Member Info for Mike1959

The Q2 FY 2026 production report is out on 14th April and I am expecting production at 38,000 oz PGM and 386,000 tonnes chrome and average prices of $2944/oz for Tharisa PGM basket and $300/tonne for chrome.

The H1 FY 2026 results are out on 21st May and I expect EPS of 28.5 US cents. As this is dramatically higher than the 2.5 US cents for the same period last year we can expect a SENS/RNS with guidance EPS about a week before.

Based on current prices maintained for H2 and production at the mid-guidance points I get FY Profit After Tax as $174 million, an EPS of 58 c and a PE under 2.7.This is being held back by geopolitical events and admittedly there is still a long way to go before the year end and a lot can change. Nevertheless this looks vastly undervalued particularly if Karo is shortly given the go ahead.

Guys, the Jan-March 2026 gold price averaged $4877/oz which is still significantly higher than the $3800/oz for H1. If we assume say $4500/oz for the last 3 months of the financial year and a H2 production of say 150,000 oz and AISC of say $1900/oz (higher diesel costs partly offset by stronger USD/weaker ZAR, I still make the 2026 PE only 9.9 (Profit After Tax around $419 million) based on todays recovered share price of 153.6p.

If the gold price remains above $4700 or the Iran war ends in the next few weeks and the gold price goes back above $5000 then even better. GLA

Mark, which exotic fish are you after this time, beware of the crocs!

Mark, I am just being pig headed after being erked and selling 40% of my holding at 120p.The gold price at around $4600 is broadly where it was in the second week of January when the share price was around 125p.

But like you " my confidence in PAF remains high" but other shareholders are nervous with todays current volume, sells 6.1 million, buys 3.3 million. Buy having seemingly learned my lesson I am considering buying again rather than selling again.

Raxfactor, I agree that a 9% drop for THS feels overdone while most gold miners are down 11-12%. For THS, chrome still accounts for over half of turnover and that is still the highest price since July 2024. Admittedly pgm prices are down today but nowhere near the drop in gold today.

Moneyman64, I totally agree on the 40 mw solar farm, but according to the Global Energy Monitor last month is is now under construction , if that is true then I would expect it to be operational next year but it would be good for THS to confirm this.

Jonny, I have 2 HL accounts with PAF shares, in one the dividend is there but not yet the other so I assume it is imminent.

As we thought it is 0.547p/share less 20% South African withholding tax.

Jammin, again I agree with your comments but in the words of JM Keynes "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Confidence in gold is temporarily shot, higher oil prices are inflationary and will delay interest rate cuts which is bad for gold, the current gold price of $4690 is $245 below the average price so far this year so the momentum has been stopped dead in its tracks, even for PAF , holders are baling out, yesterday sells outnumbered buys by nearly 2:1 and so far today 2.4 million sells and 1.2 million buys.

But longer term I agree with you, the first week of the Iran war has cost the US $11.3 billion, 10 year US Treasuries are now 4.28% compared to 3.96% on 27th Feb (but still lower than the 4.6% they reached in May last year ) . Yesterday the US national debt reached a record high $39 trillion, equivalent to 17% of annual total federal spending with no serious plan how to reduce the number and expected to reach $40 trillion by the November elections. De-risking to US assets does not seem to be a good move, converting to cash is certainly de-risking but will cause falling stock markets and further economic panic. Gold will recover quickly if the Iran war ends quickly, as for $6000 by the end of the year we will have to wait and see.

Tigger, Likewise I am holding on this time, as you say the fundamentals for PAF remain good..

Patryk, we might be there sooner than we thought! If we do get back to 120p I would consider buying back half the shares I originally sold but not the full lot, I am happy with my current spread but still heavily into gold miners. I agree with your last 2 posts ..."we are still printing money even at 4k gold price" ..."The sooner this war in Iran ends the better".

LifeOReilly, the quoted information is correct except the interim dividend is approximately 0.547p (12 S African cents or about 0.744 US cents) then less 20% withholding tax. Still not received mine in my HL accounts.

Kat, totally agree that power is around 10% of total operating costs and that includes oil and electricity. Also the USD today compared to 28th Feb is about 1.8% stronger against the Real which would reduce the AISC by about $33/oz (based on the AISC for the first 9 months of 2025 of $1816/oz) other things being equal.

Also the stronger USD against both Real and GBP increases the gold price in Real/GBP other things being equal.

Yes.

RetiredBanker, for 2025 I am expecting revenue of $174 million and net profit $71 million, hopefully we find out in April. For Q1/2026 using your numbers of production 13,000 oz and average gold price $5000/oz I get revenue of $65 million and net profit $31 million based on the Mineral Extraction Tax increasing to 11% since the start of January. That works out at an equivalent PE of 3.3, still crazy cheap as everyone has commented.

Chrome price up $5/tonne this week to $315/tonne, that is the highest price since July 2024.

Viable, good spot about the very heavy seasonal/tropical rain hitting Northern Territory in late Feb/early March which seems to be the worst for decades, even closing the NT's main road, the Stuart Highway for some time. This will have delayed or possibly even at times stopped open cut mining at various sites and the ability to transport ore to the processing plant at Noble, particularly when some of these roads are untarmaced and prone to flash flooding and being damaged or washed out. Hopefully the processing plant has a sufficient stock of ore to process but even this will be affected.

Adverse weather in Australia or S Africa during their summer months is nothing new, any delays at Tennant Creek have not been severe enough to issue an RNS and possibly there is time to catch up on any delayed production, we will probably know more when the next operational report is issued in June/July.

I would tend to agree with oufc and Bustard. We already know that with the continuing civil war in Sudan that PAF has closed their exploration sites there. No doubt that CL would consider investment in other countries outside S Africa and Australia but I can imagine it is not top of his agenda.

The Egoli project is an interesting one with possible production of 72,000 oz gold/year with an initial life of mine of 9 years, we know that some work to pump out water in Evander 7 shaft to the lower levels has been completed and that below ground drilling is underway. But my vague understanding is that the major phased development of Egoli can only start after Evander 8 shaft levels 24,25,26 have been depleted which could be 6 to 8 years+ away and even then it would probably take 20 months for first gold at Egoli and possible another 16 months to gradually ramp up to full production. So that takes us well into the mid-late 2030's and potentially beyond the current permitting for Evander which I think is 20238 . So Tennant/Royal Sheba/Soweto Cluster/Warrengo/Popular at all going to happen first. Happy to be told if I am wrong of this.

....never say never!

It did not help that yesterday Berenberg reduced their target fron 190p to 181p , although they are still reiterating PAF as a buy.

Providing the gold price remains north of $5000/oz for the foreseeable future, the share price will very gradually rerate despite the current world concerns.All gold miners are currently bouncing everwhere but Mr T promises us the war is short lived si hopefully economic rationale will resume.

Good find viable,that initial high AISC of USD 2534/oz is only in the initial 6 months when production is still relatively low but still ramping up to planned maximum production. More importantly it is nearer USD 1300/ oz (at current prices) when expected capacity is reached during 2027. Even if the capacity at the Nobles processing plant is eventually increased from current 840,000 tonnes of ore/ year to 1 million as planned, it is still not going to be enough, further expansion will be required!

Welcome back Patryk!

That would be ironic as the Karo site was originally owned by Zimplats but waa taken off them in 2018 by the Zim government as they had failed to develop the site and given to Tharisa for promised development.

Viable, I think Soweto will realistically be nearer 35,000 oz/year but hopefully 50,000 tops .The commercial case for White Devil is mind blowing so it will most definitely proceed and hopefully first open cast ore taken in June this year .Not certain of your source for AISC of ~ $2100/oz but I assume this is AuD and not USD which would be lower?

Mark, I agree, CL is a sharp cookie with lots of experience and knows the ups and downs and will be adjusting terms in the new climate, we are in good hands .

Have a good weekend all, particularly in the wider world we live in .