Member Info for Mike1959

....I assume you mean 56p?

A nice 381,022 uncrossed buy reported just after close of trading.

BPat, I agree that the rhodium and iridium prices this week have helped to offset the lower platinum and palladium prices this week.

In the H1 , PGM's contributed only 26.16% of revenue, but even in Q4 If the PGM basket averages $1850/oz and chrome only $265/tonne, then PGM' s will contribute just under one-third of revenue in this quarter. So in the current quarter , Chrome is still contributing around two-thirds of revenue.

While actual revenue was $280.8 million in H1, I am hoping for about $340 million in H2.

Incidentally the expected mid-range gold production for GGP in 2026 is 285,000 oz, very similar to PAF.

But the new mid-range AISC for GGP is now AUD 2600/oz (this includes ful credits for their copper production) @1.53 = USD 1699/oz compared to maximum USD 1525/oz here.

Yes, some very large afterhours trades.

I am not an expert on Greatland Gold but looking on their chat site the Arrowsmith short did not change yesterday and has been unchanged for a while at 0.53%. Tbe me the reason for the 22% drop is that the company has casually slipped in their 2026 guidance showing production down from this year and the AISC guidance up from Aussie $2100 to 2250/oz to Aussie $2400-2800/oz , taking the mid-range that is an increase of Aussie $425/oz or 20%. They appear to have been lean with the truth until now on expected lower grades and exploration/development capex of Aussie $55 to 60 million which if just for sustained production would add Aussie $201/oz to the AISC.

it just shows that shareholders do not like sudden big bad surprises, much better to give them sensible realistic guidance well in advance . We might see the aftershock of some share turbulence here for a few days but assuming our forward production/AISC numbers are sensible for 2025/2026, which I think they are, then we will see this off.

The projects at TCMG were well developed before PAF bought out the remaining 92% in November last year but I have to say their eye for a good deal and timing was perfection!

Bluebird East in NT is 100% owned by Tennant Minerals which is listed on the Aussie ASX under TMS as an explorer and developer so you never know!

Hi Krusty, thank you so very much for those kind words. After that I feel guilty for leaving but I will continue to follow and add my occasional comment. Good luck and kind regards!

Hi Sam, thanks you for your really kind words.

In this modern world I sincerely promise it is much appreciated..

I will remain in contact to irritate you from time to time! Have a wonderful weekend.. Your friend Mike.

Sam/Krusty, I have been thinking about this further. In the first Quarter review the Q1 fleet cash breakeven is shown on page 7 as $14,711/per ship/per day compared to the average TCE of $11,284/per ship/per day, a difference of $3427/tonne The approaching net cash position could save say $2,000 to $3,000/tonne, improving TCE's will also help but reducing the number of vessels will increase the overhead head office costs per vessel. In Q1 the loss was $11.3 million, I can see this reducing in the current quarter but still remaining a loss but if vessel values continue to fall below the budgeted depreciation then somewhere along the line, possibly at the half-year of full year, another negative adjustment will have to be made which immediately hits the bottom line.

The company can continue to pay the current dividend for several years out of the cash pile but all this will do is reduce the total NAV or share capital that counterbalances as a lower share price. Unfortunately on balance the risk is too big for me and I have sold my remaining shares this afternoon and accepted the loss. I will continue to watch and possibly comment and possibly one day decide to buy-in again. In the meantime GLA!

For the full year to 31 March 2025 the loss of $73.6 m is slighlt better than I suggested in April .

For the quarter ending 30 June 2025 I suggested an NAV of $1.10/share doen from $1.1142/share at the end of March. In line with rhe new company structure it looks like TMI has stopped reporting NAV and is now reporting net profit or loss which is-$11.3 million.Doing a bit of maths the NAV for the quarter seems to be $1.065/share which is a bit lower than my prediction but probably better than Krusty was expecting.

Overall the numbers are generally as expected.

I reckon the share price is currently16% below NAV, given that net cash will soon represent a massive number I this this discount will reduce but it depends on how the cash is used, just paying out to us shareholders is nice but it reduces the overall NAV and so needs to be business generative

....sorry fat figures, the silver price should read$39 not 29.

I would still recommend you check it out as a future investment.

A) I agree at least double and nearer to 3.I would like to have a greater understanding of this, JSE prefers volumes while LSE prefers buys ans sells but then there are all sorts of exceptions and uncrossed transactions and sometimes possibly the system misreading a sell as a buy or vise versa.

b) interesting, short term you might be right but I doubt longer term, I will try to have a look.

c) I think the economic case is almost inevitable IF we do not have a black Swan event and the gold price collapses, but that event would likely be positive for the world.

d) my idea was 1p or 1.35 US cents which is 35% above the meagre 1c you mention. I agree that even 1.35c with the current July gold price looks insignificant but PAF have to be seen to paying the big debt off first. If the gold price increases to $3400/ oz or more by the end of August they may increase the dividend payments to 1.4 to 1.5 US cents. PiC and similar major investors will have a much bigger guidance than us mere private investors ans will know CONSIDERABLY higher dividends will follow in 2026- between- financial prudwnce/patience is required! We all know what is coming if the gold price does not fall, my view is that after a pause it will push ahead again as the fundamentals have not changed.

Bustard-over 40 years and with much heart ache and bad deals I vowed to keep no more than 5% of any individual share or no more than 10% of any individual fund in my total financial pot.After much anguish, in February I increasd PAF to 10% with some other minor gold and don't forget silver at $29/oz.

I must say my investment is much smaller than yours but is equally important as I get closer to retirement next year. My gut tells me I should invest more in PAF but I will try to stick to my investing principles.

GLA

..... i reckon about 1.35 cents/ share dividend for 2025 or exactly 1p at current exchange rate. Nothing special for this year but we have invested heavily and are paying off debt with rhe small share buy- back.

For 2026 we should see a massive hike including a special dividend.

I agree that Tennant Creek could become the most lucrative part of PAF. The historic numbers for the total Tennant Creek Mineral Field (only part of this area is now owned by TCMG/PAF)are amazing , having processed 25 million tonnes at 6.9 grams/tonne gold producing 5.5 million ozs of gold and at 2.8% copper producing 700,000 tonnes. I just hope there is a good chunk of this left for TCMG/PAF to find! But we have to realise that that new findings will be diluted by the continuing exploration JV between TCMG and Emmerson Resources (ERM) where ERM can get a 6% gross production royalty on mines under 250,000 oz and for mines above 250,000 oz they have the option for the two companies to co-develop with ERM paying 40% of the costs but getting 40% of the revenue. If TCMG does not produce 60,000 ozs from the JV tenure then TCMG will have to pay Minimum Production Payments to ERM, 2 months ago ERM said this will result in staged payments of about USD 18 million between April to August 2026 If interested ,it is worth looking at the ERM website, they are proactive on their progress, a report on 3rd July explains a geotechnical drilling programme is underway at the White Devil gold deposit and expected to rate the deposit as above 250,000 oz open cast mine under the JV agreement.

TCMG will be gold only at least for the first 3-4 years. A Prefeasibility study on the Warrengo copper and gold deposit (not to be confused with the nearby Warrengo East deposit owned by a different company) should have been completed in the last quarter but the possible execution strategy is not yet known. Edison has suggested the Warrengo deposit could be fast-tracked to start producing in 2029-2030. in the past, Warrengo has processed 4.95 million tonnes containing 2% copper and 8 grams/tonne gold.

Viable, I do not know DRD Gold so I had a quick look at their Q1/25 production numbers, the recovered gold on the tailings they treat is only 0.2 grams/tonne so they had to process 6 million tonnes to generate 35, 000 oz so their AISC was $1808/oz and All in Costs $2402/tonne. the tailings operations of PAF have a considerably higher gold content per tonne so in 2024 the tailings operations had AISC'S of $1034/oz for Elikhulu and around $900/oz for Barberton and MTR tailings with TCMG estimated at around $1300/oz in the first full year, 2026.

It is worth adding that you and I have been chatting on THS for 4 to 5 years. Even at the current PGM basket price of around $1900/oz, PGM's will only account for around 35% of turnover still less than chrome concentrates. Even with that current basket price of around $1900/oz you have to remember that the payable amount is only around 82 to 83% of this as the platinum/palladium/rhodium/iridium/ruthenium are considerably more complex to refine with higher melting points and take longer to process. This year the net profit at PAF will be around $151 million compared to less than $55 million at THS, although THS has a slightly lower 2025 PE. Obviously it depends on the relative price of gold to PGM's/chrome concentrates and the production levels going forward. For me, both will increase but I think PAF will do better over the next 2 years. I have been wrong before!

Viable, good detective work! We know that TCMG has been speeded up by the purchase of the second hand full carbon in leach processing plant with a nominal nameplate processing capacity of about 840,000 tonnes, the mothballed plant has been dismantled ,transported 500 miles and re-erected by a specialised contract engineering company on time and on budget. Edison tells us the hot commIssioning was completed in April , that the first gold pour was in May and that gold production in May/June was 1846 oz. Initial production would probably start at less than 50% of nameplate capacity and gradually ramped up over 6-12 months. Early teething problems are to be expected with complex and second hand equipment , on 11th June PAF told us " delays encountered with the filter presses....resulted in a slower ramp up in production", it would be good to know where we are with this.

As mentioned by viable the Crown Pillar Stockpile, which is available for immediate processing, has a Probable Mineral Resource of 1.26 million tonnes @1.48 grams/tonne gold with 94% recovery =56,000 oz recovered gold while the total brownfield Probable Mineral Reserve (includes the Crown Pillar Stockpile) is 3.9 million tonnes @3.10g/t, 94 % recovery=365,000 oz. I would have liked a chunk of this to be Proven rather than Probable but we will find out more in the next 12 months. For FY2026 if TCMG processes say only 650,000 tonnes @ say 2.8 g/t x 94% recovery =55,000 oz produced against the target of 50,000 oz. To achieve 2.8g/t, we would probably need to process say 70% Central Pillar Stockpile and 30% other tailings/stockpiles with a higher gold content.

To secure the return of their initial investment, PAF prudently decided to hedge about 75% of TCMG production for 2 years, it would be good to hear if this hedge has already been done , and if so, at what price.

Before being fully-bought out by PAF,, to extend the LOM TCMG had a JV with Emmerson to carry out exploration in a number of agreed areas of the 1700 km2 site( to put this into context it is bigger than Greater London) and receive a 6% gross production royalty on any gold produced from these areas. It would be good to know if this agreement is still in place.

As you see I have a few questions. Overall I am confident that TCMG will hit the target production numbers for the first 2 to 3 years, after that work is required to extend the Probable and Proven Mineral Reserves. We will see the share price rerate as these questions are answered and actual production numbers come out .

Hi LuckyLuciano, well spotted, although here they we only reported at the end of the day as "unknown" trades rather than buys. Good to know.

Viable, this is why it is good for us to chat about these things! Glad that you have revised your view.

Yes, it will be interesting to see what has happened to the short position next week.

Charles, on your point about the buy-back slowdown, I calculate there have been 5 announced buy-backs ( the last RNS was on 10th July done on the previous day) totalling 2,003,735 shares which accounts for about 12% f the total buy-backs (ZAR 200 million or about £8.2 million).But it is work saying that under the buy back terms, Peel Hunt cannot buy back at more than 105% of the average closing price for the last 5 business days, so if the average of the last 5 days is say 47p then Peel Hunt cannot buy at more than 49.35p even when the trading share price is 50p+, so this explains why they have done nothing in the last week or so.

The total buy back (say 16 million shares at the current price) only represents about 0.7% of the 2330 million shares in issue. I reckon it will take very roughly 6 months for Peel Hunt to complete.

This morning palladium over $1300 and platinum just under$1500.

...agreed that Oz is geographical and eventually product diversification.

Yes, crazy market so far this morning. Yesterday and so far this morning the sales have been greater than the buys but we are still up over 6%!. Possibly some big buys on JSE???