Member Info for Mike1959

Tigger, apologies that I had misinterpreted your comment.

Mark/Viable, I stick to what I suggested in February that if the average 2026 gold price was say $5,500 then we could see a share price of 250p by Feb 2027, but to reach £3 I think the gold price would have to average nearer $6,000.In saying that we could see £3 in 2028. I still do not think people are taking into account the scale of cash that PAF is currently generating, although net debt was $46 million at the end of H1/26 I expect we will be around$300 million net cash at the end of H2 and that total dividends will be 7.5 to 8.5 cents for FY26 and 12 to 13 cents for FY27.For me the path to £5/share will be incremental steps over the next 3-5 years.

The problem with strategic acquisitions at the moment is that you are paying top dollar in a $5,000/oz gold environment when we do not know where the gold price will be 5 years down the line. Buying out ER was slightly different in that we were already deeply involved with them and know what we are getting. We are effectively paying US$217 million to buy up ER when we paid just US$ 54.2 million to buy the considerably larger Tennant Consolidated Mining Group in 2024, who would have expected a gold price of $5000+ in November 2024. I think our CEO is nervous of large deals in the current environment and will go for tried and tested organic production growth like Popular and Warrego with smaller external add-ons adjacent to some of our sites in Australia.

Most gold shares were down 2 to 5% today but we were up today probably because of the announcement, but our sells of 5.3 million shares still outweighed the buys of 3.0 million so I still expect the share price to be under pressure this week.

Tigger, you sound underwhelmed but you have to take account of the terms of the JV and why we have bought this out. White Devil has been classified as a major JV asset where ER was responsible for paying 40% of the running and developments costs but got 40% of the gold. At say a production rate of 600,000 tonnes of ore/year with an initial life of mine of 7 years the mine would produce around 65,300 oz of gold /year of which ER would get 40% or 26,100 oz/year or 182,700 oz over 7 years. So effectively PAF is buying the right to this 182,700 oz gold back from ER .Over 70% of the production will be open cut mining with a below average AISC , let us say, USD 1500/oz, at an assumed gold price of say USD 5000 this gives an operating cash flow of USD 639.45 million over 7 years. It is hoped that initial production will start in June this year and then take 6 months to ramp up so it will certainly contribute to extra production in FY2027.For the small mines JV, ER would have been given a 6% gross production royalty on the gold produced with minimum guaranteed payments which would also work out as a massive number.

By buying out ER in shares , PAF is saving these future massive future costs but taking the risk and this greatly simplifies the day to day operations. For ER shareholders it gives them a massive 36% premium to the last share price and they buy into an incredibly successful international business. ER had issued several share placings to finance the exploration and in the initial stages would have struggled to raise the finance to pay for their 40% costs at White Devil, also they were reliant on PAF to prioritise the ore through the 840,000 tonnes/year processing plant at Nobles, if PAF had decided to process ore from the smaller mines first this would have delayed their earnings out of White Devil. The issue of new shares in PAF only dilutes our existing shares by 4.2% so I also see this deal financially accretive for existing PAF shareholders. Overall this is a big win win for both PAF and ER and their shareholders and another highly successful deal by our management team.

BeardedDragon, I agree that the share price is under pressure like most other shares but if the gold price remains above $5000 then this is a relatively temporary blip and the share will eventually recover as the business inevitably will make record profits. As before, it is all about what the gold price is doing and whatever your moral/political views are, the events in the Middle East are just a short term distraction. At the moment the gold price is $5094/oz, down a little from what I had hoped for but still maintaining $5000 or more.

Now Monday in Australia, and just announced on the Australian Stock Exchange that PAF has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed to buy 100% of the share capital in Emmerson Resources, our JV partner, for around AuD 311 million or about USD 217 million. This will be paid in PAF shares (with Emmerson Resources shareholders getting a 36.4% premium to the closing share price on Friday 6th March and should be completed by July 2026.On completion, ER shareholders will own about 4.24% of PAF.

While we have paid a significant premium to the last ER share price, PAF/Tennant was committed to paying ER about USD 14.5 million between April to August this year as past royalties for the JV which we are now paying effectively to ourselves. But now it will get rid of the JV complication and seriously simplify the Tennant business which has already committed to serious expansion over the next 3- 4 years. Also ER did have a few other interests outside of the JV with PAF, such as the Hermitage and Edna Beryl mines and an exploration Strategic Copper and Gold Alliance with Tennant Minerals Ltd (a different company to out TCMG) and CuFe Ltd plus very early stage exploration projects in New South Wales looking for large copper-gold porphyry deposits. We should get an RNS/SENS on this tomorrow.

Accomp, totally agree it was a long week! It might have felt like it, but the gold price was not down last week, the average LBMA gold price for the 5 days 2nd to 6th March was $ 5216.65/oz compared to $5167.08/oz the week before (and $4913.19/oz since the start of January so the trend is still upwards. Also it is worth remembering the USD was stronger last week against both GBP and ZAR which increases the gold price in GBP and slightly reduces the AISC in USD.

Cracksniper, gold was last traded on Friday at $5172 , so I am hoping for an opening in Asia in the next few hours of between $5150-5200 which bodes well for next week.

I agree on the earnings for the FY2026, and I expect the earnings to be over 200% higher than the year before.

Patryk, that is a big number so I can totally understand. Really pleased that it has worked out for you, best of luck spending your wonderful gains.

It has been a pleasure to work with you.

Moneyman, yes, the chrome price is up $5/tonne this week to $305/tonne , the highest price so far this year while the Tharisa basket price of $3195/oz is the second highest weekly price this year, so what is there not to like.

Surely this will significantly increase if the Karo financing deal was to be announced? The Karo basket price is $2778/oz this week ,say $2335/oz payable about 84%) while the Tamesis report suggests the pgm AISC is now down to $800/oz (probably due to the increased base metal production/content and higher copper/nickel prices) a differential of $1535/oz, most gold miners would have dreamed of this number just 12 months ago (although it is always worth remembering that THS does not own all of Karo Mining Holdings).

Waterloo,

Likewise, best of luck to you and I hooe you enjoy the rewards of your investment!

I will hold on for the next week or so and see what happens. Today locks in another day with the gold price above $5000 and at this level PAF is making $1.5 million profit after tax every 24 hours.

But it is is risk off at the moment and we all have to do what we believe is right for us.

Fr Jack, fair enough if he is shortly retiring.

Tamesis have issued a new report after visiting bith Tharisa and Karo in Feb . They say that Karo is " now full spead ahead" and that" goverment sigb-off remains the final step to facilitate financial closure fir funding".

Guys, I agree with the general concensus that it sounds counterintuitive that gold is supposed to be the ultimate defensive asset but has fallen since the events in the Middle East and the initial increase on Monday. But the defensive flight seems to have gone into the USD rather than treasuries or gold .I suppose the world is nervous what higher energy prices and probably slower growth will do for the world economy which probably suggests less money to invest in the future including in gold particularly in the Middle East itself. As usual with these Black Swan events , the baby is thrown out with the bath water and all assets are initially somewhat downgraded. Although the gold price is down from Monday morning, the first trading day after the events, the price is still trading around the same levels as last week and still above the average price so far this year. The bigger picture for gold has been dented but is still intact and will just take a bit of time to recover the previous momentum.

On the subject of stop-losses, I have learnt the hard way and stopped using them for my gold miners but will continue to use them for downward protection on my other shares. It just means you have to balance your personal risk-reward outlook and check the prices and trends that little bIt more.

GLA.

Tigger, well spotted on the latest Edison report. Yes, their terminal valuation increases to nearly £10/share assuming the gold price of $5221 continues to FY2031 and then assuming a growth in cash flow per share of 4.1% after that , this seems a high rate to me but they say this is the average real return in the gold price between 1967-2025, which vindicates what cracksniper has recently said..

For 2026 Edison suggests an EPS on 24.77 c if $5221 continues to the end of June (the EPS looks a bit high to me as I think they are understating the other expenses and AISC) which infers a share price of 237p if the PE rerated to 12.9, the average of the listed peers.

On production, Edison has reduced their FY2027 estimate by 10.6% to 291,600 oz but have increased their 2028 estimate to 347,300 oz due to stated growth plans which sounds optimistic to me but hope we achieve it. The growth includes a feasibility study at BTR to increase the flotation system which would increase production by 7,500 oz over the next 3 years.

Surprised to read that Edison and PAF are going their own way after working together for 15 years.

Fr Jack, thanks for that, I have just checked and you are correct that the 10% is now only when gold is above $5000/oz , we are already there and probably much higher tomorrow. My understanding is that the pgm royalty is still 5%.

Raxfactor, yes fingers crossed. I think the 30% ZIG requirement also applies to bigger gold miners and in addition they have to pay part of their royalties in physical refined gold and part in foreign currency. Also the Zim government has recently announced that the royalty on gold is doubled to 10% when the gold price is greater than $2501/oz.

moneyman, talking about the SEZ in December Phoevos said "There are a few outstanding matters that need to go through various government approval processes , but we 're confident.....we are hoping by the end of the end of the calendar year, but failing [that]....early in the new year, we'll be able to come out officially with the position and the provisions" and that the remaining financing for Karo would be announced shortly after. So let us hope that page 21 of the presentation of 5th Feb is effectively the official confirmation that everything is now formally sorted and agreed so that the Karo financing can be announced very shortly with the first ore in mill 15 months later.

Hi raxfactor , I like your passionate response and probably a lot of people if not most might agree with you but I still respectfully disagree and believe we will take the pragmatic view and seek to finish the deal .

In the long run we will eventually find out who is right but this shows that it is good to canvas different views and opinions.

Have a great week end.

Moneyman, when I had first read the 5th Feb presentaation that you mention I had assumed that THS were saying from there side they were saying the SEZ agreement was still in place although there were still doubts, but having reread it then it does infer both parties now agree to this but I have not seen this confirmed anywhere. Hope you interpretation is correct. I totally agree with you about trying to move the goalposts, in the long run it just puts off investment from outside of the country but Zimbabwe is desperate to exploit its mineral wealth given their immense economic problems. Even then THS is not perfectly innocent, in the original 2018 as well as building the mine and concentrator THS had promised to build smelters and refinery along with a coal mine by 2023 with a 1.4 million oz capacity., so certainly THS had backtracked and delayed when the pgm basket price had collapsed.

Raxfactor, THS has simply invested just too much in effort, time and money to just walk away now and must work with the Zim authorities to make this work which is still in the interest of both parties, or in fact all 3 parties if you include Medway (the Pouroulis family interests). As I have said both sides have ducked and dived. For me it is important that THS does not invest more than has already been agreed and that the rest of the necessary finance is found externally as promised.

....ha ha, boasting rights for the next week!

cracksniper, Talisker currently down 3.19% today.

....beat me to it Waterloo! EDV up 2.32%

Patryk, not all miners are down today. AUP up 3.13%, GGP up 3.90%, ALTN up 1.89%.

......Tigger was right, we have failed to recover to 180p although a string of late Friday sells and a massive 8.1 million net UT sell has not helped, fortunately still 0.11% up on the day and 6.67% up on the week.