Member Info for Mike1959

Sotolo, I agree.

Hi guys,

I calculate the NAV at the end of Sept as USD 323 million, the current share cap is £210.68 m or USD 282 m so the shares are currently trading at about a 12% discount to NAV. If the total cash distribution to shsreholders will be USD 150 m that will be USD 6 m as dividend and around USD 144 m share buyback suggesting TMIP will take out around 45% of current shares and reducing the NAV to around USD 173 m but if they lose say USD 10 m in the current quarter then that NAV eill reduce to around USD 163 m.

Fortunately the business did phenominally well in the first 18 months post covid and with the early stake in Grindrod but the full buyout of Grindrod happened just as the market peaked and then there was a sharp drop which severely damaged the business. Like alot of things in life, timing is everything. At anothrr time the buyout of Grindrod could have been a fantastic success, we all need a slice of luck along the way.

As Henty Strutt says " The Company will retain sufficient cash to support the remaining fleet [of 7] while it considers strategic options during the first half of calendar year 2026".With some good luck ,if the company can change from being loss making and become profitable again then i think there is a small chance that it can survive and within a year or two very slowly start to grow again. But i think more likely, it will remain slightly unprofitabke and continue to payout 2c divi each quarter and so the business will have to be sold to a bigger player or the 7 vessels sold off and the business wound up before the middle of 2026 in which case you would hope to be paid out around the current share price but not anymore. GLA

Bustard- although the decision has been made that PAF will join the ftse 250, this will only happen on 22nd Dec but as you suggest, I am sure the big passive index funds have already started to buy and this will continue for the next 6 months or so.

I reckon PAF will immediately go into the top 20% of ftse 250 companies based on current market capitalisation. Once the full year results are out in Sept 2026 it should go higher!

Viable- I do not know too much about DRD , they seem to be tailings processors only which is low risk and offers some consistency but they produce less gold than PAF and surprisingly they have a higher AISC than PAF , probably because their average gold yield is incredilby lower at 0.178 gram/tonne and actually falling. Also while they have the Crown complex with a 22 year life, some of their other sites will be depleted much sooner so they do not have the growth prospects of PAF.

Pavlar, of the 5 largest gold/ silver miners in London (fres,edv,ggp,hoc,paf) you are correct that over one or months PAF is third in share price increase behind fres and hoc but i think this is because the silver price has increased in percentage terms by more than the gold price, but over 6 months PAF is 1st out of the five and over 12 months 2nd, only behind fres. Also the bigger miners have considerably higher coverage and the PAF expectations are totally behind the curve and based on the gold price of 6 months ago.If PAF hits the expected 6 month production figure of 127,000 oz that will be a 50% increase on the same period last year and this will rerate when the actual interim results are out on 18th Feb 2026.

Bustard, likewise thanks. Using your July 2026 to June 2027 assumptions I get profit after tax at USD 490 million so again we are in the same ballpark.

As you say, hopefully the AISC is diluted lower, also for Australia, I think the corporation tax is slightly higher thsn South Africa and in the Northern Territories ,mining royalties seem to be based on a percentage of operating profit also the payments to Emmerson Resources will start in 2026 but as this is for exploratory /development work I assume this will not be included in the AISC but it is still a cost.

PAF stated their dividend policy in the 2025accounts was ".....a target payout ratio of 40 to 50% of net cash generated from operating activities, after providing for the cash flow impact of capital expenditure" so based on our assumptions and the current share price that should be a 5% dividend yield for the current financial year and around 6% for the July 2026 to June 2027.So a decent dividend plus share price growth.

Hi Bustard, when I said my 2026 profit after tax of "over USD 400 million" my actual number is 414 million so we are even closer!

My guestimated 2027 production is 310,000 to 320,000 oz, or say 13% higher than 2026. Costs will inevitably increase particularly with the current USD ZAR now at 17.0 but the 2027 profit after tax will be substantially higher than 2026 with a big proviso that the gold price does not fall.

On 22nd Dec we will be formally included in the FTSE 250, the 101 to 350 biggest companies by market cap.At the moment we are exactly the same market cap as Hocschild (HOC) which is the 46th largest company in the FTSE 250. If we benchmark against HOC my estimate for their Jan to Dec 2025 Profit after tax is around USD 203 million or less than half what we expect from PAF yet HOC has a current forward PE of around 14.6. The current average Ftse 250 trailing PE is 13.7.So within 12 to 18 months I think PAF could gradually creep up to a forward PE of nearer say 12 and still be below the Ftse 250 average or HOC. So over £2 is possible by the time the 2027 results are out if the gold price plays ball.

Pavlar, welcome to the forum but I hope you mean au (gold) rather than ag (silver)!

Rookiegirl, I recognise the Spandau Ballet lyrics! My wife is going to see Tony Hadley this weekend.

I agree 110 to 118 is possible before Christmas IF the gold price does not fall.

With nearly 6 months of the financial year completed, if we assume a gold price of $4100/oz until the end of June 2026, production at 275k, the bottom end of the range and an inflated AISC of say $1640/oz then I still expect PAT of over $400 million, at say a conservative PE of 10 then that is over 140p by September 2026 when the full year nunbers are published.,let us hope for 120p by the time the interim numbers are our ib Feb 2026, or possibly earlier if we get a production report next week as Tigger suggests. I am hoping for first 6 months gold production of 127,000 oz which would be a massive 50 % up on the same period last year. Likewise, inclusion into the FTSE 250 is already seeing the share price shoot up today even though the sells outweighed the buys.

As always,do not take the gold price for granted! We all have to protect our investment and have different risk and investment strategies. If you sleep better at night having locked in some gains then great.

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Sam,

the Index is doing remarkably well for this time of year, possibly recovering after the Trump disaster at the start of the year.

Good to see that you arespending the kids inheritence!Enjoy, I have never been but would love to go.

Charles/Bustard, I am inbetween the two of you. I can understand that quarterly reporting would cost money and management time although a simple production report afer the interim and full accounts would help and will anyway be done for the internal management accounts.In saying that, we certainly cannot say the share price has suffered this year because of this!

I agree on the dividend and buybacks but we just just have to be patient.Hopefully the interims in Feb confirm we are net cash rich as of this month and PAF has already confirmed the future dividend pay out policy which will see a massive increase the the next final dividend and possibly even an interim dividend. GLA.

Totally agree Tigger. I would prefer nice and steady increases rather rhan overshooting now and then falling dramattically in Feb if the results are as expected.I still think the numbers will be better than expected!

The Karo pgm basket price this week of $2024/oz is the highest since Feb 2023 and fast approaching the $2140/oz used in the original 2022 project justification.

Rookiegirl, I believe so but carry their own risks. Both have one main mine and fast delivoping a second mine. SRB operates in Brazil and the main concern is over its licese but this has been renewed at a late stage. ALTN operates in Kazakhstan but the management have a good track history of delivering on their growth promises al their Minerals Extraction Tax percentage or royalty by another word will increase next year. Based on todays prices PAF roughly has a 2025 forward PE of 7.0 reducing to 6.3 in 2026. While ALTN has a 2025 PE of about 5.0 falling to 4.5 in 2026, while SRB has already publishwd results for the first 9 months of 2025 and with an expected PE of 5.3 for the full year falling to 3.2 in 2026.

Naturally these rely on the gold price staying around current levels and the businesses delivering as promised. Both share prices are more volatile that PAF, rising faster when the gold price increases but falling faster when the gold price falls. Please DYOH.

As you say a brilliant few days for PAF! But for me most but not all of the value seems to be built in until the accounts come out in February (unless the gold price continues to rise).

Bustard, I have heard rhe name but did not know much more about them. Physically located in Mongolia but listed in Toronto.Have a big debt for such a small company. On paper look very cheap but turnover in 2025 is actually down on 2024 so production is falling. Too much risk for me, I think SRB or ALTN have better growth prospects, but good luck with whatever you decide.

Another great day for PAF!

The result without the mining royalty reversal was lower than I had expected but fortunately themining royaltu reversal was higher than expected so overall the result was higher than I had expected.I accept the comment on the final dividend of 1.5c but my expectation was 2.0c given the big spends coming up at Tharisa and Karo.

Good to hear PP say on Karo, $193 mullion had been committed to date between the Tharisa equity investment and the VFEX bond.This leaves $178 m of senior debtfacility, $25 m mezzanins debt then $100 to 120 m to come from an up front gold stream plus a strategic investor.All of this to be completed before March 2026 with FOIM 15 months later and then reaching target production by the end of 2027.Fingers crossed!

....it will eventually..... have a look at the SRB results today and what that did for their share price once the facts are known!

Likewise looking forward to monday. At least we know the EPS is not down at least 20% from last year and so will be better than expected

Patryk/Yaz, I agree with Danger Mouse, the market has looked at the risk profile of possibly investing $160 m over 2 years with production only starting sometime in 2028 when we do not know what the gold price will be doing. But to me it is a no brainer.PAF has a fantastic recent success story with all of the tailings operations so the risk is low.Based on a gold price of only $2800/Payback in 3 yearspost- commissioning using a gold price of $3500/oz the NPV 13.3% the NPV is $130 million ,the capex will be funded internally rather than borrowed giving a real ungeared internal rate of return of 29.4% with an AISC for less than $1200, which is more than 25% lower than the current PAF AISC and the cherry isthat in 18 to 20 years with the taings totally removed you have over 20 acres of prime Soweto Jburg land to sell off.And at the moment this is just a DFS with the final decision in middle of next year. On reflection the market will realise this is an incredibly valuable project within days.

Hi moneyman, I agree that i would have expected to hear by now but thete is rhe rest of today or tomorrow.

Without the case win I expect profit after tax of about $63 million or EPS of about 21.2 c which is down about 24% from last year. But if there has been time to calculate thecase win, if it was say $55 million I think it could add a further $39 million to the profit after tax or add another 13 cents to the basic EPS ( but I do not think it can be inclused in the headline

Waterloo, I reckon degeared by Dec although we might find out until Feb when the full accounts are out but hopefully sooner in a production update.

Tigger, I suppose we are ex divi and the buys are roughly x3 the sells so should revover this afternoon.

Great RNS this morning.

Production at MTR to be expanded by an extra 10,000 oz/ year as quickly as next month.

Definitive feasibility study to be ready by June 2026 and a decision to be made shortly after to process the Soweto Cluster tailings in a new processing plant to be located about 20km away at the MTR plant.Would cost around $160 million and take about 2 years to build and would produce 30,000 to 35,000 oz/year for about 15 years at an AISC of below$1200.