Member Info for Mike1959

Patryk,please advise how do you calculate we should be at least 15% up with gold at $3500?

A rather underwhelming day given that we touched $3500 but ii suppose most of this was offset by the weaker USD.

Hi Sam, as you point out these are incredibly difficult times and the weak USD is not helping. Vessel values are still creeping upwards and the recent Pacific Basin results were good. You already know my expectation for Friday so I sincerely hope that I have been overly negative. GLA.

The RNS today is an independent and very thorough and impressive document and will take a few days to digest the 335 pages.

The pre-production capex has now been increased to USD 475 million (broken down to historical capex before 30 Sept 2024 of USD 137 million and remaining capex of USD 338 million. The monthly ROM production has been increased to 220,000 tonnes and the LOM to 11 years. Bloomberg price forecasts are used with a long term Karo 6E PGM basket price of USD 1203/oz. A market approach calculation gives a value range of USD 68 to 115 million and a Cash Flow approach a valuation of USD 39 to 68 million.

I must give credit to the Company for sharing this information with us which will form the basis for much detailed discussion.

Mulder, I calculate the 2026 PE just under 3 based on your numbers but a really long way to go yet and lots can happen.

For the time being I am more interested in the current financial year and with roughly 2.5 months to go I am expecting a PE of 8.2.

I agree a crazy sell off today, gold still around $3312, perhaps some profit taking after a big rise this week and a long weekend ahead.

Patryk, totally agree!

What profit do you expect for the full year if the current price continues to the end of June?

Don't forget that for March to June 2025 PAF has zero cost collar options in place for 12,577 oz/ month guaranteeing the price cannot go below $2102/oz but cannot go above $3093/oz (see p.10 gold price hedging in the last interim accounts).

During March this cap price did not come into play as the gold price was below $3097/oz.But in April with the gold price fortunately above $3097 we will only get $3097 for around 60% of our sales and then the higher spot rate for the balance.

...now trading above $3200.

moneyman, i agree with your comments. the speciality chrome grades were also well down in q2.

my back of a *** packet calculation is h2 pbt -$9.7 million and assuming current prices for h2 , the full year pbt +$69.1 million.

always welcome to constructive comments !

Sotolo,yes the production numbers were a little disappointing although the recovery rates were better.

Likewise the net cash figure was better than I had expected, I assume the spend at Karo has been cut to the bone and possibly cost savings implemented at Tharisa. On these lower volumes I still expect a loss for H1.

If we enter a recession it will reduce vehicle sales and pgm consumption but I still expect a pgm deficit but obviously a reduced one. I am more uncertain on chrome. Anyway a good share price recovery today.

Still zilch on the solar farm at Tharisa, if Chariot is delaying this can't Total continue without them?

Ditto guys, Mr Trump is certainly making it difficult for us.

thanks for the nod on the article Moneyman. We were last told that the delayed Karo start would be 2026 but now "24-36 months" puts it back further into 2027-2028 which will take additional financing and increased costs. PP has mentioned before increasing to 2.5 million tonnes of chrome /year but that would need a big increase in mining and a 10%+ increase in Vulcan yields compared to what we have seen so far. The article also mentions a hybrid mining model at Karo "combining open-pit and mechanised underground operations" where as before we were told it would be purely open-pi t for the first 5-10 years. At least PP admits "access to capital remains a contraint" although only in January we were informed it was at an advanced state.

Getting back to basics, the January to March production numbers are out on Thursday. I am expecting production of PGM 39,500 ozs, chrome 396,000 tonnes. Average PGM basket $1419/oz, average chrome price $232/tonne. I expect a net cash position of $70 to 75 million ($89 million at the end of Dec).

Any other opinions out there?

Mulder, you talk about a whole YEAR but the Trump tariffs are the biggest for 90 to 120 years so let us have some perspective for the market to absorb the effects.

PAF is still up over the last week or so.

The current PAF market situation is only a tiny amount due to short sellers, today sellers (who are not short sellers) dramatically outweighed buyers. Unfortunately/fortunately on the way up PAF has attracted a certain level of day traders and speculators/entrepreneurs which probably includes many of us.

Gold is exempt from Trumps new tariffs and the current gold price of $3085 is similar to the close of last night so the PAF will not be affected .

Just reading that Germany is considering taking back the gold stocks it currently holds in the US.

Hi Moneyman, rather sceptical I would say the WPIC " would say that wouldn't they", it must have some effect but i i would agree that both platinum and palladium with remain in deficit this year. Good to see that as well as chrome both pgm's and gold are exempt from the new Trump tariffs.

Gold down about $40/oz today (currently $3087) and then it converts to a bigger £ loss due to the weaker USD.

Still an absolutely fantastic price but has been caused by the turmoil today, in the next day or so with the prevailing uncertainty the world will be buying gold again.

As you say, a good entry level. The USA will not have a tariff on gold.

Hi Moneyman, I have 't , but that would be good if the US increases domestic stainless steel production and imports chrome concentrates from S Africa but it is not going to help Chinese finished stainless steel exports to the US.

Just as 25 % higher import tax on steel and aluminium will increase the price of domestically produced cars which will reduce demand leading to people keeping their current car for a few more years which reduces pgm demand for catalytic converters

Hi Moneyman, yes our 40-42% chrome price this week is not $280 compared to $262.5 last week. But Mr Market is reading that a 54% tariff rate for Chinese exports to USA will knock chrome demand and the car tariff rate will cut car production particularly at the premium end which would reduce pgm demand.

On a similar note, in defence of THS, in the last full accounts, note 14 under Karo Platinum Project, the Company calculated that at a Karo basket price of $1855/oz an impairment on Karo was not necessary. $1855/oz might look incredibly high now but this was the 5 year average up to September 2024 (based on Pt $974;Pd $1857;Rh $11,685; Ir $3965;Ru $445). But the big problem now is that this 5 year average is steadily falling and up to today, the end of H1/2025 , is probably around $1810/oz and will mathematically continue to reduce with the current Karo spot price of $1369/oz does not significantly improve. Eventually an impairment looks inevitable, it could even be in the H1/2025 accounts but probably 6-12 months down the line?

On a positive note , both platinum and palladium have not both been above $1,000/oz at the same time since November last year, at the moment they are both in the $990's so it would be a psychological boost to see them both in 4 figures again.

I make it less than 0.5% different.On AIM 42.25 to 42.35p. On JSE 10.09 to 10.11 Rand @ exchange rate 23.79 = 42.41 to 42 50p.