Member Info for Mike1959

Hi RetiredBanker, rightly or wrongly the market places significant discounts on gold miners for ownership , jurisdictional/geopolitical and operational risk.

1. Ownership risk-although ALTN is registered on the LSE, about 66% of Altyn Gold is owned by AGold Mining Group, a private holding company owned by the Assaubayev family, a Kazakh family officially residing in Monaco. So with only a 34% free float, the Assaubayev family has effective control of the company. This opaque structure is reflected in ALTN not being particularly responsive to shareholder information, for example the recent 2025 accounts have not even had a RHS which is unusual and we are still waiting for the Jan-March 2026 production numbers while most other miners that report (admittedly not all do) seem to publish within 30 days or so. Incidentally I think the family and not ALTN own QazMoly, the potential Drozhilov tungsten project in Kazakhstan.

2.Jurisdictional/geopolitical risk-located in Kazakhstan the company has to sell to the state gold refiner, this year we have seen a big increase in the mineral extraction tax. As others have recently commented, the proximity to Russia currently brings further complications.

3.Operational risk- the company has only been mining underground for 8 years and currently operates from just one site in one country so all of our eggs are in one basket. A major natural disaster or accident could seriously affect production. This would ease if/when Teren-Sai is operational. The potential production at Teren-Sai would represent an expansion/investment risk if the capex was spent and the gold price then collapses for years(admittedly highly unlikely).

From 2021 to 2025 the trailing PE of ALTN has averaged 3.7 and is currently about 7 with a forward PE under 5 so this is gradually rerating but will take time as MarginMiner has expressed. For what it is worth, I believe ALTN is an exceptionally well run business (although information to shareholders could be improved) and that is why I am invested here and believe the share price will gradually rerate in time particularly if the gold price holds.

Hi RetiredBanker, rightly or wrongly the market places significant discounts on gold miners for ownership , jurisdictional/geopolitical and operational risk.

1. Ownership risk-although ALTN is registered on the LSE, about 66% of Altyn Gold is owned by AGold Mining Group, a private holding company owned by the Assaubayev family, a Kazakh family officially residing in Monaco. So with only a 34% free float, the Assaubayev family has effective control of the company. This opaque structure is reflected in ALTN not being particularly responsive to shareholder information, for example the recent 2025 accounts have not even had a RHS which is unusual and we are still waiting for the Jan-March 2026 production numbers while most other miners that report (admittedly not all do) seem to publish within 30 days or so. Incidentally I think the family and not ALTN own QazMoly, the potential Drozhilov tungsten project in Kazakhstan.

2.Jurisdictional/geopolitical risk-located in Kazakhstan the company has to sell to the state gold refiner, this year we have seen a big increase in the mineral extraction tax. As others have recently commented, the proximity to Russia currently brings further complications.

3.Operational risk- the company has only been mining underground for 8 years and currently operates from just one site in one country so all of our eggs are in one basket. A major natural disaster or accident could seriously affect production. This would ease if/when Teren-Sai is operational. The potential production at Teren-Sai would represent an expansion/investment risk if the capex was spent and the gold price then collapses for years(admittedly highly unlikely).

From 2021 to 2025 the trailing PE of ALTN has averaged 3.7 and is currently about 7 with a forward PE under 5 so this is gradually rerating but will take time as MarginMiner has expressed. For what it is worth, I believe ALTN is an exceptionally well run business (although information to shareholders could be improved) and that is why I am invested here and believe the share price will gradually rerate in time particularly if the gold price holds.

Likewise I agree providing interest rates do not start to increase.

Viable, I suppose the obvious question is what information have you received to encourage you to buy more? I have a few shares in RMR which appear to be worth the relatively high risk.

Likewise I agree providing interest rates do not start to increase.

Viable, I suppose the obvious question is what information have you received to encourage you to buy more? I have a few shares in RMR which appear to be worth the relatively high risk.

Pharmhall, Just realised your cash numbers are from the last production report in April and are gross (do not allow for net debt) . But the net cash number of $54.7 m at the end of March 2026 is actually down from the $68.6m at the end of September 2025.

Pharmhall, not sure where your cash position figures are from as they are not in the RNS? Despite the excellent result I would still expect the net cash figure to be down from the end of September 2025 reflecting the higher depreciation cost for capex last year and increased capex this year at Karo and the start of underground construction at the Tharisa mine.

The mid indicated basic EPS of 15.5c implies a H1/2026 PAT of about $49 m so on that basis the annualised forward PE is about 5.6.But I expect H2 to be even better (higher chrome prices more than making up for lower PGM prices plus higher production) so my expected full year PAT of $119 m is a forward PE of about 4.5.

Pharmhall, while excellent the results are still below some expectations (including me) and so I would suggest this is why the share price is not up even more today, as you say, we will have to wait for the full results next Thursday to see why (possibly the pgm fair value gain is lower than I expected and the actual sales lower than actual production and possibly some reserves?).

Excellent interim results although my estimate was way off!

I would suggest at interim dividend of 2.0 or like you, probably 2.5c based on a total dividend of 6.0c (based on full year PAT of $119m).

PAF gets a mention by The Twelfth Magpie ( formerly The Motley Fool) today .

RetiredBanker,I agree with your revenue and PAT numbers and that Altyn has probably been net debt-free since March/April.

But a forward PE of 4.5 to 5 sounds about right to me a the moment taking into account all factors.

Raxfactor, excellent summary and the potential is massive but I expect it will be at least 2 to 3 years before Redox One is contributing revenue rather than absorbing development costs. It makes perfect sense for the Tharisa mine itself to be the first major customer but before this could start it would be good to know if construction of the delayed 40 MWp solar PV plant has already started and if not then why not and when will it start.

Fortunately THS can afford to continue financing Redox One. We should know indicated H1/2026 EPS in a SENS/RNS late next week/early the following week with the actual results out on 21st May. I am expecting H1/2026 EPS to be 26 to 27 cents, 26 cents would represent a 940% increase on H1/2025. The basic EPS for the full year 2025 was 26.7 cents and this included a $67 m mining royalty reversal. The market does not appear to be anticipating these numbers, then again I could be wrong!

Viable, yes, if everything goes to plan,24th June is the Record Date which I assume is the date the Enlarged group (Emmerson Resources included in Pan African Resources). So I assume the ER performance will be included in the PAF Financial Year ending 30th June 2026. Fortunately both PAF and ER have the same financial year which reduces the complexities. We already know that ER had a loss in July to Dec 2025 of AuD 1.4m or around USD 1.0 m, with the payments from PAF to ER of around USD 9m in H2 I very roughly expect ER would make a small profit after tax for the full year of say USD 3m.I reckon the 2026 FY EPS for the enlarged group will be about 1 cent lower (say roughly 20 cents down from 21 cents before) than if the buyout had not happened, as CL has already explained, this was not the cheapest PAF investment but the rewards will be long term.

As you say, the Definitive Feasibility Study on the Soweto Cluster should be completed by the end of June , the pre-feasibility study at Popular will presumably take longer although at the current gold prices both projects are no brainers to proceed. Also production at While Devil should start in June.

The gold price is up 3.1% this week so PAF has done well to have increased by 8.2%.All bodes well for the full year results in September.

Bangrak, based on gold at $4600 and production/sales of 56,000 oz I am expecting 2026 PAT of $99 m or a forward PE of 4.1 so I would agree with your fair value of 1450 which is a forward PE of around 5.3. I agree with your other observations.

The 2025 numbers today are excellent although lower than the $70 m I had suggested, the Cost of Sales was higher with the AISC increasing to $1562/oz, up $244/oz on last year despite the significantly higher volume. On closer inspection the KZT is up about 10% against USD over the last 12 months which accounts for about 50% of the higher AISC and the higher gold price has increased the minerals extraction tax which accounts for about 33% of the higher AISC so I can understand the increase.

Yes, hopefully 2025 FY results this coming week. I am expecting revenue of $174 million and net profit $70 million.

...Warrengo would be on top of this and now looks like it will have its own dedicated separate plant to produce 20,000-30,000 oz gold and around 13,000 tonnes copper in concentrate form but this is only likely to be operational in 2030-2031.

So for me, estimated gold production will be 2027 295,000 oz, 2028 350,000 oz, 2029 360,000 oz , 2030 370,000 oz, 2031 380,000 oz.

Viable, 400k ozs/year gold production in the next 5 years sounds too optimistic to me but I can understand the excitement. Given recent technological explorative improvements and that only 8% of previous drills have been below 150 metres depth there is great potential for increasing tonnes mined around Tennants Creek. But as I have mentioned before the bottleneck for the next 4 or 5 years will be treatment capacity rather than mining capacity. The Nobles Nob processing plant has a current processing capacity for 840,000 tonnes ore/year and this will be increased to 1 million tonnes/year. But processing 588,000 tonnes of ore/year from White Devil at 3.6 grams/tonne gold and 412,000 tonnes of ore/year combined from the other sites (Crown Pillar stockpile, Golden Forty,Chariot, El Dorado, Juno, Weabers Find, Black Snake etc) averaging 3.1 g/t gold will produce around 102,000 oz gold/year assuming 94% recovery. So 102,000 oz/year will be the maximum production unless the processing plant can be increased further which could take several years. wARRENGO

Viable, thanks for the additional information. We just have to wait for the financing, agreement with the Zim government and then production to start while prices stabilise or increase.

Viable, I thought the Q2 production results were satisfactory with pgm production slightly underperforming and chrome compensating by slightly over-performing. I still think we are on target for H1 FY 2026 results out on 21st May to be over EPS 27 cents which would be higher than the WHOLE of last year (which included the one -off tax gain). I expect the H1 pgm fair value adjustment to be over $20 million which people seem to be including. I suppose Implats could make a suitable equity partner in Karo although it is ironic that the Zim government took the project off Zimplats/Implats and passed it on to Tharisa/Leto.

The devil will be in the detail. The total cost of the platinum project is now $545 million (although production of 226,000 oz per year is now up on the original number). We know that Tharisa has put in equity of about $193 million to date which includes the VFEX bond. As stated in your review, this leaves about $300 million in outstanding investment ( of which $178 million is expected to be senior export debt, $25 million mezzanine debt and about $100 million strategic equity investor and/or up front gold stream payments). If Implats were to put in say $100 million I very roughly calculate they would get around 15% of Karo Mining Holdings PLC (roughly split 15% Impala/68% Tharisa/17% Leto) which in turn owns 85% of Karo Platinum (the Zim government owning the remaining 15% as a free carry) so it all gets even more complicated.

First ore in mill is still showing as late calendar year 2027 with 15 months from financing to first ore in mill. So we can expect the financing package to be announced very latest September this year, hopefully sooner as EPSA, our open-pit contractor has already started. This still very much depends on Tharisa and the Zim government reaching a satisfactory conclusion to the terms of the Special Enterprise Zone.

Viable, I assume this was meant for the RMR site rather than PAF?

MarginMiner, I agree with your numbers. For Q1/26 I am expecting production of 14,000 oz @$4876 gives a revenue of about $68.3 m, even allowing for the increased Mineral Extraction Tax and higher diesel in March (if they do not forward buy, also the stronger USD could possibly even slightly reduce the AISC) A profit after tax of $33.8 m or EPS 124 cents which on an annualised basis works out at PE 3.5.

I think your fair value of PE 6 to 7 for the time being but certainly agree it should be 4 to 5 with further upgrade if the expansion plan goes ahead.