With the net debt down to USD 49. million at the end of Dec this should be paid off by the end of Feb/early March. Good news n a possible interim divi as we are throwing out lots of FCF.

The expected AISC of $1825-1875/oz is considerably higher than expected even given the exchange rate, production number and higher royalty costs but at the current gold price the priority must be to get the production out even if the costs are $200/oz more than expected.

With he current gold price at $5088/oz hopefully Patryk will be right on his numbers, we will see in about half an hour!