Member Info for Mike1959

Yes, this is good news, the CFD is long so it is effectively a theoretical purchase of 100,000 shares that he will have to sell at a future date to close out the CFD . It shows he expects the share price to increase from here. Not sure why he did not just buy 100,000 shares.

Viable, good finds as usual. Promising numbers at the Cu Fe Ltd Gecko and Orlando sites particularly copper which would certainly compliment the eventual processing plant at Warrego. I would rather see reserves rather than resources but they will be working on that. It is worth adding that Cu Fe Ltd owns 55% of Gecko/Orlando in a JV and PAF has bought 15% of Cu Fe Ltd or effectively 8.25% of Gecko/Orlando plus a string of other exploratory projects.

I agree that the Soweto Cluster is a no brainer as it can add 30,000-35,000 oz of production, low AISC low risk, in under 3 years. If the DFS is completed and approved this month then I would expect the project to be fast tracked with construction taking 24 months. The sting in the tail is that the total capex for this will be $160m, say $80m each in FY 2027 and FY 2028 that will increase the 2027 capex from the stated $324m to $384m and that is without any capex for Poplar or new ESG projects.

Very much ditto.

Confidence and momentum with slowy but increasing grow over the next month when we should have confirmation on the ERM offer, the DFS on the Soweto

Cluster and news that production has started at White Devil. The FY 2026 around 16th September will also help, even better if the Iran conflict was to cease.

Mark, since the deal was proposed in March there was an arbitrage between PAF and ERM keeping the prices in tandem. But PAF is over 20 times bigger than ERM so it is very much the PAF share price first and then second the market/arbitrage adjusting the ERM share price, not the other way round. Just to be clear , the 100 m share purchases mentioned by hedgehogg are ERM shares and not PAF shares.

Like you and others I have looked for conspiracy theories but cannot see any. Rather as we have already said, I think it is the market reacting to 2026 production at the bottom end of the range and a surprisingly high 2027 AISC. Also as Hedgehogg has pointed out, the $57m increase in 2027 capex (which does not yet include any capex on the Soweto Cluster or Poplar) is very achievable if the gold price does not fall and the increased production happens but if the gold price was to fall and the increased production not happen then this would hurt the operating cash flow and dent the currently significantly growing net cash position and threaten future dividends. On top of this we have paid $10.3 m, a 10% premium to buy 15% of Cu Fe Ltd for relatively early stage resources which could take 5 years to get up and running. If the gold price plays ball (and increasingly copper too) over the next few years then all is well.

On checking in more detail I am particularly disappointed with the H2 performance at Tennant. Admittedly production started very late in H1 using only the historic Crown Pillar Stockpile containing around 1.3 grams/tonne gold but in H2 this should have increased to over 2g/t as other grades were mixed in but the actual H2 head grade is going to be around 1.5 g/t which is more than 25% down from the expected grade. But this just shows that in mining we should not take these things for granted!

HT, you are right that the PAF share price has fallen from 158p on 6th March to about 114p today, a drop of 28% . But the ERM share price was AuD 0.33 on 6th May and then jumped up 36.4% when the proposed deal was announced.. The proposed deal was to exchange 0 .1493 PAF shares for each ERM share. On ASX ERM has closed today at AuD 0.32 , at exchange rate 1.88 that is equivalent to 17p. The PAF share price is currently 114p x 0.1493 =17p so the two shares are perfectly aligned. Basically the ERM share price has fallen in tandem to the PAF share price.

For those voting a 75% majority is required to approve the deal. It is always possible that they say no thanks. But the ERM directors and the major institutional holders seem to be behind the deal so I would still expect the deal to go through. if the deal did not go through then I expect the ERM share price would drop , probably not by the full 36.4% but probably 5%+, the ASX200 has increased by just 1% since 6th March. The ERM shareholders vote on 15th June and if the acquisition is approved then further court approval is required on 19th June.

Viable, great work finding this, they are obviously buying into the PAF acquisition.

Hi hedgehogg, I totally understand you feel they have gone a little too far with the capex and as I commented I am nervous too. The 2027 capex has increased from $267m to $324 m and 87% ($282 m) is for expansion and a mere 13% ($42 m) for sustaining current production. Only time will tell if it is the right think to do, certainly if gold remains above $4000/oz over the next 5-10 years then it is definitely the right thing to do. IF that $282m expansion capex gives you say 20,000 oz extra production every year for say 10 years then that is an expansion cost of $1410/oz on top of the AISC. The Company has committed to the production expansion as demanded by most shareholders (including me and I believe the majority of shareholders) and now has to spend the money to achieve that.

Unfortunately a big chunk of our production is still from underground mines (although the overall percentage is falling). We have to accept that Barberton is about 140 years old and now operating at about 2400 metres underground with a current AISC probably above $2300/oz and Evander is about 70 years old and now operates at about 2400 metres below surface with a current AISC probably above $2600/oz. As these mines get older that means digger even lower so the AISC generally increases above the inflation rate. At the current gold price these are highly profitable, if the gold price was to fall to say $3000/oz then this could be different. In stark contrast the gold our underground gold mines at Tennants Creek will initially start at about 100 metres underground, the eventual copper gold underground mine at Warrego will probably start at 140-300 metres below ground. As well as big money we have to accept big expansion projects will take time, it is likely to be 3 years + before we see Warrego and Poplar at full production so the Company has to have a forward pipeline of projects.

To answer your question about dividend I am hoping that if the 2026 PAT is say $415m then the diluted EPS after the EMR acquisition should be about 19.5 c and the total dividend (an interim dividend has already been paid) say 6 to 6.5 cents, based on the current share price of 114p this would represent a dividend yield of 3.9 to 4.3% which beats the average FTSE 100 dividend yield of about 3.2%. Based on my 2027 numbers the dividend would be 12-15% higher.

As you say, a higher gold price would certainly help!

Mark, we are in agreement. We cannot blame the gold price for most of the significant drop yesterday, as you say it seems to be due to the disappointment of 2026 production being at the bottom end of guidance, although only slightly from my personal expectation but also a significant increase in likely costs in 2027, to make matters worse the operational report is using a USD/ZAR exchange rate of 17.00 while today it is 16.21 which would increase that AISC even further. Also the acquisition of ERM will slightly dilute the EPS in the short term (with gains in the longer term) if completed before the end of June, this financial year, as planned.

Glad to hear we are still in the same ballpark on the 2026/2027 numbers. Yesterday the share price was the lowest this year and I reckon 2026 PAT of $415m, even taking into account the increase in shares to about 2131 million after the ERM acquisition, would put us on a 2026 PE of 8.2 when a few months ago we were around 10. Likewise my expected 2027 forward PE Is around 7.3.

Likewise the aggressive share price ride over the last 18-24 months has shattered and the momentum feel is now totally different. As usual it is 90%+ down to the gold price, if the Iran war ends soon then we should see a good bounce.

Hedgehogg, as you can see from the explanation of AISC from Bustard , the AISC includes sustaining capex to maintain existing production but does not include capex to expand production, most of the capex is to increase production and so will not be included in the AISC, at the moment the AISC accounts for about 93% of the Cost Of Production. I agree with you that the level of increase in capex makes us somewhat nervous but as you point out, "these guys are great miners" and each project will have gone through a rigorous cost-benefit approval process. Unfortunately a big chunk of the AISC increase is due to the weakening USD against ZAR which is totally outside the company's control and is the same for other S African miners. Similarly the level of royalties is outside the company's control (the percentage of royalties in Australia seems to be higher than in S Africa) while the staff/workforce bonuses are largely down to the high gold price and increasing profits. At least PAF has been honest enough to flag up to us the big inflationary AISC increases such as electricity, cyanide and oil and has acted to make sure supplies are maintained.

The PAF dividend policy has not changed and was spelt out in the last accounts and will pay-out 40 to 50% of discretionary cash flows(after allowing for contractual debt repayments and other one-off items) so as shareholders we will certainly see a significant increase in total dividend this year, and with the announced capex over many years as you want to see, subject to the gold price not falling.

Mark, I have bought 3289 shares at 121.58p, HL would not allow me to buy anymore.

MIDODX, yes, record production but the market was expecting even more 275,000 oz so this explains the share drop, if the production had been say 283,500 oz (middle of the 275,000-292,000) guidance range) then revenue would have been about $40 m higher.

Mark/bangrak, using a gold price for H2 of $4709/oz (the actual numbers for Jan to May and assuming $4500 for June), an ISAC of $1880/oz and production/sales of 146,704 oz plus the actual H1 numbers , for the full year I get a PAT of $415 m. For 2027 using production/sales 291,000 oz (middle of the 280,000 to 302,000 guidance range , AISC of $2175/oz and average gold price of $4500/oz I get a PAT of $464 m which represents a increase in PAT of 14% even though production has increased by only 6%, the AISC has increased by 16% and a lower assumed gold price. So for me that is a good result! Always assuming the gold price holds up!.

MIDODX, yes, record production but the market was expecting even more 275,000 oz so this explains the share drop, if the production had been say 283,500 oz (middle of the 275,000-292,000) guidance range) then revenue would have been about $40 m higher.

Mark/bangrak, using a gold price for H2 of $4709/oz (the actual numbers for Jan to May and assuming $4500 for June), an ISAC of $1880/oz and production/sales of 146,704 oz plus the actual H1 numbers , for the full year I get a PAT of $415 m. For 2027 using production/sales 291,000 oz (middle of the 280,000 to 302,000 guidance range , AISC of $2175/oz and average gold price of $4500/oz I get a PAT of $464 m which represents a increase in PAT of 14% even though production has increased by only 6%, the AISC has increased by 16% and a lower assumed gold price. So for me that is a good result! Always assuming the gold price holds up!.

.....sorry, the last line should read half of the drop.

Guys, it seems a massive overreaction to me. Admittedly the guidance production for this year was 275,000 to 292,000 oz and now the company is suggesting near the bottom of 275,000 oz which to me is not unreasonable given the H1 numbers, my expectation for the full year before this release was 278,000 oz. The net profit for this year will still be around $400 m an there is so much other good news in the release.

viable had mentioned the Strategic Copper/Gold and critical minerals Alliance with Cu Fe Ltd and Tennant Minerals Ltd but it looks like PAF have gone with a $10.3m direct investment in explorer, Cu Fe Ltd, equivalent to about 11% of their market cap.

The AISC guidance is now $1870/oz based on exchange of 17.00, I think the exchange rate will be nearer 16.91 making the AISC about $1880/oz which is slightly better than I had expected. Mark, the 2027 indication is not unexpected given the exchange rate, and expected royalty/bonus payments.

The projected end of year net cashof $220 m is better than the $200 m I was expecting.

The 2027 guidance production of 280-302k is totally in line with previous guidance. Mark/bangrak, I have a look at what that means for the 2027 numbers and report back later.

As others have said , the operational news is fantastic and we knew that Tennants Creek has been slowed down due to heavy rain earlier in the year. On reflection I expect this to recover at least have of the drop we have seen today.

The Bluebird copper/ gold discovery is about 40 km from Tennants Creek but is owned by Tennant Minerals (ASX:TMS) which is a totally different company to us (Tennant Creek Mining Group or

TCMG).

To confuse even further, while we own the Warrego copper gold project, the nearby exploration Warrego East copper gold project is owned by another company, Metals Australia Ltd ( ASX:MLS).

An eventual possability is for the 3 companies to potentially work together.

Viable, thanks for spotting this. I have learned from this article that Warrengo will be an underground mine and will have to have its own plant for processing both gold and copper which I think would take about 3 years from the go ahead to start producing so for me it looks like late 2029 at the earliest before they start producing and late 2030 (that is the 2031 financial year)before we hit full production and reach the magical 100,000 oz total gold production in Australia. Glad to hear if anyone is more optimistic. Still going the right direction!

Enjoy the sunshine and long weekend all!

ConMan94, even though actual Q1 sales were limited to 11,532 oz due to this geological fault which is now behind us, with the Q1/2026 gold price averaging $4878/oz I reckon we havw been net cash since early April.

Thanks oufc, I had not seen that which seems a surprising response from Eskom. Not sure where this puts the green credentials to cut carbon emissions at the Tharisa site by 30% by 2030.

Raxfactor, the main reason that the cost basis only increasing by 4% was that pgm sales were 1500 oz less than production and chrome sales were 38,700 tonnes less than production which reduced the "change in inventories-finished products" cost which effectively reduced the Cost of Sales. We cannot have it both ways, if sales has equalled production then revenue would have been higher and COS would have been higher. I would expect this to swing the other way in the H2 numbers.

I would suggest the reduction in speciality chrome production was due to the lower mine volume (weather related) which resulted in increased but lower quality of bought-in ROM rather than redirecting to battery feedstock, we are nowhere near this required volume at the moment. The Agency revenue was noticeably lower as a result.

I agree that the news generally derisks the business particularly when PP says agreement has been reached with the Zim government on the substantive fiscal arrangements and that at the moment these are being finalised through the respective ministries, we just have to wait on news for the $300 m financing. Interesting that MetQ, the manufacturing business has been sold, for its relative small size this was a distraction to management and allows them to concentrate on bigger parts of the business. The share in Karo Mining has increased to 78.81% for the same share price as last year with Leto/Medway not subscribing for any additional shares. Still no news on the promised solar PV farm at the Tharisa mine.

Overall a strong set of numbers and information to move the business forward.

Hi Mark, I can tell you are annoyed as it is not like you! In this transaction our CEO is merely acting in his best interests, in May 2024 he was given a loan for ZAR 11.34 m (£506,000 at current exchange rate) and the option to buy 3.007 m PAF shares at the equivalent of 17p maturing this month. So this month he has to repay the loan for ZAR 11.34m and so has now sold 2.609 m share (87% of the original option) ZAR 33.03 or £1.47/share giving him £3.3m NET ( after paying off the ZAR 11.34 m) gain .We would all do the same in that situation and he has very gradually been selling his share holding for more than 12 months. His basic salary is USD 407,000 admittedly with bonuses and incentives such as this on top, according to AI the basic annual salary for a FTSE 250 CEO, admittedly UK rather than S African centric, is typically GBP 450,000 to GBP 750,000 (about USD 600,000 to USD 1 m). So it is difficult to argue he is overpaid at a basic level and the share price growth over the last decade shows the growth he has given to the business, after all he has been CEO for 11 over 11 years and long may he reign!

But as you add, all gold miners are down recently. I totally agree that we are still printing money at a gold price of $4,500/oz (or $4481/oz as I write this). What we need is the end to the Iran conflict and then the conventional wisdom will hopefully resume!