Member Info for Mike1959

Good morning Patryk, I do not have an absolute price target here as the performance is 90%+ down to the gold price with less than 10% down to how the management run the business. So it is very much watch and monitor. It the gold price remained at the current level for the next 2 years then we could certainly be £1.50 to £2 within the next 12 to 18 months and possibly higher. We need some milestonea along the way, the move to the main market later this month will help and we should get the MRE in Australia and news on the PFS for White Devil in the next few months. Once the H1 accounts for July to Dec are out in Feb next year providing the expanded production is there then this will incrimentally move up and give us more confidence for the full year numbers and increasing production for the next few years. At current levels the management will surely announce even more expansion, I would expect production at the Nobles plant to be increased from 840,000 tonnes/year to 1 million by investing under $10m and we should get increased investment at MTR if the Seweto Cluster tailings are tranported there by pipeline.

For me the big elephant in the room is the POG.There are many senarios and not enough space and time to go into them now. Personally i still believe the price could increase significantly while sentiment could quickly change and go the other way but I think this is unlikely. It depends on your personal risk threshold, I will continue to ride the wave and closely follow what is happening, which I enjoy doing anyway, no doubt I will sell a few shares along the way. For me, better to totally sell out a few days after a 25% drop rather then extensively sell out now and watch the gold price continue to risk and gold miners prosper. Even the ride since the start of the year has been a once in a generation opportunitu but the next few years could be the chance of a lifetime. But eventually POG will head down!

Hi Patryk, I am invested here and in about 6 other gold and silver miners but have not sold even one share. I am investing for about 25 years in my SIPP and ISA's with a few months to go before retirement (with a few early years based on final salary) . I have generally been very firm on my investment principles, particularly diversification, putting no more than 10% of my investment into one individual share and trying to spread between different markets/sectors/countries. I have only been investing in gold/silver miners since the start of this year which has massively improved my growth. Despite my investment principles I am now 35 to 40 % invested in mainly gold/silver miners and Jupiter gold and silver accumulation.With a background in the metals business and I happy to take this risk and my future pension has massively benefited. Naturally it is not for everyone. My total portfolio is down 3% today but I am massively up so far this year and strongly believe in the supercycle for gold.

This suits me and I am happy with the risk/ reward.

Investment is highly personal and we all want to sleep at night so just do what you feel happy with. As I have mentioned before I have a stop loss for part of my PAF shares, (which is my biggest share holding and totally breaks my usual rules) at 20% below the share price and reviewed weekly, with a 9 % drop today the share price would need to drop a further 11% before this is triggered and would still show me a lifechanging game.

In many ways i think the gold price has increased way beyond expectations but the current share price is not yet reflecting this current level and is still several weeks behind the current price whixh gives us a somewhat buffer.

As always do what you feel comfortable with. Fortunately on this board we have a good cross selection of people with honest and different valued opinions without the bullying and arguements seen on some orher sites which I beleve gives a sensible overall view. As always it is good to bounce off each other!

Patryk, to answer your question,based of 2026 production at 275 000 oz, the actual gold price for July to today and $4500/oz for the remainder of the year I get Profit After Tax at $494 million, $218 m in H1 and $276 m in H2 ( don't forget as the gold price increases this marginally increases our royalties which increases the AISC ).

Yes, I was expecting £1 today but technically the gold price is seriously overbought so I am not surprised at the drop today and some good points below on higher margin calls and the options date and that the odd reduction is healthy.Overally I am still confident that the supercycle for gold has still got a long way to go but we have to accept the odd fall along the way as the up is never linear.

I still believe the move to the main market will hsppen befote the end of October so we just have to be patient. GLA.

Yes, Dec Comex gold price closed over $4300/oz. I suspect the spot LBMA price will open tomorrow at $42 ** and then trade higher.

So, I agree £1+ expected for tomorrow.

I still agree that even higher prices look on the cards but do not forget Newtons theory of relativity, eventually we will have a downturn but let us enjoy the cycle or even generational supercycle but still be aware of the downside. It would be great if the current price go even higher or remains the same for the remainder of the year but the markets do not generally work that way. We should expect some major turbulence even if the trend is still upwards

Hi Darien, thanks for your reply,the numbers today are certainly much better than I expected and vindicate your comment. But we can gentley remind each other once the 2026 numbers are known. Onwards and upwards.

A good solid report to me.The increase in the net cash has surprised me suggesting capex at both sites has been lower than expected.

Sotolo, I understand your comments but this is only a production report, we will have to wait for the full year accounts in November to get more detailed information.

Hopefully the move to the main market will push it there, hopefully the last week of October.

Darien, I would respecffully suggest your numbers are over-optimistic based on current parameters.

The gold price could be $4100? AISC this year likely to be around $1790/ oz so even with the higher production next year iI woul suggest $1850/oz in 2026.

Production in 2026 will not be 60,000 oz in 2026. SRB has stated it will reach an annualised 60,009 oz sometime in H2 2026 so I am suggesting a 2026 production of 52,000 to 55,009 oz.

I will leave the PAT for all to calculate. I am very happy to discuss in more detail if you wish, I just want to avoid overexpectation in what will already be a fantastic number. GLA.

...and don't forget the corporation tax on your profit number.

You are correct that the AISC guidance for 2026 is $1525 to 1575/oz but this was based on an exchange rate of ZAR 18.50:$, today that exhange rate is 17.30 which will increase the AISC in $.

If the gold price continues to increase then you could still be right!

Are the Q3 production numbers out next week? It was 21st October last year. Anyhow I am expecting slightly less at 11,200 oz and 43,300 oz for the full year so I hope you are right.

Hopad,your forward PE of 2.7 looks highly optimistic to me.Based on July 2025 to June 2026 production of 275,000 oz, the actual gold price of Q1 of $3453/oz and the rest of the year at $4000/oz and cost of production at $1668/oz at current exchange rate I get PAT of $396 million or a forward PE of 6.0.

But i hope you are right!

I reckon the Karo pgm basket on Monday will be $2023.

The Q4 and full year production numbers are now available on Tuesday. GLA.

Retired Banker, I agree that gold sales in H1 were 2.5k less than production so this 2.5k would have gone into stock (admittedly at a conservative value) and so reduced the total costs , so in H2 if the sales exceed production by 2.5k then the 2.5k will come out of stock and so increase the total costs, so the H2 costs will exceed the H1 costs.

Bustard,

Enjoy your trip. Hope you try the coca leaves for the altitude sickness.

I agree that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for reasons eloquently explained by many here.

Our share price is not yet reflecting gold above $3500 and with production expected to grow 43% this year, another 13%+ in 2027 and more thereafter this still has a long way to go IF the gold price does not collapse. I have a few fill and kill share sales at 20% below current levels which would still show a fantastic profit but I will continue to hold, " the trend is my friend". I am amazed that the gold price is here and somewhat cautious but continue to see higher prices before lower prices.

The gold price has moved so quickly that most 2026 broker projections are 3 to 6 months behind the curve.I might consider taking a little profit off the board early next year if the gold price increases further.

Just have to hold our nerve and be patient. As always it would be good to know what you and others think

Good choice Krusty, I am also in Greatland.

Second hand vessel prices have actually started to creep up again. I think TMI will complete all of the announced vessel sales, my guess is that there are still 3 or 4 of the agreed sales still to complete, and then reasses where there are. GLA.

We just need patience!

I am just throwing it in there that we could theoretically hedge to the year end at around 4000/oz but no one is suggesting this based on FOMO, fear on missing out of even higher gold prices based on the current bullish predictions.

I am hoping that the move to the main market will happen later this month which would propel the price above £1. Patience.

Totally agree.

Also what is happening on the promised solar farm, if Chariot cannot afford to do the project at the moment, despite PP's big brother we should drop them and just go with Total or find a totally new partner to work with. With the current Eskom prices , despite the wheeled in electricity,this is costing us and delaying the promised carbon reduction.

...yes thanks Sam.

It is still not too late to invest in a few gold miners!